New poll: Voters would pause deportations to lower housing, food prices • Trump's State of the Union address was largely about crime and immigration. Our poll shows voters wanted to hear less about immigration policy and more about how he's going to bring down prices

Ahead of State of the Union, Trump's approval falls to new low of 37% • The new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats leading on the generic ballot by 10 points among registered voters, and Trump approval on immigration falling to -15

Political journalism needs fewer "takes" and more analytical legwork • Why I think what you’re getting with this newsletter is different, and why it matters right now

Trump decides he'll FAFO on Supreme Court tariff ruling • The tariff ruling let President Trump blame judges and walk away from an unpopular policy. Instead, he attacked his own justices and announced new tariffs the people hate

The shutdown helps Democrats by changing what "immigration" means to voters • Trump's approval on immigration varies by nearly 20 points depending on whether respondents are asked about border security, deportations, ICE, or immigration in general

Democrats should think out of the box for how to win in 2028 • Democrats don't have to move right to win back Trump voters. Also: the DHS shutdown as electoral strategy, and The Argument's trans rights polling controversy.

Meet America’s new swing voter: The anti-system voter. (Or: Why Democrats should think through nominating AOC in 2028) • A new paper finds anti-system sentiment — not left-right ideology — decided the 2016 and 2024 elections

If you're a poll junkie, we have news for you • More polls and averages are now available at FiftyPlusOne.news

The backlash against Trump is showing up in hard data, not just polls • New data on protest activity shows organized anti-Trump actions are 4x the size they were in the president's first term. Your weekly political data roundup for February 15, 2026.

Democrats have the leverage in the shutdown over ICE • A majority of voters supports funding TSA and FEMA while conditioning additional ICE money on reforms

How "normie" voters feel about Trump now • Low-information voters have turned on Trump. Also: the SAVE America Act, and Gallup's exit from approval polling is less dramatic than you think.

The less voters knew, the more they liked Trump in 2024. Not Anymore • The least-engaged Americans have swung 25 points against him since 2024 — about twice the shift among everyone else. Trump has flattened the engagement gap.

What Democrats can actually learn from the 1992 election • Bill Clinton's victory is supposed to prove that Democrats win by moving to the center. The data disagrees

52 percent of U.S. adults say Trump has made the economy worse • Three major polls this week show Americans remain deeply pessimistic about affordability, opportunity, and their economic future. Your weekly political data roundup for February 8, 2026.

What Americans actually want done about ICE • Democratic proposals for reform earn supermajority support among U.S. voters

Yes, Democrats should run on ICE • Elliott and David Nir talk about 2026 strategy, the special election in Texas, and, voters' anxieties about the economy and democracy

More evidence that a large share of "moderates" are non-ideologues • A reader replicated my analysis of political ideology using alternative data

The Texas special election and 2026 political environment • Recapping Taylor Rehmet’s win in Texas last Saturday, immigration polling, and what's in store for 2026

Democrats hit historic high in Fox News Poll as GOP loses ground on key issues • Plus: Trump's approval among independents falls to a record low, and the issue landscape shifts ahead of 2026. Your weekly political data roundup for February 1, 2026.

Blue wave watch: Democrat flips Trump +17 Texas Senate seat in 32-point swing • A nerdy look at precinct-level data from the TX SD-9 special election

Americans voted for Trump, but never supported Trumpism • Donald Trump's policies have always been less popular than his promises

The ICE shootings are a tipping point • Donald Trump's approval on immigration has dropped 18 points since taking office, and support for abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement has swung 50 points since Sept. 2024

New Abolish ICE polling and the end of the Trump “realignment” • Your weekly political data roundup for January 25, 2026.

The consent of the governed has been withdrawn • One year into his second term, Trump has suffered the largest approval collapse of any modern president (except the one who resigned in disgrace). He is underwater on every major policy area.

Trump’s terrible polls, one year in • New polling shows the president losing voters on his signature issue. What that looks like at the local level, and what it means for 2026

A very detailed map of Trump's job approval • Explore our new interactive map of Trump's job approval, powered by 12,000 survey interviews conducted in 2025 and 2026

New poll: Trump loses ground on immigration; Dems lead 2026 House vote by 8 points • The new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats start 2026 with their biggest lead yet on the 2026 House vote, while the GOP loses ground on immigration, the economy, and public safety

Backlash to Trump has been more severe in his second term • Gallup's latest data shows Republican party identification down 6 points in Trump's second term — three times the decline in 2017

Trump has made ICE a 70-30 issue — for Democrats • By using brutal force in public, ICE has given Democrats a chance to change how voters think about immigration policy. Will they take it?

All the poll questions readers suggested we ask in 2026 • The final list from our community question-writing exercise in December

How early is too early to look at midterm polls? • Early generic ballot polls are directionally useful, but the party out of power historically gains ground between now and November

Venezuela polling update: Republicans fall in line on comparatively unpopular action • Your weekly political data roundup for January 11, 2026.

Support for abolishing ICE hits a a new high • Americans have turned sharply against Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and say it too often resorts to violence

Pardon my coup • Accurate political journalism requires a bias toward democracy

Midterms are a backlash, not a referendum • The best predictor of historical midterm election outcomes is which party is in power, not its performance

Americans do not want war with Venezuela • Military intervention in the country is even more unpopular than Trump’s tariffs and health care cuts

What voters in every state think about Trump and prices • Using MRP on our 2025 polling, Trump’s overall approval is underwater in 39 states— and his inflation numbers are negative in 49

10 new charts that show how Americans feel about prices and health care • Plus: take the 2025 reader survey to steer coverage for the next year! Your weekly political data roundup for December 21, 2025.

Voters blame Trump for their economic woes • In a televised speech, Trump tried to turn around his affordability numbers by drawing attention to policies voters disapprove of

Add your own questions to our 2026 election polls! • Strength In Numbers is planning to go big on interactive polling and modeling in 2026. Help us decide what questions to track on a monthly basis

The high cost of rolling over on immigration • What Matt Yglesias, Hakeem Jeffries, and Keir Starmer got wrong about the politics of immigration

The politics of young people is the politics of instability • Plus: gerrymandering, 2026, news diets, and more on affordability. Your weekly political data roundup for December 14, 2025

Affordability voters favor Democrats over Republicans for 2026 House midterms • Voters who say the economy or inflation are their #1 issue are D+12 in the generic ballot, and give Trump a net job approval rating of -20

How cable news fueled the culture war and broke U.S. politics • News organizations, and not just Fox News, focus on inflammatory stories, polarizing voters and tilting political agendas to the right

New Republican voters are much less MAGA. That will hurt the party in 2026. • Your weekly political data roundup for December 7, 2025

How the floor could fall out for Trump • 43% of Republicans say he isn't keeping his promises on the economy

What the special election in Tennessee's Seventh District means for the 2026 midterms • Republicans held a Trump +22 seat — but by only 9 points. A swing half as large would give Democrats the U.S. House in 2026, and put the Senate clearly in play

How can we be sure changes in polls reflect real changes in opinion? • A technical response to a comment on last Friday's chart about Democrats' generic ballot polling

What if America used ranked-choice voting for presidential primaries? • Plus: an update on non-voters; the secret sauce behind my polling models; and updating my list of political biases and how I account for them. This is the Strength In Numbers November 2025 Q&A.

Two new polls show learning about Trump's policies moves public opinion toward Democrats • Your weekly political data roundup for November 13, 2025