In this week’s Scribblings, I ask if we can predict the future. I don’t think so. hayest.substack.com/p/scribbling...

The Dept of Culture has not exactly been a powerhouse of anything...

I don't often post here about my day job in labour relations, but here is something from LinkedIn I wrote about the passing of one of the great labour relations academics of our time, Bob McKensie. www.linkedin.com/pulse/memory...

Nuts. Like you can do deals like that in a day over the phone or in a couple of hours. Not the way things work. www.ft.com/content/359b...

Is Trump not paying back tariffs to all those countries he said were paying the US zillions? Or were his tariffs just a tax on US consumers after all? www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

If the UK is this difficult to negotiate with outside, why let them inside? Who needs a wrecking ball at the table? www.ft.com/content/a1f2...

A bit of a light-hearted piece this week. hayest.substack.com/p/scribbling

No, no serious candidates. Just a comedy candidate to make a laughing stock of Farage. Do not feed his ego.

First, he turns up and says he still wants Greeland. Now he wants to end all trade between Spain and the US. Including "visits". Does the "visits" thing cut two ways? No Americans to visit Spain? You could not make this stuff up. www.politico.eu/article/trum...

What Farage will hate most is mockery and being made a laughing stock, his brilliant "wheeze" blowing up in his face.

I see Farage asked in his address to the nation yesterday: "What's wrong with making money?" Nothing. But in his case, he did not "make" money; he was given the money. On the assumption that in this world, there is nothing for nothing, the question remains: what did he do in return for the money?

It is also worth asking what the turnout in such a non-election is likely to be? "Nige of the People" will find it difficult to claim that his sins have been washed clean if the turnout is less than 20%.

Don't you just love the idea that the election for the ages - Nige v The Establishment - will turn out to be just Nige v Count Binface and other assorted fruitcakes. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

From what I read, I presume Farage thinks that if he stands for election and is reelected, that somehow washes away all the money-grifting he stands accused of. The electors of Clacton do not have the power to absolve him of any financial sins he may have committed. Things don't work that way.

As someone who lives in France and follows French politics closely, this seems to me to be the worst possible ruling for Le Pen and the RN. She can run for President as a criminal, wearing an ankle bracelet. Her party stole European money. No ifs, no buts.

Just about to pop across the border from France to Belgium for a celebratory glass of something.

This seems to me to be a reasonable analysis of matters. Would the EU have made the progress it has made if the UK were still inside, blocking all and every initiative as it was its habit? The EU will not be in any rush to welcome the cuckoo back into the nest. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Whatever happened to the FIFA mantra that football should be free of political interference? www.nytimes.com/2026/07/05/u...

Could the UK break up if a Farage government came to power? And why won’t the EU give the UK a say in EU decision-making? My Scribblings this Sunday. hayest.substack.com/p/scribbling...

Was it not the Luxembourg PM who said during the Brexit negotiations: The UK used to be in with lots of opt-outs. Now they are out they want lots of opt-ins. Seems like nothing has changed. Always been this way, We want a special deal because we British are exceptional.

As if a country that walked out of the EU, hoping that Brexit would lead to a collapse of the EU as other countries followed it out, which, of course, did not happen, is going to be given a decision-making role in the EU. The UK needs to get real. www.ft.com/content/c5b0...

10 years ago today, the UK voted to leave the EU. I have followed the Brexit process extensively over those 10 years. Today, some thoughts on how I see things 10 years on. hayest.substack.com/p/scribbling...

That the UK might one day again join the EU will only become a possibility when all the Brexit actors, on both sides, have left the stage. And who knows what state the world will be in at that time? All political calculations will be different. www.ft.com/content/ac01...

This week, some thoughts on the Iran deal and the madman theory of negotiations. No Scribblings next Sunday as I am away, but a special on Tuesday on Brexit, ten years to the day that the UK voted to leave. hayest.substack.com/p/scribbling...

In this week’s Scribblings, a few thoughts on trade unions in light of their continuing declining membership. hayest.substack.com/p/scribbling...

