BRENT calendar spreads have contracted sharply, a sign traders anticipate more oil will be available in the second half of the year owing to a tariff-driven slowdown in the global economy and the surprise decision by OPEC⁺ to accelerate scheduled output increases:

EUROPE’s gas storage sites ended the main winter heating season less than 34% full on March 31. Colder temperatures and lower wind generation boosted gas consumption resulting in the largest inventory depletion for four years:

OIL FUTURES attract fund buying despite trade war jitters: jkempenergy.com/2025/03/31/o...

GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION was rising at an accelerating rate at the start of the year, a sign of a strengthening cyclical recovery. Global production was up 2.7% in January 2025 compared with the same month in 2024, the fastest increase for more than two years since October 2022:

EUROPE’s gas futures calendar spread from summer 2025 to winter 2025/26 has softened near to its lowest in five months as fears about a scramble to refill storage this summer recede:

CHINA’s LNG imports slowed to 10.6 million tonnes in the first two months of 2025, down from 13.2 million in the same period of 2024, and the slowest for the time of year since 2018:

CHINA’s long-distance passenger transport has increasingly moved onto the high-speed rail network and aviation and away from the roads:

CHINA’s coal production increased to a seasonal record 765 million tonnes in the first two months of 2025 up from 705 million in the same period in 2024 and 734 million in 2023:

U.S. VEHICLE miles travelled increased to 251 billion in January 2025, the highest for the time of year since before the onset of the pandemic in 2020. But traffic volumes have increased at an annual rate of less than 0.2% over the last six years, cotributing to the slowdown in fuel consumption:

CHINA set to miss energy efficiency target: jkempenergy.com/2025/03/13/c...

INVESTMENT MANAGERS sold the equivalent of another 48 terawatt-hours of futures and options on European gas over the seven days ending on March 7. Sales over the latest four weeks have totalled 166 TWh.

INDIA’s petroleum consumption has lost momentum since the fourth quarter of 2024. The country has replaced China as the fastest source of global consumption growth so the loss of momentum has contributed to downward pressure on prices.

EUROPE’s gas storage facilities were 38% full on March 3, with just under one month of winter depletion likely ahead. Storage was below 62% full on the same date in 2024 and the ten-year seasonal average of 42%

U.S. HEATING DEMAND so far this winter has been the highest for six years since 2018/19. The number of population-weighted heating degree days has been 6% higher than last winter and 3% above the prior ten-year seasonal average, accelerating the depletion of gas inventories:

INDIA's coal-fired generation hit a record high in 2024 - illustrating the difficulty of phasing down fossil fuels in developing economies with fast-growing electricity demand: jkempenergy.com/2025/02/26/i...

U.S. CRUDE INVENTORIES at the NYMEX delivery point in Cushing showed a sustained and unusual rise in the first three weeks of February. Stocks increased by 3.6 million barrels, the largest seasonal rise since 2019, and compared with a prior ten-year average of 0.3 million:

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION has entered a strongly positive phase ensuring the polar front jet stream takes a more northerly track and bringing lots of warm, wet and windy weather to Northwest Europe:

EUROPE’s gas futures calendar spread between the summer of 2025 and the winter of 2025/26 has collapsed as traders anticipate warmer weather and reduced inventory depletion in March as well as the relaxation of summer refill targets:

U.S. MANUFACTURERS reported production was essentially unchanged in the three months from November to January compared with the same period a year earlier. There has been no net growth in manufacturing production for eleven years since early 2014:

IF YOU would like to receive a free daily digest of best in energy news + my own newsletter, you can add your email to the circulation list via my website: jkempenergy.com/mailing-list/

HEDGE FUNDS build biggest bullish position in U.S. gas since 2017: jkempenergy.com/2025/02/24/h...

EUROPE’s gas storage sites have depleted at the fastest rate since the winter of 2020/21 and before that 2016/17. Storage sites were less than 43% full on February 18 compared with 65% full on the same date a year ago and a seasonal average of almost 47% in the last decade:

INVESTMENT FUNDS sold the equivalent of 34 terawatt-hours of futures and options based on European gas prices over the seven days ending on February 14, the largest weekly sale for 15 months. But it came after fund managers boosted their net long position to a near-record 292 TWh the week before

IF YOU would like to receive a free daily digest of best in energy news + my own research notes, you can add your email to the circulation list here: jkempenergy.com/mailing-list/

HEDGE FUNDS turn away from U.S. crude after China imposes tariffs: jkempenergy.com/2025/02/17/h...

ENERGY TRANSITIONS can happen rapidly at industry and sector level even if they occur more slowly or not at all at whole-economy and global levels.

