Robert Patman
@robertgpatman.bsky.social
đ€ 204
đ„ 8
đ 96
Distinguished Professor of International Relations, University of Otago, New Zealand.
As Trump rewrites the rules in Venezuela, NZ faces a foreign policy reckoning
theconversation.com/as-trump-rew...
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As Trump rewrites the rules in Venezuela, NZ faces a foreign policy reckoning
The US intervention in Venezuela makes it clear NZâs âsoftly softlyâ foreign policy isnât a feasible long-term response to a shifting world order.
https://theconversation.com/as-trump-rewrites-the-rules-in-venezuela-nz-faces-a-foreign-policy-reckoning-272680?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=bylineblueskybutton
3 days ago
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Jack Nyhof and I discuss Trump's opposition to an international rules-based order and the implications for Australia and New Zealand:
www.skynews.com.au/world-news/u...
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Donald Trump moving away from international ârules-based orderâ
University of Otago Department of Politics Professor Robert Patman claims US President Donald Trump is moving away from an international ârules-based orderâ. âThatâs been a pattern of Trumpâs second term in the White House,â Mr Patman told Sky News Australia. âMr Trump made it quite clear he has little time for international law or international institutions unless they work in the interest of America first.â
https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/united-states/donald-trump-moving-away-from-international-rulesbased-order/video/e445ed255415589b5ab3f52f7a5c5c98
6 days ago
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Jack Nyhof and I discuss the territorial sticking point in Trump's Ukraine peace plan:
www.skynews.com.au/world-news/g...
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âGame breakerâ: Territorial âsticking pointâ threatens Ukraine peace deal
University of Otago Department of Politics Professor Robert Patman claims the territorial âsticking pointâ in the Ukraine peace deal is a âgame breakerâ. âPresident Trump, when he said 95 per cent deal has nearly been done,â Mr Patman told Sky News Australia. âThe five per cent, given itâs based on a territorial sticking point, looks like it could be more than a thorny sticking point, but actually a game breaker.â
https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/global-affairs/game-breaker-territorial-sticking-point-threatens-ukraine-peace-deal/video/a10b44a332ec5068afe0a8ee2e45340c
6 days ago
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Lee Feinstein, Peter Bale, Bernard Hickey and I discuss Trump's National Security Strategy document and whether the intern. rules-based order is finished. Discussion begins 20 mins into show.
www.youtube.com/live/VrI_o6e...
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The Hoon for Thursday 18th December 2025
YouTube video by The Hoon
https://www.youtube.com/live/VrI_o6enAIs?si=F1cPQRtIclX-6QuM
19 days ago
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Reflecting on 2025, it is evident that New Zealand's foreign policy lacked robustness in upholding a system of rules-based trade and diplomacy:
www.odt.co.nz/news/world/g...
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Global Insight: 'Soft power counts' in troubled times
The last episode of Global Insight for 2025 reviews the biggest stories of the year.
https://www.odt.co.nz/news/world/global-insight-soft-power-counts-troubled-times
19 days ago
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Trumpâs National Security Strategy document now leaves the National-led coalition government with little room to avoid reassessing its stated goal of closer strategic alignment with the US.
theconversation.com/trumps-new-s...
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Trumpâs new security strategy exposes the limits of NZâs âsoftly-softlyâ diplomacy
The new US National Security Strategy marks a historic break â and a problem for the NZ governmentâs policy of closer strategic alignment with Washington.
https://theconversation.com/trumps-new-security-strategy-exposes-the-limits-of-nzs-softly-softly-diplomacy-272354
20 days ago
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Bruce Munro and I discuss the changing dynamics of the Ukraine conflict and how Zelenskyy is now taking the war into Russia's homeland on a consistent basis.
youtu.be/_39HmMIfmKE?...
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Ukraine takes the war to Putin's Russia
YouTube video by Robert Patman
https://youtu.be/_39HmMIfmKE?si=br1Mu7476_WmnJuD
2 months ago
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Bernard Hickey, Peter Bale and I analyse the Xi Jinping - Trump APEC meeting and Christopher Luxon's brief encounter with the US president. Discussion begins at 5.25 mark.
www.youtube.com/live/ji3mlnf...
