Given the roughly linear trend in global warming since 1970, what's the chance that we stay below 2 degrees warming at 2050? Pretty slim, it seems to me.

"Der Grund dafür ist die Verspätung eines vorausfahrenden Zuges" - one might ask why the prior train was delayed. So the better explanation would be that the reason is the utter incompetence of Deutsche Bahn.

It seems we may have reached a new normal here, though it is too early to tell. Almost 1 degree above the pre-2000 average.

doi.org/10.3749/2400... - just out for you to enjoy!

First Global Comparison of Glacier Mass Change: They’re All Melting, and Fast eos.org/articles/fir...

"he presented findings suggest that this [AMOC] decline may be associated with an almost complete loss of stability of the AMOC over the course of the last century, and that the AMOC could be close to a critical transition to its weak circulation mode." www.nature.com/articles/s41...

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... Troubling outlook...

Happy Lunar New Year to my friends and colleagues in East Asia! May the year be prosperous, bring happiness, and fulfill your wishes!

Still in New Zealand, but transitioning to Bonn in March. Move preparations in are going well, hope to get back to do Science again soon. See some of you at IAVCEI in Geneva and some of you at Goldschmidt in Prague, I hope.