Kevin Carmichael
@kevincarmichael.bsky.social
đ€ 405
đ„ 2
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Economics Columnist, The Logic
Canadians ought to be observing Trump's attacks on the Fed with a mix of dismay and relief. Imagine if we had two strongman leaders attempting to fire central bankers at the same time? My latest:
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Carmichael: There's upside for Canada in Trump's attack on the Fed - The Logic
The U.S. president's penchant for self-harm offers opportunity for stable democraciesâif their leaders don't waste it
https://thelogic.co/comment/carmichael-trump-fed-attack/
6 months ago
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My latest is on the danger of binary thinking.
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Carmichael: Mark Carney has to play Trump like a chess master, not a hockey player settling scores - The Logic
Carney must deal with a U.S. president who plays by the rules of professional wrestling, where narrative arcs decide outcomes.
https://thelogic.co/comment/carney-trump-tariff-chess/
6 months ago
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There are two stories unfolding in Canada's hiring numbers. One is resilience. There other, sacrifice. My latest:
thelogic.co/comment/carm...
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Carmichael: Canada's young workers are getting crushed - The Logic
Youth and long-term unemployment are at a near 30-year peak. Those scars wonât heal easily.
https://thelogic.co/comment/carmichael-youth-unemployment/
7 months ago
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Climate change is being crowded out of the conversation. We might need to learn to cope with more than one existential threat at a time. My latest:
thelogic.co/comment/carm...
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Carmichael: We donât have time for a climate finance slowdown - The Logic
The politics have gotten more complicated, but the threat of climate change still makes everything else seem small.
https://thelogic.co/comment/carmichael-we-dont-have-time-for-a-climate-finance-slowdown/
8 months ago
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The Logic went west last week to talk about the productivity crisis. In Calgary, the conversation was dominated by politics. It wasn't a waste. Productivity and politics are inextricably linked. My latest:
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Carmichael: Carney canât fix Canada without mending ties with Alberta - The Logic
The countryâs stagnant productivity might confound economists and decision-makers because they spend too little time thinking about the dynamics of power
https://thelogic.co/comment/carmichael-carney-cant-fix-canada-without-mending-ties-with-alberta/
9 months ago
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Canada's economic immune system is weak. That means the next few years will be hard. But there's a newfound resolve to get in shape and that's kind of exciting. My latest:
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Carmichael: What Mark Carney must do next - The Logic
The hard times have already begun. There isnât a moment to waste
https://thelogic.co/comment/carmichael-what-mark-carney-must-do-next/
10 months ago
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Expertise mounts a comeback. My latest:
thelogic.co/comment/carm...
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Carmichael: Mark Carneyâs win shows anti-elitism has its limits - The Logic
With Canada under threat, most of its voters rushed to back the candidate with the flashiest CV.
https://thelogic.co/comment/carmichael-mark-carneys-win-shows-anti-elitism-has-its-limits/
10 months ago
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I've been receiving angry emails about this one. Please read beyond the headline.
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Kevin Carmichael: Canada is alone. It has only itself to blame - The Logic
This country has long gotten a free ride. The rest of the world has noticed.
https://thelogic.co/comment/carmichael-canada-is-alone-it-has-only-itself-to-blame/
10 months ago
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Why solving the Canadian economy's productivity crisis starts with home building. My latest:
thelogic.co/news/special...
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Canada canât fix its productivity crisis without fixing housing first - The Logic
The construction industry accounts for about seven per cent of Canadaâs GDP. It might also be the countryâs least productive industry.
https://thelogic.co/news/special-report/productivity-crisis-fixing-housing/
10 months ago
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What's scarier than tariffs? My latest:
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Carmichael: The âLiberation Dayâ fallout has seized the Bank of Canadaâs attention - The Logic
If the U.S. dollar stops being the worldâs reserve currency, the ripples will be felt everywhere
https://thelogic.co/comment/carmichael-the-liberation-day-fallout-has-seized-the-bank-of-canadas-attention/
10 months ago
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My take on the latest from the Bank of Canada:
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Bank of Canada holds key interest rate steady at 2.75% - The Logic
Trumpâs aggressive trade moves could cause recession, Macklem warns
https://thelogic.co/news/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-april-2025/
11 months ago
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Emergency column on the Great Repricing. Enjoy the relief rallies, but don't get drunk on them. The adjustment is going to hurt, pretty sure.