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The Hoon for Thursday 30th October 2025
YouTube video by The Hoon
https://www.youtube.com/live/ji3mlnfAFXY?si=15KKpluyiPaofYw6
2 months ago
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Bernard Hickey, Peter Bale and I discuss how the economic squeeze is beginning to impact Putin's invasion of Ukraine and how China is managing the Trump challenge. Discussion begins at around 5.20' mark. The Hoon for Thursday 23rd October 2025
youtube.com/live/zLVNuOS...
via @YouTube
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The Hoon for Thursday 23rd October 2025
YouTube video by The Hoon
https://youtube.com/live/zLVNuOScG0s?si=H9buyL_kzFvkTmRz
2 months ago
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New Zealand has no national interest in any settlement in Ukraine that compromises the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity:
youtu.be/lE-87nzxyGU?...
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NZ has no interest in Ukraine deal that rewards Putin's invasion
YouTube video by Robert Patman
https://youtu.be/lE-87nzxyGU?si=L6yPWfNtcIcFM0y0
2 months ago
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This is a timely and excellent documentary on New Zealand government's response to the two-year catastrophic conflict in Gaza:
www.thearts.co.nz/boosted/proj...
2 months ago
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It will pay for NZ to be sceptical about Trump's peace plan
newsroom.co.nz/2025/10/03/i...
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It will pay for NZ to be sceptical about Trump's peace plan
Opinion from Otago University: NZâs approach to recognising Palestine as a state has been puzzling. How might that change if Trumpâs peace plan succeeds?
https://newsroom.co.nz/2025/10/03/it-pays-to-be-sceptical-about-trumps-peace-plan/
3 months ago
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By not recognising a Palestinian state, NZ puts its own hard-won reputation on the line
theconversation.com/by-not-recog...
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By not recognising a Palestinian state, NZ puts its own hard-won reputation on the line
By not joining its close allies over the question of Palestinian statehood, NZ risks being âon the wrong side of historyâ.
https://theconversation.com/by-not-recognising-a-palestinian-state-nz-puts-its-own-hard-won-reputation-on-the-line-266224?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=bylineblueskybutton
3 months ago
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President Trump's self-congratulatory and bizarre UN General Assembly address seems to confirm US relative decline and increasing marginalisation:
www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/internati...
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International relations professor on President Trump's controversial UN General Assembly address
International relations Professor Robert Patman gives his take on Donald Trump's UN General Assembly address. Video / NZ Herald
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/international-relations-professor-on-president-trumps-controversial-un-general-assembly-address/7ULGHBLNPI24HXL5CBT3VHXWPE/
4 months ago
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Visit of former NZ Prime Ministers, Helen Clark and John Key, reflects both a difficult geopolitical environment and a concern to safeguard what is a vital trade relationship for NZ:
youtu.be/cEweBiY8Jx4?...
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Former NZ Prime Ministers attend China's Victory Parade
YouTube video by Robert Patman
https://youtu.be/cEweBiY8Jx4?feature=shared
4 months ago
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Bruce Munro and I discuss the latest ceasefire proposal to end Gaza conflict and consider some of the major lessons of this appalling crisis:
youtu.be/-OwAGCNtkx4?...
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Gaza catastrophe underlines utter failure of UNSC
YouTube video by Robert Patman
https://youtu.be/-OwAGCNtkx4?feature=shared
4 months ago
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If New Zealand really believes in an rules-based international order, it cannot remain silent on a catastrophe in Gaza which is undermining that vision:
youtu.be/mZewY_OE8Yg?...
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NZ cannot remain silent about Gaza catastrophe
YouTube video by Robert Patman
https://youtu.be/mZewY_OE8Yg?feature=shared
4 months ago
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Netanyahu's pledge to take full control of Gaza will not improve Israel's security. Interview, Ryan Bridge, NZ Herald Now, 8 Aug. 2025:
www.nzherald.co.nz/video/herald...
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Netanyahu declares intention to take full control of Gaza
International Relations Professor Robert Patman speaks about Benjamin Netanyahu's intention to take full control of Gaza. Video / Herald NOW
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/video/herald-now/netanyahu-declares-intention-to-take-full-control-of-gaza/KH7QFZ7NP5WV2VFYLXCRUT34HU/
5 months ago
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Why NZ must resist the trashing of international lawÂ
newsroom.co.nz/2025/07/27/w...
