Whilst the Kremlin forecasts the economy to grow by 1% this year, it will be driven by the defence sector. Weakening consumer demand in #Russia is a concern for policy makers given higher manufacturing sector wages and a large number of contract soldiers should see strong consumer sentiment.

The economy of #Moldova grew 1.1% year on year, which is less than it needs if it is indeed to make a lasting swing towards Europe. It's in the EU's interest to support investment into the country and ensure the pro-European stance of its people are rewarded.

The 120MW solar plant in Aden, #Yemen, is an example of how renewables provide viable energy solutions in low security environments. More important than large solar farms are smaller minigrids which allow for disbursed energy production that is less vulnerable to exposed transmission infrastructure

Despite positive noises from Minsk, it appears reliance upon a slowing Russian economy is infecting #Belarus. This will have a compound effect as Russia places restrictions on Belarusian exports to protect its own industries. Lukashenko will not break with Putin, so continued slowing is expected.

Expansion of the cement sector in #Syria is a positive sign that demand for reconstruction is growing. The planned expansion of output by approximately 350% will ease one of the many bottle-necks the country faces as it rebuilds.

The acute food crisis in Rakhine can be alleviated by allowing free trade through the India and Bangladesh borders. Trade with #Myanmar Junta controlled areas is unlikely flow, though this would greatly reduce suffering of the civilian population.

A good article on the economic conundrum facing #Russia come the Russo-Ukraine War's end. Whilst the War will end, Putin has unpalatable choices ahead as the avoidance of economic collapse will require the type of political sacrifices he is disinclined to make.

The potential delivery of Swedish Gripen Jets and additional French Mirage jets is another step from #Ukraine in mitigating supply-side risk through diversification. Such diversification is progressing, though intelligence for targeting and defence remains heavily dependent upon the US.

The Junta in #Myanmar is reaching out to #NorthKorea for arms purchases. This is understandable, given the political isolation of both regimes, though marks further growth in NK's growing international arms exports.

Russian money and expertise can assist #Sudan, though Khartoum must take care that oil delivery infrastructure and transport infrastructure is prioritised whilst Russian sponsored opaque gold mining operations underway in the North East are either halted or at the very least brought into the light.

The Arakan Army in #Myanmar need to capture Kyaukphyu if they wish to deal directly with China. China is primarily concerned with its investments in Rakhine, with little concern as to the people or economy. By controlling the area the AA can obtain the concessions it needs to develop the state.

Western investment into the arms industry of #Ukraine is desired for both the capital and the mass-production know-how. Building in Ukraine places such firms in the global heart of arms innovation, whilst providing options for battle-field testing and refining.

The #Niger Junta appears to understand the dismantling of governance structures left it in a weakened position. The IMF can provide assistance, though this will involve reinstituting transparency and accountability mechanisms dismantled by the Junta. The rest of the #Sahel should take note.

#Russia is attempting to take more money from the system at the same time it is trying to stimulate the economy by lowering interest rates. These conflicting policies risk cancelling each other if mishandled. Spending on the War needs to be addressed if substantive change is to be achieved.

Interest from India in rare earth mining in #Myanmar puts it in direct strategic competition with China. This may strengthen the hand of the Kachin Liberation Army who control most of the mining sites, however may also bolster China's support for future offensives by the Junta in Kachin State.

A recent analysis suggests #NorthKorea is providing Russia far more than it is receiving. The report focuses upon physical exchange, but does not incorporate potential technology transfers. If NK indeed has a $8 billion trade deficit, then the type of technology received may be significant.

JNIM militants in #Mali are attacking fuel imports. As with the other #Sahel juntas, a fragile economy is further weakened by poor governance. This weakness is being exploited by JNIM who, by bringing the conflict further South, are stretching an already under-resourced Malian army.

Israeli strikes upon the port of Hodeida in #Yemen further degrades the ability of the economy to service the civilian population. The government in Aden needs to organise a land corridor to #Houthi controlled areas so the port of Aden can better facilitate economic and humanitarian activity.

Control of gold exports is important if #Sudan is to obtain the foreign currency required for imports that allow business to flourish. The problem is control of the budget by the SAF effectively makes this an enabler of weapons purchases.

Ukraine striking the 155th in Vladivostok has large symbolic value. Strategically the effect may be more significant, forcing #Russia to expend resources to enhance security across the entirety of the country. The more Russia is forced to expend resources domestically, the less it has for Ukraine.

The continued attacks by #Ukraine on Russian energy export and refining infrastructure are becoming more effective and frequent. Facilities previously thought too distant or protected are being hit. Attacking the Russian shadow fleet of tankers fits this strategy of economic degradation.

As Russia increasingly threatens countries supporting Ukraine, European funding for #Myanmar is waning. This is not a surprise, however it does mean enhanced Chinese influence, especially if Thailand or India do not step into the breach.

Egypt, UAE, Saudi & the USA jointly pushing for a ceasefire in #Sudan will only have the desired impact if UAE & Egypt tie financial and military support to compliance. One looming problem is that each of the "Quad" wants a future government that is reflective of their wishes, not the Sudanese.

Creating solid fuel in volume requires facilities that are large and vulnerable to missile strike. By moving parts of its weapons production out of the country, #Ukraine is better able to mass produce critical components whose manufacturing is difficult to hide or protect.

Stopping companies from going bankrupt in #Russia does not change the reason as to why they are going bankrupt. The Kremlin will need to channel even more funds from critical infrastructure maintenance and public services if they wish to maintain the facade of a healthy wartime economy.