In this week’s Scribblings, I outline why I think 27 of the EU/EEA member states have missed today’s deadline for transposing the Pay Transparency Directive into national law. hayest.substack.com/p/scribbling...

In this week’s Scribblings, some thoughts on the Iran war and the art of getting it wrong. hayest.substack.com/p/scribbling...

In this week’s Scribblings, I write about Noam Scheiber’s book “Mutiny: The Rise and Revolt of the College-Educated Working Class” in the US. Scheiber reports on labour issues for the New York Times. hayest.substack.com/p/scribbling...

I think it was Einstein who said that 'Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." The EU is not going to let the UK cherry-pick the Single Market, especially as it continues to reject FOM. Want SM access? Join the EEA. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

I was not aware that Nandy actually existed. Is anyone aware of anything she has actually done in the area covered by her ministerial portfolio?

Some thoughts in this week’s Scribblings following a week in London. hayest.substack.com/p/scribbling...

There is a lot of sense in this from Martin Wolf. I would keep the 1 MP per constituency, but have people vote 1,2,3,4 with the lowest candidate eliminated and their second preference distributed until someone gets over 50%. www.ft.com/content/1a5a...

In this week’s Scribblings, European reflections on an electoral revolution in the UK. hayest.substack.com/p/scribbling...

They will be looking at these results in Brussels as asking questions about the sustainability of any deal the EU might do with the UK. I regret this because I would very much like to see the UK back in the EU (terms and conditions apply) but is it realistic politics in the UK?

I think I have being saying the same thing for a long time.

An impossible ask. Which is why the UK may never join the EU again. Leopards do not change their spots.

Should the US not be paying back this money to all those foreign countries Trump slapped with a tariff? Were they not the ones he claimed were paying his tariffs to enrich the US? The billions he was taking in. Seems like it was coming from US businesses instead. www.ft.com/content/1267...

Can employees dictate to a company what businesses it should be in or who it should do business with? Some thoughts on this in this week’s Scribblings. hayest.substack.com/p/scribbling...

This is a great piece by Simon Nixon. He makes the economic case for why the UK should join the EU in compelling terms. But the political window may be smaller than he thinks, and the EU may not be as open-armed as many in the European movement believe. Leaving left a bitter legacy.

Is this not the nub of the problem? The continual UK demands for opt-outs? Cake and eat it and all that stuff. And cherry-picking. The same old song, just with different singers. www.ft.com/content/b1d1...

Back after a week away, where I spent a pleasant weekend with some old labour relations friends, and made some new friends, in Sitges. So, I am back this week with some thoughts on the impact of AI on jobs and politics. hayest.substack.com/p/scribbling...

Trump again sends two estate agents to negotiate with Iran. Rubio stays home. I never thought I'd miss Henry Kissinger.

Hey, and here was I believing President Trump when he said that all these tariffs were being paid by foreigners. Gosh, he must have been wrong about that. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

That the US/Iran talks ended without an agreement is not surprising. If you send a VP who has never negotiated anything in his life, along with two estate agents, as your negotiating team, what do you expect?

Trump has always worked to the "madman" theory of negotiations - behave in an unpredictable and irrational fashion, and the other side will fold. But what happens to this theory when the other side also acts in the same way? Iran is not folding, and Trump is reduced to tantrums.

In this week’s Scribblings I come back to one of my favourite topics, Brexit. Some of you might note the Star Wars reference in the title. But let it be said that the current Labour leadership are no Jedi. hayest.substack.com/p/scribbling...

If I recall properly, the Strait was wide open to shipping before the US attacked without consulting anyone other then the Israelis. The US broke it and is now demanding that others fix it. "Nothing to do with me, guv" seems to be the approach.

I think it is fair to say that Starmer can pivot all he wants, but as long as he keeps his "3 Nos" he is not going to get far. Why would existing members of the EU let the UK pick n' mix the bits of the EU they like while rejecting the rest? They won't. www.ft.com/content/9f3d...

You go to war to weaken an opponent and end up leaving them stronger and with a chokehold on the global economy. Some victory. The madman theory of victory.

This week, more comments on the Iranian war from the perspective of labour negotiations. hayest.substack.com/p/scribbling...