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Why NZ must resist the trashing of international law
Opinion from Otago University: Confronted with the steady decline of the international rules-based order, smaller powers like NZ canât rely on UN veto-wielding states. They have to take their own acti...
https://newsroom.co.nz/2025/07/27/why-nz-must-resist-the-trashing-of-international-law/
6 months ago
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Andrew Urquhart and I discuss the prospects of a peace deal between Israel and Hamas. The absence of any recognition of the Palestinian right to political self-determination may mean any peace deal reached will likely be precarious and short-term in nature:
youtu.be/q83XCbQ0iNs?...
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Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Deal: Professor Robert Patman Unpacks Peace Talks
YouTube video by Rhema
https://youtu.be/q83XCbQ0iNs?feature=shared
6 months ago
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The New Zealand government's desire not to offend the Trump administration in the Middle East has diluted the country's commitment to the international rules-based order:
thespinoff.co.nz/politics/07-...
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Appeasing Trump in the Middle East is not cost-free for New Zealand
The governmentâs responses to recent events in the Middle East indicate that its desire not to offend the Trump administration has compromised New Zealandâs commitment to uphold an international rules...
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/07-07-2025/appeasing-trump-in-the-middle-east-is-not-cost-free-for-new-zealand
6 months ago
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Peter Bale, Treasa Dunworth, Jonathan Lyons and I discuss the geopolitics of Israel's preemptive attack on Iran and the fallout from Trump's willingness to join the Israeli attacks on The Hoon, 26 June 2025:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=yN1Z...
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The Hoon for Thursday 26th June 2025
YouTube video by The Hoon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yN1ZXOXJ9V4
6 months ago
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Luxon's trips to China and NATO summit were generally positive but NZ should not agree with the claim of Rutte, NATO's chief, that Trump's bombing of Iran was consistent with international law. It clear was not:
www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360...
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Wreaths in Ypres, Missiles in Iran: A week with the prime minister
âNew Zealand can do exceptionally well, in spite of all the volatility that's there,â the PM tells the Sunday Star-Times in an exclusive interview, as he returns from a major trip to China and Europe.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360736086/born-optimist-luxon-sees-opportunity-world-turmoil
6 months ago
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It was a pleasure to participate in a fascinating discussion with Antony Loewenstein, Jonathan Lyons, Peter Bale and Bernard Hickey on Israel, Gaza, Iran and the Trump administration:
www.youtube.com/live/cIRBCX4...
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The Hoon for Thursday 19th June 2025
YouTube video by The Hoon
https://www.youtube.com/live/cIRBCX4A3vU?feature=shared
7 months ago
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As Luxon heads to China, his governmentâs pivot toward the US is a stumbling block
theconversation.com/as-luxon-hea...
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As Luxon heads to China, his governmentâs pivot toward the US is a stumbling block
Itâs becoming harder to argue NZ shares common values and interests with the Trump administration, or that the alliance balances Chinese assertiveness in the Pacific.
https://theconversation.com/as-luxon-heads-to-china-his-governments-pivot-toward-the-us-is-a-stumbling-block-259129?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=bylineblueskybutton
7 months ago
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Peter Bale, Jamie Shea, Treasa Dunworth and I discuss the extraordinary Ukrainian drone attacks in Russia and the catastrophic and lawless situation in Gaza:
www.youtube.com/live/VQbaa4R...
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The Hoon for Thursday 5th June 2025
YouTube video by The Hoon
https://www.youtube.com/live/VQbaa4R5BJQ?feature=shared
7 months ago
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Natalia Lutsenko and I discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the geopolitics of Trump's peace plan:
youtu.be/gKE-mDAWxPI?...
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đ„Trump DESTROYS Russia with SANCTIONS! Europe ALLOWS STRIKES deep inside Russia. Putin is FURIOUS!
YouTube video by War & Politics 24
https://youtu.be/gKE-mDAWxPI?feature=shared
8 months ago
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Darren Jordon and I discuss the implications of the sudden resignation of the Executive Director of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation before this organisation had become operational:
youtu.be/T54Cow6FYxo?...
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Gaza Humanitarian Foundation rocked by resignation of its Executive Director
YouTube video by Robert Patman
https://youtu.be/T54Cow6FYxo?feature=shared
8 months ago
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Neave Barker and I discuss the demand by multiple liberal democracies that Netanyahu's govt. completely end its blockade of Gaza:
youtu.be/nea8e9VtFLI?...
