Breslow made a quip about holding on to all 4 outfielders yesterday. He may, the inner circle decision making is very, very small. However, since the Bregman news broke, I’ve come to strongly suspect Rafaela or Duran is going to be traded before spring training to rearrange some of the offense.

I've seen rotation hierarchies that have Crawford far down them... I'm pretty sure if he's healthy he's going to be in the opening day rotation, he's more valuable to the team than Sandoval for instance, and pushing Early to the opening day roster over him makes little sense.

Red Sox in the 2000s 14 years with Ortiz as primary DH, 45 playoff wins, 3.2 per season. 5 years with Martinez as primary DH, 17 playoff wins, 3.4 per season. 7 years with neither of the two as primary DH, 2 playoff wins, 0.3 per season.

2026 projections keep populating fangraphs. Duran stays the most interesting to me, mostly because of how Passan says the Sox are valuing him.

Potentially very shitty game of musical chairs unfolding

How much with Roman Anthony swing in 2026?

No Red Sox arbitration cases later this winter, but I always think it's interesting what can and can not be argued in arbitration cases for players that do not settle today:

The front office regime change with the Nationals is obviously going to be interesting for Sox fans to watch from afar. Earlier this offseason this is how they started headlining their job postings for baseball related openings from interns to on-field.

So, @jcmccaffrey.bsky.social confirms the ESPN report that the Red Sox have an “aggressive” offer out to Bregman. idk what that means, but the higher Bergman’s price goes, the more I’d rather Bichette. And as always we should just sign Tucker. www.nytimes.com/athletic/694...

Bregman and Bichette are each talking to the Red Sox and Cubs but neither wants to sign before the other. Blue Jays too, but they are focused on Tucker. Justin Wilson is likely to retire unless he gets a fair deal from a legitimate World Series contender.

Bregman was on a 400 plate appearance rampage leading into his May quad injury. How much of that can be rekindled going forward, and for how long?

Here are the players that had the highest Chase Rates through their age-24 seasons, with a minimum of 1,000 plate appearances... and how their Chase Rates moved after that.

The dead period ends today. The first time teams can reach out to their players that are not on the 40-man roster since before Thanksgiving. A bunch of guys will be heading to Fort Myers soon. Basically gets the ball rolling on the season.

Rafaela has played 13 full months in a row in the majors. His 3 good offense months are the 3 months he has had an Isolated Power > .200 (league average .160).

Marcelo Mayer is switching from number 39 to 11 Nate Eaton is switching from number 40 to 18

I like Brendan Donovan, but the idea of trading a big package for two years of control of him is gross to me, especially the way the position players are currently constituted.

Eaton was better against lefties last season than he has been historically, but he overperformed his expected, and it was only 125 PA with nearly all damage done in AAA. We’ll see how the OF shakes out, but this is probably a more normal bench role than Ref.

Looking at some situational hitting stuff, and last year Yoshida went 12 for 12 in getting runners home from 3rd with less than 2 outs. League average for that is 51%, the Sox as a team were 51%. Tough time: 44% Duran 41% Story 38% Rafaela 31% Hamilton 31% Wong 27% Narvaez

2025 closest affinity by quality of contact + walks + strikeouts

Contreras' OBP and Power neighbors the last 2 seasons

I like Dobbins. Bulldog, perfectly fine if he is the last guy in a rotation for a while type, but the Sox have better options now, and better options coming, and he needs major whiff and k improvement to get beyond that. Going to a much better situation for himself.

Contreras has been a white whale of mine for years. Love the addition.

Kristian Campbell crushes a baseball, seems like a questionable double ruling.

Carrabis said 5-6 years on his show this morning, and Passan mention possibly 6 years in his article today. Thought to be around $150M

The rumor going around last night about Bregman and the Dbacks was that they were around the projected years and money most outlets generally projected for him in October. Some AZ media seems to be sending up caution flags today, but the info was well-placed. Has some at Fenway feeling nerves today.

