The #Myanmar Junta is rebuilding the kleptocracy that left the country economically fragile last time it went down this route. Entrenchment of the military in business makes political reforms difficult, as few of their dealings stand even basic scrutiny. www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/f...

A comparison between stocks in Russia, Poland and Kazakhstan since Feb 2022 provides yet another indicator as to the negative impact on the Russian non-war economy.

Companies in #Russia continue to suffer from the war economy imposed by the Kremlin, with the MOEX mired at depressed levels despite exceedingly high state expenditure. Adjusted for the extremely high inflation, this goes from grim to disastrous.

Mining revenues increased in #Niger, yet remain lower than pre-coup levels despite significantly higher metal prices. The Juntas of the #Sahel would be better served by pursuing good governance and better trade deals, but soldiers don't make economists.

The loss of overflight fees in #Sudan occurs in areas of high conflict. Often these fees are used to fund civil aviation, however in Sudan's case it is likely the funds would have been funnelled directly to the SAF who co-started this mess.

The need to disperse energy production in #Ukraine is immediate. Mini-grids formed with renewables is needed immediately, as is the decentralisation of heating. Hoping the War will finish before Winter is not a strategy.

The push by companies and civil society in #Libya for unification underscores the economic and social cohesion of integration. Economies need peace, and peace needs trust. The long-term well-being of ordinary Libyans is ill-served by division. libyaobserver.ly/news/libyas-...

The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is damaging global urea supplies, creating an opportunity for potash exporters in #Belarus This is the opening Minsk needs for broader sanctions relief.

The 'Karen National Peacebuilding Committee' is an effort by the Junta in #Myanmar to legitimise warlords co-financing the regime through scam centres. By doing so, the Junta hopes to provide a veneer of respectability to some rather dubious characters.

Despite limited naval capacity, #Yemen is having to shoulder more of the anti-piracy burden as international naval assets have their attention diverted. This is problematic, not least as Aden's financier, Saudi Arabia, is able to offer less support.

Growing regional deficits in #Russia is problematic given the role they play in co-financing the Kremlin's war in Ukraine. This is likely to impact recruitment bonuses, creating further strain on a system that is reportedly below replacement levels.

The conviction of Vlad Plahotniuc is an important step in strengthening the rule of law in #Moldova. The judiciary needs big, public wins if it is gain the trust of the population. It has some way to go, yet appears to be heading in the right direction.

Whilst a 100,00 reserve force has military merit, it is something the economy of Burkina Faso, or any of the #Sahel states, is unable to support. Expect the actual force to be somewhat more modest.

Continued strikes on Tuapse, coupled with repeat attacks elsewhere, suggests #Ukraine may be moving from disrupting the Russian oil industry to completely removing critical oil infrastructure. "Repair" is becoming less of an option.

#Sudan requires foreign investment in its extractive industries, not least to better capture revenues for the Government that are missed through current practices. Wars are fertile grounds for cowboy operators, who all too often are conflict enablers.

#Belarus is barring Russian conscripts from leaving for third countries in a move that is likely a result of pressure from Moscow. This change will have little impact on annual conscription, however will have greater impact on a general mobilisation.

The scam industry in #Myanmar is simply too important for Junta revenues for sustained action to be taken. The most reliable way to shut these centres down is through support for the KNLA, who appear to have a genuine distaste for this activity.

Roughly 50% of Moscow's budget comes from non-oil VAT and corporate tax, both of which are collapsing. Increases in the oil price is not filling the gap as Ukraine continues to stifle production and export capacity. #Russia is in a fiscal hole.

The two graphs below (World Bank data) help explain part of the problem in #Mali. Since the 1st coup in 2012, GDP per capita rose 67%, whereas the percentage of the population in poverty fell only 4%. Poor economic governance provided fertile ground for FLA & JNIM recruitment.

The Central Bank of #Russia reduced its key rate to 14.5%, suggesting inflation is still very high but less persistent. This may be partly the result of reductions in the Kremlin's spending; something it is unlikely to have undertaken willingly.

Secure funds for #Ukraine means much more than before as the ability to expand the manufacture and supply of drones has become strategically significant. The EU may have provided Ukraine with the ability to destroy the War's economic underpinnings.

The sentencing of Plahotnuic in #Moldova is an important step in moving away from the style of kleptocratic governance favoured by Moscow. It will make some power figures in Tiraspol nervous.

The juntas of the #Sahel continue to look to replace France with Russia, however military support is constrained by Moscow's fiscal crisis. Mali will pay for this through the type of economic concessions the juntas claim to stand against.

#Yemen needs to implement mobile banking services in order to circumvent its critical shortage of hard cash. Internet banking can be problematic in rural areas, however using credit available on mobiles can assist with transactions. www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...

#NorthKorea wants to reignite relations with China. It is unlikely NK will do anything to jeopardise its relationship with Russia, which will be challenging as China is likely to be more interested in diplomatic influence than economic.