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Carmichael: The Trump shock marks the end of global finance as weâve known it - The Logic
The world will adjust, but the commercial relationships that have created much of the worldâs wealth are over.
https://thelogic.co/comment/carmichael-the-trump-shock-marks-the-end-of-global-finance-as-weve-known-it/
11 months ago
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How to get over in the age of Trump. My latest:
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Carmichael: Economics canât explain Trump. Professional wrestling can - The Logic
Like the WWE, the U.S. president is a master of directing the power of the crowd.
https://thelogic.co/comment/carmichael-economics-cant-explain-trump-professional-wrestling-can/
11 months ago
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The stakes have rarely been higher. The promises in Canada's election campaign, so far, don't meet the moment. My latest:
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Carmichael: Carney and Poilievre's tax-cut promises are a major election distraction - The Logic
The cost of living is an issue, but it's no longer a crisis. Canadians must remain focused on the real emergency.
https://thelogic.co/comment/kevin-carmichael-carney-poilievre-tax-cut-promises-distraction/
11 months ago
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It's the uncertainty, stupid. My latest:
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Carmichael: The looming election plunges Canadaâs businesses deeper into uncertainty - The Logic
https://thelogic.co/comment/kevin-carmichael-election-canada-businesses-uncertainty/
11 months ago
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In lieu of a unity government, there's a way Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre could start work on fixing the economy immediately. My latest:
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Carmichael: In the battle of Carney and Poilievre, there's more at stake than who wins - The Logic
Canadian society has begun to corrode. Rebuilding trust will be a key part of rebuilding the economy.
https://thelogic.co/comment/kevin-carmichael-mark-carney-pierre-poilievre-battle/
12 months ago
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No Canadian central bank governor has had to make more consequential decisions than Tiff Macklem. They keep getting harder. My latest:
thelogic.co/comment/kevi...
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Carmichael: The Bank of Canadaâs interest rate decision just got a lot more complicated - The Logic
The trade war could throw a wrench into the central bankâs plans
https://thelogic.co/comment/kevin-carmichael-bank-of-canada-interest-rate-decision/
12 months ago
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Perhaps the most shocking event of the past 24 hours.
add a skeleton here at some point
12 months ago
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Life is about to get a little difficult for Canada. Maybe that's just what we needed. My latest:
thelogic.co/comment/kevi...
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Carmichael: To survive Trump, Canada needs to rebuild its east-west ties - The Logic
U.S. trade agreements have made Canada richer, but less reliant on ourselves. That needs to change.
https://thelogic.co/comment/kevin-carmichael-rebuild-east-west-ties-trade-war/
12 months ago
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Canada's governments are putting their bazookas on the table. Hope those things come with guidance systems. My latest:
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Carmichael: Canada's premiers are ready to splash the cash to survive a trade war - The Logic
Nobodyâs in the mood for austerity this budget season.
https://thelogic.co/comment/kevin-carmichael-canada-premiers-trade-war/
12 months ago
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On Canada's housing crisis. My latest:
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Carmichael: We have a chance to be bold on housing. Letâs get creative - The Logic
Maybe itâs time to rethink the economic model thatâs created one of Canadaâs biggest problems.
https://thelogic.co/comment/carmichael-we-have-a-chance-to-be-bold-on-housing-lets-get-creative/
about 1 year ago
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The Bank of Canada won't be coming to the rescue this time. My latest:
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Carmichael: Thereâs no easy way to fight inflation in a trade war - The Logic
Donât expect the Bank of Canada or the countryâs CEOs to ride to the rescue, either
https://thelogic.co/comment/carmichael-theres-no-easy-way-to-fight-inflation-in-a-trade-war/
about 1 year ago
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In professional wrestling, "jobbers" are there to make the stars look good. But sometimes, when they perform their roles exceptionally well, the stars lose control of the narrative and the audience sides with the jobbers. My latest:
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Carmichael: Trump defies the laws of economics because he doesnât believe in them - The Logic
In early January, when Donald Trump was building his chaos machine like a child with a Meccano set, Canadian venture investor Chris Neumann noticed the then president-elect was choosing some unusual p...
