Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to late October. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued to dominate, growing again to 83% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell to 12%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR #LP_8_1 #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to late October. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant remained dominant, falling slightly to 82%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" grew to 13%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #UK #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to late October. XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, and grew slightly to 83%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell to 12%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Canada #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #FLiRT 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to late October. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, falling slightly to 80% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was roughly flat at 9%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late October. XFG.* "Stratus" continued growing, up to 80%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell to 13%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest I have on XFZ.*. A very robust growth advantage of 5.9% per day (41% per week) vs XFG.*. Broad geographical distribution. Nova Scotia, Canada is the recent hotspot (OG XFZ). Is this the one to drive the next wave?

I’ve used WA Health’s COVID-19 wastewater surveillance page to estimate the number of infections of BA.3.2. I estimate ~300 BA.3.2.* infections in Perth for the latest week, and ~6,000 across the 12 weeks since BA.3.2.* was first detected. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #BA_3_2 #Australia #WA #Perth 🧵

Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update: The risk estimate has been steady around 0.1% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-948. That implies a 3% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to early October. XFG.* "Stratus" grew strongly to 47%, just taking over dominance. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell to 46%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to mid-October. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued to dominate, but fell to 77% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" grew to 14%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR #LP_8_1 #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to mid-October. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant remained dominant, growing to 85%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell to 8%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #UK #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to mid-October. XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, and grew again to 82%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell to 14%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Canada #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #FLiRT 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-October. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, roughly flat at 83% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was also roughly flat at 10%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid-October. XFG.* "Stratus" resumed growing, up to 77%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell slightly to 15%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Australian Influenza update: Reported cases have been holding at a stubbornly high plateau. This wave has run much longer than in previous years. #Influenza #Australia 🧵

I’ve used WA Health’s COVID-19 wastewater surveillance page to estimate the number of infections of BA.3.2. I estimate ~1,100 BA.3.2.* infections in Perth for the latest week, and ~5,700 over the 11 weeks since BA.3.2.* was first detected. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #BA_3_2 #Australia #WA #Perth 🧵

Yes it's quite impressive. I found it a bit surprising, but I suppose that pattern has repeated elsewhere with NB.1.8.1.* holding off challengers once it dominates. Interesting that XDV.* wasn't utterly dominant until about Feb-March 2025. But XDV.* / NB.1.8.1.* has been utterly dominant since.

Here's what I have for XFG.10.4 + S:A435S. Global: growth at 1.8% per day (13% per week) Italy: growth at 2.3% per day (16% per week), frequency up to 7%.

There was no BA.3.2.* reported for the latest week in the clinical samples or wastewater analysis for Perth, Western Australia. Fingers crossed the other variants have driven it to extinction. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #BA_3_2 #Australia #WA #Perth 🧵

Here's the latest I have on "Nimbus" sub-lineage PQ.2.8.1. Globally vs XFG.* I got 2.6% growth per day or 18% per week. Japan is the global hotspot, where NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" has been utterly dominant since mid-May. It doesn't look the rise of PQ.2.8.1 is matched by a rise in infections there.

Here's the latest I have on XFW.1.1 Globally vs XFG.* I got 1.2% growth per day or 8% per week.

Here's the latest I have on QW.1. Globally vs other XFG.* I got 3.2% growth per day or 20% per week. It looks like it was largely driven by the string of samples from Wales, which I understand was a cluster? The last was collected on 2025-09-30. Wales has shared 270+ samples after that date.

Thanks Fede! Here's latest I have on XFG.17.2.1: Globally vs other XFG.* I got 2.8% growth per day or 20% per week. But it is starting from a long way down. It looks like it might have stalled in Italy, which seems the hotspot.

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to mid-October. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued to dominate, and was roughly flat at 81% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell slightly to 10%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR #LP_8_1 #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to mid-October. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant remained dominant, growing to 81%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell to 12%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #UK #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to mid-October. XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, but fell to 75%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" grew to 17%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Canada #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #FLiRT 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-October. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, growing to 83% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell slightly to 9%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid-October. XFG.* "Stratus" fell slightly to 74%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" grew slightly to 16%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update: The risk estimate fell to 0.1% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-1264. That implies a 2% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia 🧵

Here’s the October 2025 update I just sent to my GitHub Sponsors. I continued to share results from these projects, here and on other social media platforms mike-honey.github.io/sponsors/Git... 🧵

Here are the countries reporting BA.3.2.* samples recently. The only known community transmission is in South Africa and Australia, with just sporadic samples elsewhere, presumably from travellers. #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 #SouthAfrica #Australia #BA_3_2 🧵

Well so far BA.3.2.* is mostly constrained to WA, so from my understanding actual action would need to be driven by the health minister there. I've just dropped her an email - please consider doing the same. www.wa.gov.au/government/p...

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to late September. The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant remained dominant, but fell to 50%. XFG.* "Stratus" grew strongly to 43%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early October. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued to dominate, and was roughly flat at 81% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell slightly to 10%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR #LP_8_1 #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to early October. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant remained dominant, growing again to 79%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was roughly flat at 15%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #UK #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to early October. XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, growing to 83%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was fairly flat at 14%. #COVID19 #Canada #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #FLiRT 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early October. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, but seems to have peaked. It fell to 79% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" rose slightly to 11%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to early October. JN.1.* +DeFLuQE (led by PE.1.4) grew to 47%, taking over dominance. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell to 32%. XFG.* "Stratus" grew to 32%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #NZ #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #DeFLuQE #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to early October. The flow of BA.3.2.2 samples from Western Australia has continued, at around 30% frequency. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early October. XFG.* "Stratus" was up slightly to 75%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell slightly to 15%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update: The risk estimate fell to 0.1% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-1058. That’s an all-time low since I started this analysis 3 years ago. That implies a 3% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia 🧵

With the NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants carving up dominance around the globe, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave. The leading contenders at this point are PY.1.1.1 and XFV. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #PY_1_1_1 #XFV 🧵

I’ve used WA Health’s COVID-19 wastewater surveillance page to estimate the number of infections of BA.3.2. I estimate ~400 BA.3.2.* infections in Perth for the latest week, and ~4,600 over the 9 weeks since BA.3.2.* was first detected. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #BA_3_2 #Australia #WA #Perth 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to late September. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued to dominate, but fell back to 82% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" grew to 12%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR #LP_8_1 #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to late September. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant remained dominant, but fell back to 73%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was roughly flat at 16%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #UK #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to late September. XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, growing to 78%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell back to 13%. #COVID19 #Canada #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #FLiRT 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to late September. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, flat at 81% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" rose slightly to 10%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to late September. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" has continued to dominate, but fell sharply to finish at 38%. JN.1.* +DeFLuQE grew slightly to 32%. XFG.* "Stratus" grew strongly to 27%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #NZ #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #DeFLuQE #XFG #Stratus 🧵

The flow of BA.3.2.2 samples from Western Australia has continued, at around 20-30% frequency. A second sample was reported from New South Wales #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late September. XFG.* "Stratus" was flat at 73%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell slightly to 17%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