INVESTMENT FUNDS had amassed a record net long position in futures and options on European gas equivalent to 292 terawatt-hours (TWh) by February 7, up from essentially zero a year ago, anticipating the region will have to pay much higher prices to refill storage in the summer of 2025.

U.S. SERVICES prices are rising faster which likely forecloses the possibility of any more interest rate cuts. Prices excluding housing rent increased at an annualised rate of 4.2% in the three months to January - more than twice as fast as the central bank's whole-economy target of a little over 2%

NORTH CHINA has so far experienced the mildest winter for more than 14 years since at least 2010, cutting gas consumption and allowing the country’s traders to resell LNG cargoes into Europe. Beijing sits at the heart of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei mega-region which is home to 109 million people:

NORTHWEST EUROPE’s gas futures prices have climbed to a large premium over those for deliveries to Northeast Asia as the region bids to draw cargoes to shore up rapidly depleting inventories.

NORTHWEST EUROPE’s winter has been slightly colder than the recent average, especially in the furthest north and west parts of the main densely populated region. Frankfurt’s accumulated heating demand so far this winter has been 3% higher than the average for the previous ten years:

EUROPE’s gas storage continues to empty at an unusually rapid rate with facilities less than 51% full on Feb 5 compared with more than 68% full on same date in 2024 and 70% in 2023. The rapid draw down has pushed nearby futures contracts sharply higher with the front-month trading over €55/MWh

Thanks to Damien Fleurance of Eklipx Research for inviting me on to his podcast to discuss "How will Trump's weaponisation of trade impact energy markets?" www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-Yc...

EUROPE’s front-month gas futures prices have climbed to the highest for two years as traders probe to discover the European Union’s pain threshold at which reducing prices takes priority over tightening sanctions on Russia.

Restrained U.S. oil and gas output creates conditions for next price cycle: jkempenergy.com/2025/02/04/r...

EUROPE’s benchmark summer-winter gas calendar spread retreated to a backwardation of less than €5/MWh on Feb 4 from a record of more than €6 on Jan 30, amid rumours regulators are discussing watering down storage targets to avert a frenzy of buying driving prices higher during the refill season

U.S. ELECTRICITY generation in the Lower 48 states climbed to a seasonal record of 378 billion kilowatt-hours in January 2025 up from 368 billion kWh in the same month in 2024 and 337 billion kWh in 2023, based on preliminary data from transmission operators:

U.S. GAS INVENTORIES have fallen below the prior ten-year average for the first time in two years. The huge surplus inherited from the very mild winter in 2023/24 has been eliminated following a prolonged period of low prices which reduced gas production and encouraged maximum gas-fired generation

[MUST READ] Nuclear revival puts uranium back in the critical spotlight - superb commentary by my former colleague @AndyHomeMetals www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

EUROPE's gas prices surge to meet summer refill targets: jkempenergy.com/2025/01/30/e...

U.S. GASOLINE inventories have reverted to the long-term seasonal average eliminating the large deficit that emerged in Q4 2024. Stocks were in line with the ten-year average on Jan 24 having been as much as 9 million barrels (-4% or -1.21 standard deviations) below average 11 weeks earlier on Nov 8

EUROPE’s summer-winter gas calendar spread has marched deeper into backwardation as traders anticipate the region will have to pay much higher prices to refill storage in the summer of 2025 than it did in the summers of 2024 and 2023.

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) has moved into a positive phase as pressure differentials between the sub-Arctic and mid-latitudes become higher than average, causing the polar front jet stream to accelerate and take a more northerly course:

Tenth Annual Oil Price Survey, 2025-2029 Full results and discussion are available on my website: jkempenergy.com/oil-price-su...

U.S. OIL SANCTIONS squeeze tightening market further: jkempenergy.com/2025/01/17/u...

Faster energy efficiency improvements are critical to curb emissions: jkempenergy.com/2025/01/16/f...

U.S. GAS INVENTORIES have reverted to their normal range with the huge surplus inherited from the end of winter 2023/24 eliminated. The heating season is nearing its midpoint on January 18 with more very low temperatures forecast next week.

INDIA’s crude oil imports increased to 220 million tonnes in the first eleven months of 2011 up from 214 million tonnes in the same period in 2023:

BRENT’s six-month calendar spread has flared into a steep backwardation as a new round of U.S. sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers disrupt supplies. The spread traded in a backwardation of more than $5 per barrel on January 13 from $2 on December 31. The spread is close to a 15-month high

CHINA’s crude oil imports declined by 2% to 553 million tonnes in 2024 from 564 million tonnes in 2023, according to preliminary customs data, as the growing number of electric vehicles trimmed consumption of gasoline and diesel: