Here’s the March 2026 update I just sent to my GitHub Sponsors. I continued to share results from these projects, here and on other social media platforms mike-honey.github.io/sponsors/Git... 🧵

Recent analysis by several Variant Hunters has confirmed that BA.3.2.* is preferentially infecting children. For example, here’s a comparison of recent samples from New York. For children, BA.3.2.* is 11% of samples, vs just 1.4% of adults, so around 8X more common. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global 🧵

The "excess deaths" perspective for the UK seems fairly similar, although the first wave had a more severe impact. I imagine there were some missed tests then, and also some deaths due to an overwhelmed healthcare system. Data from HMD, via my dataviz project: github.com/Mike-Honey/c...

In Australia, measles cases have continued to grow most strongly in New South Wales. They look certain to blow past last year’s tally for the state. Note the usual pattern is a spurt of 5-20 cases with lulls in between, whereas 2026 looks like one continuous outbreak. 🧵

I can't imagine any reason why this pattern of BA.3.2 preferentially infecting children would be different in Australia; but there are no details on age in our genomic sequencing data. I assume the state health departments could link up their data and answer that. 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early March. NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" and BA.3.2.* "Cicada" are wrestling for dominance, with both finishing around 36%. XFG.* "Stratus" fell sharply to 27%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Northern Ireland, to late February. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" has been dominant at 67%. XFG.* "Stratus" continued falling to finish at 39% No samples have been shared from the other home countries since February 9. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #UK #BA_3_2 #Cicada

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to early March. XFG.* "Stratus" remained dominant, steady at 53% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was also steady at 36%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Canada #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early March. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant remained dominant, steady at 73%. NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" fell to 14%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to early March. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" is in a tight battle with XFG.* "Stratus", with both finishing at 36%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" fell to 6%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #NZ #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to early March. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" grew as high as 42%, before finishing at 29%. NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" finished at 39%, while XFG.* "Stratus" rebounded to 24%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early March. XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, roughly flat at 56% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was also flat at 27%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" grew marginally to 8%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global 🧵

The Australian data also seems to show a jump in GBS (Guillain-Barré syndrome) incidence among the 75+ cohort, since COVID-19 became widespread here. From AIHW, via my dataviz project: github.com/Mike-Honey/A...

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to late February. XFG.* "Stratus" remained dominant, rebounding to 49%. NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" was roughly flat at 27%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" was roughly flat at 18%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR 🧵

No new variant data was shared from the United Kingdom last week.

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to late February. XFG.* "Stratus" remained dominant, steady at 52% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell slightly to 37%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Canada #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to late February. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant remained dominant, steady at 72%. NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" grew to 17%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to the end of February. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was dominant, growing to 47%, while XFG.* "Stratus" also rebounded to 33%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" finished at 13%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #NZ #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to late February. NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" rebounded to 42%, while XFG.* "Stratus" fell sharply to 16%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" grew strongly to 26%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late February. XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, but fell to 55% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" grew to 28%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" was roughly flat at 7%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global 🧵

Australian COVID-19 cases update: Reported Cases have started rising again across most of Australia, signalling a fresh wave. So far, the growth rate seems relatively slow, and the levels are still around half those reported from recent waves. #COVID19 #Australia 🧵

The "excess deaths" story actually got better (from the NZ perspective) after 2023, as you seemed to dodge the worst of the ongoing waves over the last few years. Meanwhile, Australia and Taiwan have, regrettably, frittered away much of their early advantage. 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to mid-February. XFG.* "Stratus" remained just dominant at 39%. NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" grew strongly to 35%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" eased back to 18%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to mid-February. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" continued to dominate at 72%. XFG.* "Stratus" continued falling to finish at 25% Recent samples are only from Northern Ireland. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #UK #BA_3_2 #Cicada 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to mid-February. XFG.* "Stratus" remained dominant, but fell sharply to finish at 50% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" grew strongly to 43%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Canada #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-February. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant remained dominant, but fell to 71%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" grew slightly to 14%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to late February. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" remained dominant at 39%, while XFG.* "Stratus" rebounded to 31%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" finished at 13%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #NZ #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to mid-February. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" rebounded to 36%, vying with XFG.* "Stratus" at 32%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" finished at 12%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia 🧵

Here’s the February 2026 update I just sent to my GitHub Sponsors. I continued to share results from these projects, here and on other social media platforms mike-honey.github.io/sponsors/Git... 🧵

Things seem to be heading in the right direction here in Australia (so far) - health-adjusted life expectancy at birth is still rising. The comparison to the UK is quite stark - we are up to ~73 while they are down to ~60 - a gap of over 10 years.

Measles cases in NSW are running at an even faster rate than 2025. I don't think there's any real seasonality for measles - just the random chance of when infected people arrive, and where they go. Analysis from my dataviz project: github.com/Mike-Honey/c... 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early February. XFG.* "Stratus" remained just dominant, but fell to 35%. NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" finished roughly flat at 27%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" grew to 24%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to early February. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" continued its sharp grew suddenly and took over dominance at 44%. XFG.* "Stratus" continued falling to finish at 32% #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #UK #BA_3_2 #Cicada 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to early February. XFG.* "Stratus" rebounded further to finish at 64% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell to 28%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Canada #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early February. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, roughly flat at 75% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was also flat at 13%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to mid-February. XFG.* "Stratus" fell sharply to 19%, while NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" finished at 34%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" grew to 18%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #NZ #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to early February. XFG.* "Stratus" is just dominant at 43%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" fell to 9%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia 🧵

Post a pic you took, no context, to bring some zen to the feed.

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early February. XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, and grew slightly to 61% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was roughly flat at 23%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" was roughly flat at 6%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global 🧵

New public exposure sites for measles in Melbourne www.health.vic.gov.au/health-alert... Some new public exposure sites for measles were added yesterday. 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early February. XFG.* "Stratus" remained just dominant, finishing at 42%. NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" finished roughly flat at 31%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" fell to 15%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to early February. XFG.* "Stratus" rebounded a little to 54% frequency. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" fell slightly to 41%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Canada #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early February. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, roughly flat at 73% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell slightly to 13%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to early February. XFG.* "Stratus" remained just dominant, but fell to 37%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #NZ #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to late January. XFG.* "Stratus" grew sharply to 55%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" fell to 9%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early February. XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, but fell to 57% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was roughly flat at 25%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" was roughly flat at 6%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global 🧵

Australian hospital separations with a diagnosis of Kaposi sarcoma have been generally falling in recent years, with a one-off spike in 2022. The decline is even more stark considering population growth (which I crudely estimate here at +1.5% pa). 🧵

I started a new dataviz project recently, integrating the Principal Diagnosis for Hospital Separations data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW). My dataviz collects their yearly "datacubes" (Excel spreadsheets), currently covering the period from mid-2010 to mid-2024. 🧵

A recent scientific paper compared excess death rates among countries, using the pre-pandemic period 2015-2019 as a baseline. A few years ago I integrated the same dataset they used (STMF from HMD) and built my own excess death analysis. I was reassured to see quite similar results. 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to late January. XFG.* "Stratus" remained just dominant, finishing at 41%. NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" continued growing, to 30%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" grew to 23%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR 🧵