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Western states demand end of humanitarian aid blockade in Gaza
YouTube video by Robert Patman
https://youtu.be/nea8e9VtFLI?feature=shared
8 months ago
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Peter Bale, Bernard Hickey and I discuss The Otago Declaration on Gaza, Trump's visit to 3 Gulf states, and Zelenskyy's visit to Istanbul. Discussion begins at 5.23 mark:
www.youtube.com/live/zce3LZW...
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The Hoon for Thursday 15th May 2025
YouTube video by The Hoon
https://www.youtube.com/live/zce3LZWEUEM?feature=shared
8 months ago
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Will international resistance to Trump's protectionism significantly grow following the Canadian and Australian elections:
youtu.be/qq1NERUnI6A?...
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Canada, Australia and Pushback against Trump's Protectionism
YouTube video by Robert Patman
https://youtu.be/qq1NERUnI6A?feature=shared
8 months ago
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The risks of miscalculation cannot be discounted in the clash between nuclear armed rivals, India and Pakistan, over Kashmir:
youtu.be/R2GSxpkbLYg?...
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Kashmir crisis and the risks of nuclear escalation
YouTube video by Robert Patman
https://youtu.be/R2GSxpkbLYg?feature=shared
8 months ago
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The idea that New Zealand can avoid the impact of Trump's policies by keeping beneath the radar is delusional:
www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/why-trump...
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How Trump's 'rocky, chaotic, shambolic' second term is already impacting NZ
One expert believes Trump's polices are already undermining NZ's national interests.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/why-trump-20s-first-100-days-in-office-are-drawing-global-concern-the-front-page/3EUPGBH3UBETJKYCXCBQPAM72Q/
8 months ago
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New Zealand cannot afford to sit on the fence when it comes to upholding the rules-based free trade order:
youtu.be/9LwSbVQ8bkI?...
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Trump's protectionism could test unity of NZ's government.
YouTube video by Robert Patman
https://youtu.be/9LwSbVQ8bkI?feature=shared
8 months ago
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Peace in our time? Why NZ should resist Trumpâs one-sided plan for Ukraine
theconversation.com/peace-in-our...
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Peace in our time? Why NZ should resist Trumpâs one-sided plan for Ukraine
Forcing Ukraine to give up stolen territory in return for peace would set a terrible precedent â and potentially put New Zealandâs future security at risk.
https://theconversation.com/peace-in-our-time-why-nz-should-resist-trumps-one-sided-plan-for-ukraine-255495?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=bylineblueskybutton
8 months ago
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Domestically, Trump's America is on the road to autocracy and externally, it is ripping up the international rules-based order. Other liberal democracies like NZ need to stop deluding themselves. Discussion with Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale begins at the 5.23 mark:
www.youtube.com/live/7i2-MGL...
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The Hoon for Thursday 17th April 2025
YouTube video by The Hoon
https://www.youtube.com/live/7i2-MGLa3KI?feature=shared
9 months ago
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Professor Phillips O'Brien absolutely nails it. Liberal democracies need to stop deluding themselves. Trump has switched sides to Russia and Ukraine faces the prospect that both America and China will soon be backing Putin's invasion of Ukraine:
youtu.be/YwAzVW3SvKk?...
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âDear Europe: Stop deluding yourself on Trumpâ | LBC
YouTube video by LBC
https://youtu.be/YwAzVW3SvKk?feature=shared
9 months ago
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Fallout from US protectionism, NZ doubles defence expenditure, and the prospects for international realignment:
youtu.be/mO8pFCHvIOg?...
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Possible outcomes of US-China trade war and doubling of NZ's military budget.
YouTube video by Robert Patman
https://youtu.be/mO8pFCHvIOg?feature=shared
9 months ago
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Trump's protectionism presents risks and new opportunities for NZ's economic and security policies:
youtu.be/dbTw4qETBG0?...
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US protectionism presents risks and opportunities for NZ
YouTube video by Robert Patman
https://youtu.be/dbTw4qETBG0?feature=shared
9 months ago
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The advent of the protectionist, far-right Trump administration has probably ended any possibility that the New Zealand government can join Pillar II of AUKUS:
www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/3606...
