OTOH, some COVID directives saved tens of thousands of lives during 2020-21: - Australia: 60 excess deaths +0.0% - UK: 135,645 excess deaths +11.1%

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to late August. The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant remained dominant, growing to 59%. XFG.* "Stratus" fell slightly to 35%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to late August. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued to dominate, but may have peaked at around 80% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell to 9%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR #LP_8_1 #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to late August. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant remained dominant, growing strongly to 80%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell back to 11%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #UK #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to late August. XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, but fell back to 62%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" grew strongly to 30%. #COVID19 #Canada #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to late August. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, finishing at 77% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was flat, finishing at 12%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to early September. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" has continued to dominate, finishing at 57%. It looks under serious threat from JN.1.* +DeFLuQE, which finished at 36%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #NZ #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #DeFLuQE 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to late August. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" has continued to dominate, but fell back to finish at 47%. It looks under threat from the rebound in JN.1.* +DeFLuQE, which grew to 32%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #DeFLuQE 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late August. XFG.* "Stratus" fell to 61%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" grew slightly to 26%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update: The risk estimate increased slightly to 0.3% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-389. That implies a 7% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia 🧵

BA.3.2.* rebounded to 10% in the wastewater, so a further +440 to my estimated BA.3.2.* infections in Perth. That takes my estimated total past 2,100. Meanwhile, a possible BA.3.2 / NB.1.8.1 recombinant was shared in the clinical sample data from WA ... very worrying if true ...

Show me the time during 2025 when it was prudent to drop primary infection controls in Queensland's nursery, maternity, cancer care, and ICU units, and thereby risk exposing their patients to any of these common respiratory diseases.

Quite a spike in Measles in Queensland for the year-to-date. Still relatively low compared to the other states per-capita, especially Western Australia. Looks like a few chains of local transmission in WA, with another one probably underway rn.

Here's an animated map showing the spread of the XGA variant. The first samples were reported in late June from Pune, India and then Shymkent, Kazakhstan. It eventually gained a foothold on the Mediterranean coast of Spain and France, but has since been reported across those two countries. 🧵

With the NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants carving up dominance around the globe, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave. The leading contenders at this point are PY.1.1.1 and XFV. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #PY_1_1_1 #XFV #XFZ 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to late August. The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant remained dominant, but fell to 52%. XFG.* "Stratus" grew steadily to 37%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to late August. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued to dominate, but may have peaked at around 80% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was flat at 13%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR #LP_8_1 #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to late August. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant remained dominant, but fell slightly to 71%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" rebounded to 22%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #UK #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to late August. XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, but fell back slightly to 70%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell slightly to 19%. #COVID19 #Canada #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to late August. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant peaked at 78% and then fell back slightly to 76% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" grew slightly, finishing at 13%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to the end of August. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" has continued to dominate, but fell back to finish at 49%. It looks under serious threat from JN.1.* +DeFLuQE, which rebounded to 34%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #NZ #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #DeFLuQE 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to late August. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" has continued to dominate, but fell back to finish at 56%. It looks under threat from the rebound in JN.1.* +DeFLuQE, growing strongly to 29%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #DeFLuQE 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late August. Growth of XFG.* "Stratus" has stalled at 61%. The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" grew slightly to 27%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update: The risk estimate rebounded up to 0.2% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-425. That implies a 7% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30. #COVID19 #Australia 🧵

BA.3.2.* looks a smidge lower in the latest week's wastewater genomic sequencing from Perth WA, perhaps at 4%, and the infection levels from wastewater also fell. I estimate +200 BA.3.2.* infections.

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to mid-August. The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant remained dominant, finishing flat at 61%. XFG.* "Stratus" fell slightly to finish at 30%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to mid-August. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued to dominate, but may have peaked at around 76% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" lifted slightly to 13%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR #LP_8_1 #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to mid-August. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant remained dominant, but may have peaked at around 72%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was flat at 14%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #UK #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to mid-August. XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, but appears to have peaked at around 72%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" rebounded somewhat to 21%. #COVID19 #Canada #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-August. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, growing to 74% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell slightly, finishing at 12%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to late August. The frequency of the dominant NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" rebounded to finish up to 65% frequency. XFG.* "Stratus" is struggling at only 11%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #NZ #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to mid-August. The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant has continued to dominate, but it fell back to finish at 62%. XFG.* "Stratus" was fairly flat, finishing at 12%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid-August. Growth of XFG.* "Stratus" appeared to stall at 61%. The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell to 25%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Influenza in Queensland: Daily, monthly and annual trends

Influenza in Western Australia: Daily, monthly and annual trends:

Australian Influenza cases update: Reported Influenza cases for Australia seemed to peak in late July, at a slightly lower level than the 2024 wave. However they are still at a very elevated level, near the peak. #Influenza #Australia 🧵

Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update: The risk estimate rebounded up to 0.4% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-227. That implies a 12% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30. #COVID19 #Australia 🧵

Here’s the August 2025 update I just sent to my GitHub Sponsors. I continued to share results from these projects, here and on other social media platforms mike-honey.github.io/sponsors/Git... 🧵

BA.3.2.* looks lower in the latest week's wastewater genomic sequencing from Perth WA, looks like around 5% (down from 15%). Could be good news, but the recent trends look a bit ragged in that data, and the sample sizes are low right now. I estimate +400 BA.3.2.* infections.

Using Figure 17 from the WA Health analysis, we can estimate the number of infections of BA.3.2. I estimate ~1,200 BA.3.2.* infections in Perth for the latest week. #Take2 #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #BA_3_2 #Australia #WA #Perth 🧵

With the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants carving up dominance around the globe, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave. The leading contenders at this point are PY.1.1.1 and XFV. #COVID19 #PY_1_1_1 #XFV #XFZ 🧵

A great thread by Ralf for more context on BA.3.2. For an added bonus, we non-German speakers get to roll around a few long words on our tongues, like Gesamtauswirkungen and Mutationsschalter ...

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to early August. The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant remained dominant, finishing up at 62%. XFG.* "Stratus" resumed growing, finishing at 34%. #COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early August. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued to dominate, growing strongly to 79% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell back to 12%. #COVID19 #EUR #LP_8_1 #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to early August. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant remained dominant, growing strongly to 75%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell to 13%. #COVID19 #UK #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early August. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, growing strongly to 73% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell slightly, finishing at 13%. #COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to mid-August. Growth of the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant has peaked; it fell further to finish at 52% frequency. XFG.* "Stratus" is the likely next challenger, but only grew to 14%. #COVID19 #NZ #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to early August. The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant has continued to dominate, but it fell back to finish at 62%. XFG.* "Stratus" was fairly flat, finishing at 12%. #COVID19 #Australia #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early August. Growth of XFG.* "Stratus" appeared to slow, finishing at 58%. The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was fairly flat, at 30%. #COVID19 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update: The risk estimate fell slightly to 0.3% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-309. That implies a 9% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30. #COVID19 #Australia 🧵