https://thelogic.co/comment/kevin-carmichael-laws-of-economics-defiance/
about 1 year ago
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How to win a trade war. My latest:
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Carmichael: Canada still faces a crisis. We canât afford to waste it - The Logic
Our prospects depend on our leaders abandoning business as usual
https://thelogic.co/comment/kevin-carmichael-canada-crisis-leadership/
about 1 year ago
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My take on the latest from the Bank of Canada:
thelogic.co/news/bank-of...
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The Bank of Canada cuts its key interest rate as tariffs loom - The Logic
Quarter-point cut comes with a warning that a trade war would test the âresilience of Canadaâs economyâ
https://thelogic.co/news/bank-of-canada-rate-tariffs/?utm_source=The+Logic+Master+List&utm_campaign=34911478bb-The+Bank+of+Canada+cuts+its+key+interest+rate&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-c3e8c5a4ef-276023736
about 1 year ago
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Some say the right response to Trump tariffs would be dollar-for-dollar retaliation. Some say the right response would be to resist the urge to retaliate and focus on resiliency. It needn't be a binary choice. My latest:
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Carmichael: The art of trade war - The Logic
Canada will need both fighters and philosophers to survive the next four years.
https://thelogic.co/comment/kevin-carmichael-trade-war/
about 1 year ago
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Trade diversification is surfacing as a response to Trump tariffs. Good idea. Lots of opportunity, even in this strange new world. Keep one thing in mind, though: Canada has lots of trade deals, but not many traders. My latest:
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Carmichael: Canada doesnât need more trade dealsâit needs more traders - The Logic
The best way to fight Trumpâs trade policy is to focus on the home front.
https://thelogic.co/comment/carmichael-canada-doesnt-need-more-trade-deals-it-needs-more-traders/
about 1 year ago
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Trump's trade policy represents an external shock like COVID-19 and the great financial crisis. That doesn't mean those playbooks would work this time, however. My latest:
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Carmichael: Overspending could worsen the shock of Trumpâs tariffs - The Logic
Our instinct is to cushion the blow. Our focus needs to be on resilience.
https://thelogic.co/comment/carmichael-overspending-could-worsen-the-shock-of-trumps-tariffs/
about 1 year ago
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Pierre Poilievre could be good for the economy. Too bad he's such an unreliable narrator. My latest:
thelogic.co/comment/kevi...
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Carmichael: A hundred and one minutes with Pierre Poilievre - The Logic
What we can learn from the Conservative leaderâs expansive conversation with Jordan Peterson.
https://thelogic.co/comment/kevin-carmichael-pierre-poilievre-jordan-peterson-conversation/
about 1 year ago
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Justin Trudeau's legacy will be seen by most as a failure. Why? Good ideas aren't enough. My latest:
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Carmichael: Goodbye to Trudeaunomics and its failures - The Logic
The Justin Trudeau era is a cautionary tale for those who believe itâs simple to turn ideas into change.
https://thelogic.co/comment/kevin-carmichael-trudeau-resignation-economy-failures/
about 1 year ago
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An early Canadian election seems inevitable. Many want one. There's another way. My latest:
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Carmichael: Chaos in Ottawa offers a chance for Canada to do better - The Logic
A reminder for our political class: youâll be measured by what you do with power, not how many elections you win.
https://thelogic.co/comment/kevin-carmichael-ottawa-freeland-chaos/
about 1 year ago
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My take on the day's historic events:
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Carmichael: Freelandâs fiscal update reveals campaign against gimmickry - The Logic
Unlike previous financial plans, her final one was dominated by policies aimed at investment rather than stoking consumption
https://thelogic.co/comment/kevin-carmichael-freeland-resignation-uncertainty/
about 1 year ago
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My latest: Will the FES show Freeland finally means business?
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Carmichael: Will the FES show Freeland finally means business? - The Logic
The government may be starting to see that tax policy and regulation are holding us back.
https://thelogic.co/comment/kevin-carmichael-chrystia-freeland-fall-economic-statement/
about 1 year ago
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My take on the Bank of Canada's second consecutive half-point rate cut:
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Kevin Carmichael on LinkedIn: Bank of Canada cuts key interest rate to 3.25% - The Logic
My take on the BoC's second consecutive half-point rate cut:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kevin-carmichael-44034456_bank-of-canada-cuts-key-interest-rate-to-activity-7272630223299383299-EWFp?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
about 1 year ago
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My latest: A pair of little books expose
#cdnecon's
big problem.
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Carmichael: A pair of little books expose the economy's big problem - The Logic
In Canada, the competitive impulse has been dulled by monopoly and oligopoly.
https://thelogic.co/comment/kevin-carmichael-canada-economy-big-problem/
about 1 year ago
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My latest: Why parliamentary shenanigans matter to the economy.
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Carmichael: Parliamentary shenanigans matter to the economy - The Logic
Look no further than the plight of Canadian fintechs.
https://thelogic.co/comment/kevin-carmichael-parliamentary-shenanigans-economy/
about 1 year ago
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My latest: The first thing to do about Trump's tariff plan
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Carmichael: The first thing to do about Trump's tariff threat - The Logic
Trumpâs 25 per cent levy would hit the Canadian economy hard. But there are reasons to avoid all-out panic.
https://thelogic.co/comment/trump-tariff-canada-response-plan/
about 1 year ago
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I got a little time with Chrystia Freeland yesterday. Her response to the techlash against her plan to raise capital gains taxes:
thelogic.co/news/freelan...
almost 2 years ago
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Why
#cdnpoli's
crackdown on
#cdnecon's
"predatory" lenders probably is more complicated than you think. My latest:
thelogic.co/comment/kevi...
almost 2 years ago
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It's great the Canadian intelligentsia has discovered
#cdnecon
has a productivity problem, but let's pump the brakes a little before
#cdnpoli
does something stupid. My latest:
thelogic.co/comment/carm...
almost 2 years ago
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If Canada is a "trading nation," why do we talk so little about trade? My latest:
thelogic.co/comment/kevi...
almost 2 years ago
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Something from me on Brian Mulroney's legacy and what today's politicians could learn from it:
thelogic.co/comment/kevi...
almost 2 years ago
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Why Canada's fiscal hawks are focused on the wrong target. My latest:
thelogic.co/comment/carm...
almost 2 years ago
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Why fixing Canada's productivity problem might require ending our love affair with small business. My latest:
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Carmichael: Breaking up with small business - The Logic
Small may be beautiful, but itâs given us an economy thatâs less than the sum of its parts.
https://thelogic.co/comment/carmichael-breaking-up-with-small-business/
almost 2 years ago
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Pierre Poilievre popped up on Bay Street recently to talk about the economy. It was weird, but he did sketch the beginning of an economic plan. My thoughts:
thelogic.co/comment/poil...
about 2 years ago
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#openbanking
could be huge for Canada's
#economy
. Its backers might need a better story to get it over the line. My latest:
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Kevin Carmichael: Is an open banking breakthrough finally on the horizon? - The Logic
There are signs the long-delayed policy may finally be gaining traction in Ottawa.
https://thelogic.co/opinion/carmichael-is-an-open-banking-breakthrough-finally-on-the-horizon/
over 2 years ago
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Inflation in Canada is being fuelled by a bad policy mix. The finance minister could do something about in next week. My latest on the
#economy
:
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Kevin Carmichael: Is Freeland serious about taming inflation? The fiscal update is a chance to prove...
With the fall economic statement 2023, the finance minister will play a key role in determining where interest rates go from here.
https://thelogic.co/opinion/carmichael-is-freeland-serious-about-taming-inflation-she-can-prove-it-in-her-fall-economic-statement/
over 2 years ago
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