The US sanctioning the mercenary company supplying the RSF signals an intent to limit the capacity of the worst human rights offender in #Sudan. If the US really wants to make a difference it should pressure the UAE to stop funding the RSF. sudantribune.com/article/312928

The Central Bank of #Russia continues to be allowed to deliver uncomfortable economic news, though within limits. The Kremlin knows the CB needs a minimum level of independence if the the war economy is to be kept alive for as long as possible.

The economy of #Belarus continues to show strain, with its structural ties to Russia dragging the economy. Belarus needs to move away from the Russian economy if it is to build resilience. As much as it pains Minsk, it needs Poland and the Baltics.

Whilst the Arakan Army may well take all of #Myanmar's Rakhine State in the next 20 months, it will be how China reacts to the fall of Kyaukphyu that dictates if they hold it. The AA needs a working relationship with Beijing and vice versa.

JNMI is having a recruitment bonanza as juntas of the #Sahel kill many more civilians than the Islamists. The juntas have a strong social media presence, however need to protect their citizens if they want to help their countries. Their popularity will wane if they preference likes over lives.

The Hungarian election looks to remove a key blockage of EU funding to #Ukraine, however the question of Slovakia remains. Whether Fico's anti-Ukraine position is as strident without Orban will become clearer in the coming weeks.

The #Myanmar Junta needs to subjugate people as, like all juntas, it is unpopular. Companies in countries susceptible to coups must have contingency plans for the handling of sensitive data once such an event occurs.

The return of international agencies to Khartoum is important for #Sudan, as it suggests the RSF have a materially reduced capacity to return. Whether this remains the case should South Sudan, Eritrea and Ethiopia fall into conflict is uncertain.

Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil & gas, including export infrastructure, is having a material impact on the Kremlin's budget despite high oil prices. Kinetic sanctions appear to be gaining effectiveness, as #Russia's air defence is losing effectiveness.

#Moldova continues to draw closer to Romania as economic links deepen. Whilst unification with Romania remains a distant prospect (Bucharest can't afford it), such talk reflects the rapid acceleration of Moldova's departure from Moscow's orbit.

The Houthis have the ability to increase global economic pain significantly by attacking shipping in the Bab El-Mandeb Strait between #Yemen and Djibouti. The USA's sudden pause in Iran reduces the chances of this happening.

High oil prices are providing a boon for #Libya in more ways than one. The desperately needed funds are one aspect, however renewed interest from the international community in the peaceful unification of the country is another.

The #Myanmar Junta's control of the primary trade route to Thailand will be a blow to the financial position of the Karen forces fighting against it. It is unclear if the route is safe enough for traders to use with confidence.

If what Budanov says is true, then #Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure are sufficient to influence world prices, which means they are having a material impact on the Kremlin's finances. Attacking Russian oil is shortening the War.

Despite sharply declining security conditions in Burkina Faso, Traore remains popular across much of the #Sahel. His junta benefits from high gold prices, however needs to improve agriculture if it is to have any chance to contain the insurgency.

The blockage of the Straits of Hormuz is a boon for #Belarus as farmers in the US find themselves short of fertilizer (urea being exported from Qatar). This may provide an avenue for Minsk to obtain further substantive sanctions relief from an increasingly skeptical US administration.

#NorthKorea continues to operate one of the World's most sophisticated and successful crypto theft operations. It is less asymmetric warfare and more adoption of structured criminal activity as part of Pyongyang's fiscal framework. It is economically rational, if morally defunct.

The SPLM-North's push into Blue Nile State via Ethiopia threatens vital agricultural industry and the Roseires Dam, the source of approximately 10% of #Sudan's power. SPLM-N appear aligned with RSF for reasons of convenience rather than ideology. sudantribune.com/article/312195

#NorthKorea appears to be inching out of its, primarily self-imposed, isolation. Though the recent cancellation of the Pyongyang Marathon shows the regime remains fond of backward steps. The role the Russo-Ukraine War plays in all of this is intriguing.

The war in the Gulf provides relief for #Russia, though the budget is already inadequate in relation to maintenance of critical infrastructure. It will, however, help keep the Kremlin's war machine turning.

Russia's inability to adequately support the juntas of the #Sahel is resulting in growing instability, impacting neighbouring countries. The EU needs to focus on economic development in border regions, as guns will not break the cycle of violence.

Fuel supply was an issue in junta-run #Myanmar before the war in Iran; it's critical now. This is a bigger issue for the Junta than armed groups opposing it, given the Tatmadaw's heavy reliance upon air and naval support.

The listing of defence tech firms from #Ukraine on foreign exchanges offers access to significant amounts of capital. What is more, it strengthens belief in Ukrainian corporate governance, an aspect that Russian disinformation works hard to undermine.

Pollution in the Dniester caused by Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure is causing serious issues for #Moldova. The authorities in Chisinau need to work with Tiraspol, as Transnistria is likely to be heavily affected as the plume moves downstream

The logic behind the steep increase in shipping costs to #Yemen is unclear, given Aden is not an Iranian target and should the Houthi's attack it will be shipping in the Red Sea, not Jebel Ali Port. Follow the money?