The return of its diaspora gives #Syria a chance to rebuild. The EU should be doing its utmost to ensure these returnees have access to their personal capital, better enabling small business to build. Peace is built on stability, and stability requires a solid domestic economic base.

Fresh US sanctions upon the KNA in #Myanmar are welcome, but this must be matched by supporting the KNLA if material progress against scam centres is to be made. Supporting the KNA's natural rivals will do far more to reducing the number of scam centres than any amount of direct sanctions.

The economic importance of the Russo-Ukraine war to #NorthKorea is significant. The highlighting of such engagement in propaganda is preparing the North Korean public for deeper engagement.

The use of UAE funded Colombian mercenaries in #Sudan allows the RSF to operate more sophisticated weapons systems. This also brings Colombian diplomatic attention upon UAE, as well as risking broader South American support for the SAF.

The #Myanmar Junta request for Thai traders to use alternate crossings may be a tacit admission that their offensive to retake the Asian Highway leading to Myawaddy is not faring well.

With 8.4% of the energy needs of #Moldova met by newly commissioned plants, and potentially 30% when conditions allow, the risk of economic and political shocks via Russian energy sabotage is greatly reduced. Renewable energy improves energy security.

Blaming the Central Bank for the stagnating economy in #Russia is disingenuous. Blame for the stagnating economy lays squarely at the feet of the Kremlin. Perhaps there are too many windows at Sberbank for the CEO to state such.

Poor mining practices are a feature of conflict as the rule of law degrades and the financing of combat gains greater weight in decision making. This is poor policy from any party that claims legitimacy in regards to playing a role in the future governance of #Myanmar

The Ukrainian cruise missile "Flamingo", should it be produced in numbers as advertised, will have a significant impact on the economy of #Russia Whilst the missile will provide some tactical advantages, the potential strategic advantages are dramatic, especially in curbing energy exports.

Russia's engagement with #Mali is reflective of its broader policy in the #Sahel. It is a policy that promotes economic exclusion of other actors, leaving the region open for Russian investment. The problem is that Russia has not the resources to fill the gap left by those it help push out.

The Israeli attack that killed the Houthi PM in #Yemen is likely to see an escalation of Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Insurance premiums on ships traversing the area is already approximately USD150,000 per ship per transit. Expect costs to rise.

On August 29, Japan’s Defense Ministry requested 8.8 trillion yen for fiscal year 2026, starting in April, its largest ever budget request. Tokyo is striving to strengthen its defense capabilities to cope with growing military threats from China, North Korea, and Russia.

The NOC creating a new gas company to be based in Benghazi will circumvent the East-West political split in #Libya. Whilst this will allow exploration to continue, it may create long-term problems as it reduces economic pressure upon the rival administrations to find a political solution

Domestic sales of gold increases the money supply in #Sudan without any commensurate economic growth. The result is inflation and a weakening of the Sudanese Pound. Whilst gold controls will have some effect, a lack of trust in economic policies will ensure the practice continues.

Growth in the economy of #Russia was driven by government savings. These are drying up. A question the Russian public must ask is why these funds weren't used earlier to improve their lives. Communicating this question to ordinary Russians will be important if the Kremlin is to be held to account

Given the control the #Myanmar Junta has over large business in the #Myanmar, requests for detailed personal information on leading business figures appears more psychological than administrative. The upcoming elections may be a factor.

The economy of #Belarus would benefit from the lifting of sanctions, however the lifting of sanctions on Russia would be problematic. Minsk has reasonably done well out of Moscow's sanction avoidance activities, though these gains were largely lost through poor governance.

The shunning of the Gates Foundation in #BurkinaFaso will result in a reduction of anti-malaria investment in the country. Given the collapse of foreign donor and domestic government health investment, philanthropy must be embraced by the juntas of the #Sahel, not rejected. #gatesfoundation

Readjustment of logistics will alleviate much of the problem with domestic fuel supplies in #Russia. However, alignment of the financial woes of ordinary Russians with the Russo-Ukraine War will cause significant domestic political problems for the Kremlin.

The SBU investigation into an anti-corruption officer would be better received if Kyiv was strengthening anti-corruption efforts simultaneously. That it comes at a time when perceptions are anti-corruption capacity is being softened raises concern amongst the general public.

NEW: North Korea confirms over 100 dead troops from Ukraine war at Pyongyang ceremony https://www.nknews.org/2025/08/north-korea-confirms-over-100-dead-troops-from-ukraine-war-at-pyongyang-ceremony/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=mastodon

The #Myanmar Junta aim to hit Karen finances through the abrupt closure of trade through Myawaddy. The question is less one of the KNU, and more one of the Karen National Army who are loosely aligned to the Junta and whose finances have a greater dependency upon trade through Myawaddy.

Whilst large Saudi investment is important for the recovery of #Syria, peace dividends are better achieved through the recovery and growth of small business. Alleviating the liquidity crunch by injecting funds into banks would better serve this purpose.

The road to Myawaddy is a critical economic corridor for #Myanmar. Control of this vital artery impacts not just the national economy, but also the political legitimacy of any regime. The Junta will want to regain control prior to its much criticized election.

Zelensky buying more time for #Ukraine matters, as the longer time drags on the more economic activity in Europe is geared towards war and the lower Russia's funding capacity gets. Essentially, the US becomes less important and Russia less capable.