It looks like there's a fairly easy "two-fer" there - their data clearly shows a dramatic change in momentum, step up and continued acceleration from 2020 onwards. Remind me again which novel disease with known cognitive impacts arrived in 2020?

If do you get a shot at being the Health minister in years to come, it looks like there's a fairly easy "two-fer" there - their data clearly shows a dramatic change in momentum, step up and continued acceleration from 2020 onwards. A novel disease with known cognitive impacts arrived in 2020.

BA.3.2 emerged in Nov 2024 after ~3 years of intrahost evolution with >50 new spike AA muts, but since then, it's changed very little. Could the mutagenic drug molnupiravir (MOV) galvanize BA.3.2 into pursuing new evolutionary paths? A new 89-mut BA.3.2 sequence hints that it could. 1/11

A recent scientific paper compared long-term mortality by vaccination status. I noticed that Table 2 drew a lot of attention, but was actually included in the paper as a static image. So I built a quick dataviz project to explore. 🧵

The unprecedented second wave of influenza in NSW continues to grow, driven by A/H3N2 subclade K - "Kangaroo variant". Even if the peak is imminent (no sign of that), it looks set to continue well into January. No sign of any effective public health response.

The unprecedented second wave of influenza in SA continues to grow. Even if the peak is imminent (no sign of that), It looks set to continue well into January. ED capacity smashed. No sign of any effective public health response.

This piece and the quotes from QLD Health really mischaracterise the current situation. WRT NNDSS case data, there is clearly an unprecedented second wave underway, with cases rising again (after a trough in October) to roughly half the winter peak. 1/

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to the end of November. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" showed a slightly slowing growth advantage of 7% per day (49% per week) over XFG.* "Stratus", which predicts a crossover in late December. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR #BA_3_2 #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to the end of November. For the UK, BA.3.2.* "Cicada" showed a slowing growth advantage of 3.2% per day (22% per week) over XFG.* "Stratus", which predicts a crossover in late January. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #UK #BA_3_2 #Cicada 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to the end of November. XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, up slightly to 73%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" also rose, to 23%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Canada #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to the end of November. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, but fell to 81% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was up slightly to 9%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to early December. In a chaotic scene, NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" is being challenged by JN.1.* +DeFLuQE (led by PE.1.4) and XFG.* "Stratus". #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #NZ #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #DeFLuQE #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for South Australia, to late November. NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" is dominant but generally falling, finishing at 56%. JN.1.* +DeFLuQE (led by PE.1.4) is also very significant at 37%. No further samples of BA.3.2.* were reported. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late November. Globally from October, BA.3.2.* "Cicada" showed a growth advantage of 4.7% per day (33% per week) over XFG.* "Stratus". This has been skewed down by a massive dump from Canada. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global #BA_3_2 #Cicada 🧵

Australian Influenza update: The unusual second wave of influenza is continuing in most states of Australia, driven by the clade K (H3N2 clade 2a.3a.1, subclade K) – "Kangaroo variant". #Influenza #Australia 🧵

Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update: The risk estimate increased a touch to 0.1% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-812. That implies a 4% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia 🧵

A recent scientific paper included an antigenic map, comparing the immune status of individuals vaccinated with a range of vaccines ("… vaccinated sera"), against a collection of significant variants ("Virus …"). The map was very informative, so I built a quick dataviz project to explore. 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to late November. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" is showing a very strong growth advantage of 7.9% per day (55% per week) over XFG.* "Stratus", which predicts a crossover in late December. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR #BA_3_2 #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to late November. For the UK, BA.3.2.* "Cicada" is showing a strong growth advantage of 5% per day (35% per week) over XFG.* "Stratus", which predicts an imminent crossover. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #UK #BA_3_2 #Cicada 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to late November. XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, but fell to 67%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" rose slightly to 18%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Canada #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #FLiRT 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to late November. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, up again to 84% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was down slightly to 8%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to late November. In a chaotic scene, NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" is being challenged by JN.1.* +DeFLuQE (led by PE.1.4) and XFG.* "Stratus". #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #NZ #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #DeFLuQE #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to late November. For Australia, BA.3.2.* "Cicada" is showing a steady growth advantage of 2.5% per day (18% per week) over NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus", which predicts an imminent crossover (the data routinely lags). #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late November. Globally from October, BA.3.2.* "Cicada" showed a strong growth advantage of 5.5% per day (39% per week) over XFG.* "Stratus". A crossover looks likely during January at that pace. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global #BA_3_2 #Cicada 🧵

Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update: The risk estimate was flat at 0.1% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-1,011. That implies a 3% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia 🧵

Adding Prof Ian M. Mackay's analysis on the current influenza situation in Australia. bsky.app/profile/mack...

Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update: The risk estimate rose slightly, to 0.1% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-1,083. That implies a 3% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia 🧵

A recent scientific paper explored the impact of mass SARS-CoV-2 infections on Lymphocytes (crucial to the body’s immune system). I noticed the authors had shared the data behind their charts in the Appendix Supplementary materials, so I built a quick dataviz project to explore. 🧵

Australian Influenza update: It became clear during November that a unusual second wave of influenza is underway in Australia, driven by the new "clade K" (H3N2 clade 2a.3a.1, subclade K). Tasmania, New South Wales and South Australia are currently the hardest-hit. #Influenza #Australia 🧵

Thanks Denis! More details, confirming my earlier speculations about the new "clade K" (H3N2 clade 2a.3a.1, subclade K) is driving the "unusual" second wave of influenza in Australia.

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to mid-November. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" is showing continued signs of growth. Recent samples have been reported from Germany and Ireland. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR #BA_3_2 #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to mid-November. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant remained dominant, steady at 80%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell to 13%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #UK #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to mid-November. XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, roughly steady at 76%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell slightly to 17%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Canada #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #FLiRT 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-November. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, down slightly to 80% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was up slightly to 9%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for South Australia, to late November. NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" is dominant, finishing at 65%. JN.1.* +DeFLuQE (led by PE.1.4) is also significant at 26%. The first sample of BA.3.2.* was reported. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2 🧵

Here's an animated map showing the spread of the BA.3.2.* variant, nicknamed "Cicada". The other main hotspots have been South Africa, Western Australia (since July) and Germany (from mid-October). Locations are approximate - typically country and state/province. 🧵

Rather than a "long tail", it looks more like a second wave of influenza in NSW to me - case rates have been increasing throughout November, back up to about half the July peak. 🧵

BA.3.2.* appearing for the first time in the QLD wastewater variant charts. 2 sewage plants: Longholme and Merrimac. Merrimac looks around 15%. 🧵

Some concerning signals of a fresh wave of COVID in Germany, well after the earlier XFG.* peak. Could be seasonal factors, but that momentum shift looks too sharp IMO. The rise of BA.3.2.* is a possibility. Note the sequencing data lags by several weeks. threadreaderapp.com/thread/19947... 🧵

Here’s the November 2025 update I just sent to my GitHub Sponsors. I continued to share results from these projects, here and on other social media platforms mike-honey.github.io/sponsors/Git... 🧵

To commemorate the 6th year of the pandemic, here's an animated map showing the early spread of SARS-CoV-2 from December 2019 to January 2020, based on the genomic sequences shared in GISAID. Locations are approximate - typically country and state/province. 🧵

I’ve added an Excess Deaths Comparison page to my analysis on that topic. Here I’m comparing the UK, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand, to June 2025. My method projects "Expected Deaths" using a linear regression on the weekly deaths (4-week average) from a baseline of 2015-2019 deaths. 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early November. BA.3.* (mostly BA.3.2.2) is showing continued signs of growth. Recent samples have been reported from Ireland. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR #BA_3_2 #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to early November. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant remained dominant, rebounding to 79%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell to 18%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #UK #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to early November. XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, but fell to 74%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" rose to 20%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Canada #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #FLiRT 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early November. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, roughly flat at 83% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was down slightly to 7%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to mid-November. In a chaotic scene, NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" is being challenged by JN.1.* +DeFLuQE (led by PE.1.4) and XFG.* "Stratus". #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #NZ #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #DeFLuQE #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to early November. BA.3.* (all BA.3.2.2) rose to 13% and seems the most likely challenger to replace NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus". #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early November. BA.3.* (mostly BA.3.2.2) has continued to show signs of growth. Recent samples have been reported from South Africa, Australia and across Europe. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global #BA_3_2 #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update: The risk estimate fell again, to 0.1% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-1,625. This is a fresh “all time” low (since this analysis started in late 2022). That implies a 2% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia 🧵