Really interesting debate 👇. That said, I am not entirely sure whether higher staff budgets or support would do the trick. From my research on Parliamentary Assistants (PAs; the guys helping MPs and MSPs), they are often selected and used in the context of wanting to get re-elected. /1

It's going to be a really interesting event!

This is an interesting account of how crisis communication by the Trump administration fails even by the standards of their own supporters. The issue, though, is that even if the rhetoric would tune down, bad pressure and community resistance would still be there and probably increase. /1

Well, I guess that solves the question of how likely a coalition or even agreements to stand down in specific constituencies between Tories and Reform would be. I also wonder whether the high profile defections are really all that helpful for Reform.

From my research, I am not surprised. There's usually very little reflection on the actual reach of communication 'broadcasted' on social media. It's already an exception if people look at views or likes - more sophisticated analysis is really rare. Besides, often it's their assistants, not them.

Really happy to see it finally in (pre-)print. My first solo-authored article: www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandg... The article is open access, focusing on work dynamics in parliamentarians' offices that cover political communication tasks.

Some debates are odd to me. E.g., it seems that Hegseth's order (what it exactly details and circumstances given is unclear) lead that to survivors of an attack were killed in one of those raids in the Caribbean sea. Thing is, if that was a war crime, then following order is a crime too. /1

I wonder who would replace Starmer and if it makes a difference. It's fairly clear that Labour is unlikely to win any popularity contest: the newest raid on Universities after going wild on migration is just one step of many to alienate their urban core vote. (SNP, Greens and Lib Dem say thank you!)

What I find most intriguing about the debate is that people seem to assume that by replacing Starmer something would improve (more competent etc). I would assume the most likely outcome is instability. /1

That's a pretty similar story on taxes. There are cases where you need to A (higher taxes) to get B (better social infrastructure). The problem is that the public may have a distorted view on how much is needed of them. And there is little electoral incentive for politicians to be open about it.

I think the same point is for the debate on AI in Higher Education contexts. It's not that AI can't produce an okay essay for students who want a short cut - it can - it's that it seems that most people who use it that way genuinely don't know whether the piece of text is good or not.

👇 genuinely don’t understand why people are unable to comprehend “don’t get AI to do something for you if you can’t understand whether it has produced the wrong answer”.

I also wonder whether it comes to Labour strategists minds that liberal voters have alternatives available, particularly in a fragmented system. Lib Dems, Greens & SNP are the biggest contenders of picking up votes when Labour tries to chase Reform voters. Anyway, the thread 👇 is worth a read.

While it is obviously interesting to delve into seat-by-seat projections for a GE2029, it's probably a rather futile exercise. There is a lot what could come along, including a collapse of HE which could have nasty knock on effects in urban local economies. /1

Very little chance that this is necessary but really interesting in terms of Macron's pursuit of strategic autonomy for the EU in security matters.

Adding to this, it seems unlikely to me that the EU (or member states) would deregulate (more likely the opposite), even under pressure by a Trump government. There will be structural pressure by leading member states (e.g., Germany) to resist any lobbying or political efforts by Trump and allies.

Maybe just as a reminder: Money does not win elections, and regardless of how much resources some campaigns receive their reach will remain limited (i.e. Reform UK and Farage would split a Conservative electorate into Reform and Lib Dem voters). I don't see Reform going beyond 30%. /1

I think the risk is, particularly if the winning candidate is not supported by their parliamentary party, that you will have more incentives to get guerilla warfare (leaks, anonymous commentary, systematic defiance of whips) without that the leadership can do anything about it.

On the elections and presumably big wins of AfD (far right) and BSW (far left) in East Germany. The consequences is most likely that it will be almost impossible to coalise and that East Germany (Thüringen and Sachsen) will be somewhat more marginalised (politically). I can't say that I'm surprised.