In 2025, I published Polycrisis 2027, warning that multiple geopolitical/economic/tech shocks could overwhelm govts & businesses. With the Iran war, we’ve updated the report. Our conclusion: the polycrisis has begun. Read more in my new States of Play essay:

The Changing World in Figures No. 1 - 74% 74% of UN member states now publicly affirm that Taiwan is part of China. As Trump and Xi meet this week, this reveals how much of the world is moving closer to China than the US, & not just on Taiwan. #statesofplay

Today - the 2nd of my twin essays on the new fracture reshaping global politics. As the West argues over sovereignty and globalism, its coherence - the foundation of post-war order - is breaking apart. And China is stepping into the vacuum. substack.com/@samolsen/no...

Trump met Putin in Alaska to “end the war.” But Putin isn’t playing today’s game. He’s playing the game of 1914 — empire, spheres of influence, and small nations treated as objects, not subjects. 🧵

In States of Play I talk to @keirgiles.bsky.social about what Putin (and by extension, Russia) really wants, including a return to Russia's imperial past. But how successful are the West's efforts to resist this, and what next for Russia and Europe? samolsen.substack.com/p/what-does-...

Episode 1 of States of Play drops tomorrow, asking what a world order actually is open.substack.com/pub/samolsen...

I have news: today I am launching States of Play, a new podcast on understanding the changing world order open.substack.com/pub/samolsen...