The need for power aside, the amount of plate appearances from players that make pitchers work who are now either free agents, gone, broken, or unwanted is kind of alarming lol

Stunning trade with Luis Perales heading to Paul Toboni's Nats. Jake Bennett LHP 6'6 240 ... plus extension ... 92-93, top 96 ... lower arm slot ... devastating change vs RHH ... breaking balls only 20% of the time ... excellent control ... seen as a sure-fire 3/4 starter ... Nats #6 prospect.

FSG spending with Breslow

One of 9 players last year with above average walks, strikeout avoidance, and power. The others: Soto Springer Rice Marte Tucker Freeman Lindor Ramirez

The start of tonight's Sox Prospects podcast hits on a lot of stuff I've been thinking about recently. The way the team is constructed. The current balance of prospects. The clear need to simply pay for offensive talent to fill needs to slow unsustainable farm depletion.

Passan today: "The Royals have been active on the trade market too, looking to acquire another outfielder. They have discussed acquiring Jarren Duran from the Boston Red Sox...."

Nice to see Cotillo link the Sox to Willson Contreras. Consistently a top 10 right-handed batter in MLB. 2023-2025: 9th with a .365 xwOBA; Alonso (.365). 2024-2025: 9th with a .361 xwOBA; Alonso (.364). 2025 Big April discrepancy. May through September, Contreras 9th (.368 xwOBA); Alonso (.366).

Might take a week to get back to emotional equilibrium after that Stuart Scott 30 for 30

one of the more interesting final dispatches out of the winter meetings that had my ears perk up

After the Alonso signing update, here's fangraphs' ranking of position players talent in the AL East by projected war. 1. 29.7 Yankees 3. 28.9 Orioles 5. 27.4 Blue Jays 20. 22.1 Rays 22. 21.6 Red Sox

www.bostonglobe.com/2025/12/09/s... via @timbhealey.bsky.social

Isaiah Jackson had a 25% chase rate, 76% contact rate, and 108 mph 90th percentile exit velocity this year. Of the NCAA players that had the largest exit velo gains in 2025, the Red Sox now have Maximus Martin, Adonys Guzman, Henry Godbout and Isaiah Jackson from the Top 11. 🤔

2025 draftees the Red Sox have traded for in the last three weeks: $496,500 Adonys Guzman (5 PA) $297,500 Isaiah Jackson (37 PA) $230,000 Luke Heyman (0 PA)

I like Bichette a lot. He's a peculiar and special hitter. I think he could be able to do some outrageous BABIP-related shit at Fenway. Trying to find guys in the same vein actually led to a couple of names that have been batted around. A. Jorge Polanco B. Bo Bichette C. Vinnie Pasquantino

Jeff Kent's 10 best seasons: 44.8 fWAR Dustin Pedroia's 10 best seasons: 44.9 fWAR Kent, MVP, 5x All-Star 55.4 career WAR, 35.8 7yr-peak, 45.6 JAWS, 3.9 WAR/162 Pedroia, MVP, 4x All-Star, 2x World Series 51.8 career WAR, 40.9 7yr-peak, 46.4 JAWS, 5.6 WAR/16

This is why I'm sure Gray's ERA was an afterthought in the Sox deciding to target him, and why ERA is going to be mostly an afterthought in all pitching acquisitions around baseball this winter. On social media, not so much the case.

I don't know how everyone sees the current pitching depth, but this is how I do. Been seeing people expecting Oviedo to be in the bullpen, which seems crazy. I don't think this whole group makes it to Fort Myers.

Oviedo came back from surgery with a supercharged fastball

Oviedo vs. Anthony

Long time Johan Oviedo fan, but he still needs to put it all together. Occasionally looks like a monster, and has lots in the tool chest. Perfectly fine using Garcia here, I thought he was being considerably overrated. Wouldn't be surprised if Arias gets used the same way this winter.