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Defence plans reflect a world where America no longer leads
OPINION: The advent of the Trump administration has probably ended any real prospect that New Zealand can join Pillar II of Aukus in the foreseeable future.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/360651615/defence-plans-reflect-world-where-america-no-longer-leads
9 months ago
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Prof. Kevin Clements, Dr Reuben Steff and I discuss with Lloyd Burr the possible impact of Trump's on the international environment:
www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/3...
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Trump has changed the world. Hereâs what might happen next
Has this week irreversibly changed the world order? Will it result in a global economy thatâs not centered around the US?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/360649829/new-zealand-may-be-beginning-post-american-world-order
9 months ago
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In a discussion this morning with Sean Plunket, I identify three possible international outcomes following the mass application of tariffs by the Trump administration last week:
x.com/theplatform_...
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https://x.com/theplatform_nz/status/1909027397477011495
9 months ago
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In a discussion with Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale, I argued it was wrong for states like NZ to presume the old America will return after Trump. Discussion begins at 5.20 mark. The Hoon for Thursday 27th March 2025
youtube.com/live/xGh8Vq5...
via @YouTube
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The Hoon for Thursday 27th March 2025
YouTube video by The Hoon
https://youtube.com/live/xGh8Vq5fjQE?si=W0pmPpgAVAuVNgT-
9 months ago
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US war plans leak has sobering implications for other members of the Five Eyes intelligence sharing partnership:
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
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US war plans leak shows Five Eyes allies must âlook out for ourselvesâ, says Mark Carney
Signal blunder likely to put strain on Five Eyes as it weighs how Trump administration handles classified information
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/25/trump-signal-leak-reaction-canada-five-eyes?CMP=share_btn_url
10 months ago
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Will New Zealand join Europe's 'coalition of the willing' in attempting to ensure any Ukraine peace deal respects Ukraine's state sovereignty?
youtu.be/HF-4hChPRMQ?...
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NZ, Europe's 'coalition of the willing' and Trump's pro-Putin Ukraine stance
YouTube video by Robert Patman
https://youtu.be/HF-4hChPRMQ?feature=shared
10 months ago
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Deference or defiance? It is probably necessary for liberal democracies like New Zealand to respond to Trump's 'America First' administration in a way that combines both elements:
youtu.be/4M-pU4x3ap4?...
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NZ must be robust in defending its interests in relations with Trump administration
YouTube video by Robert Patman
https://youtu.be/4M-pU4x3ap4?feature=shared
10 months ago
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Russian invasion of Ukraine: Will the call between Trump, Putin have concrete results?
www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/early...
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Will the call between Trump, Putin have concrete results?
The Kremlin appears to have emerged victorious from a call with US President Donald Trump.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/early-edition-with-ryan-bridge/audio/robert-patman-otago-university-international-relations-professor-on-the-call-between-donald-trump-vladimir-putin/
10 months ago
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Ukraine conflict looms large in the meeting between US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and New Zealand Foreign Minister, Winston Peters:
www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...
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Ukraine critical for New Zealand in Rubio meeting - Patman
The US forcing Ukraine into a peace deal that favours Putin would set a disastrous precedent "unacceptable" to New Zealand, an international relations expert says.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/545182/ukraine-critical-for-new-zealand-in-rubio-meeting-patman
10 months ago
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New Zealand's response to Gaza catastrophe torn between desire for two-state solution to Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the commitment toward closer alignment with the US:
thespinoff.co.nz/politics/17-...
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New Zealand and Gaza: Confronting and not confronting the unspeakable
New Zealand has been firm in its stance against Israelâs onslaught on Gaza, yet has been silent on the United Statesâ enabling of it.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/17-03-2025/new-zealand-and-gaza-confronting-and-not-confronting-the-unspeakable
10 months ago
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Bernard Hickey, Peter Bale and I discuss, amongst other things, how Trump has almost wrecked the transatlantic relationship. The Hoon around the week to March 14
thekaka.substack.com/p/the-hoon-a...
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The Hoon around the week to March 14
Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale chat with regular guest Robert Patman about geopolitics, plus special guest Health Coalition Aotearoa Co-Chair Lisa Te Morenga about school lunches & bowel cancer screening
https://thekaka.substack.com/p/the-hoon-around-the-week-to-march-aff?r=63szf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
10 months ago
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