United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2 Team Ratings for Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 5 Team Ratings for Round 5 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2 Team Ratings for Round 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final Team Ratings for the Grand Final The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Briefly From the Guardian: Exclusive: Study gives 85.7% probability Badminton House version of The Lute Player is by 17th-century master. As I said about a previous rating from the same company, there's no way this probability is meaningful to three significant digits (except potentially to the…

Panadol scare R.F. Kennedy Jr managed to predict almost perfectly the day on which his research initiative would "find"  "the" "cause" of autism.  Of course, it's easier when you don't have to actually do any new research. What do we actually know about paracetamol and autism or ADHD? About a…

Estimating rare proportions There is a statistic circulating on social media claiming that the average person in the USA thinks 21% of the population is transgender.  Obviously this isn't true (both obviously it isn't 21% and obviously that isn't what the average person believes). It's similar in…

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 1 Team Ratings for Week 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 4 Team Ratings for Round 4 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1 Team Ratings for Round 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 9 Team Ratings for Week 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

AFL Predictions for the Grand Final Team Ratings for the Grand Final The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 3 Team Ratings for Round 3 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2 Team Ratings for Finals Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 8 Team Ratings for Week 8 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9 Team Ratings for Round 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

AFL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 2 Team Ratings for Round 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1 Team Ratings for Finals Week 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 7 Team Ratings for Week 7 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8 Team Ratings for Round 8 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

AFL Predictions for Finals Week 2 Team Ratings for Finals Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 1 Team Ratings for Round 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NRL Predictions for Round 27 Team Ratings for Round 27 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 6 Team Ratings for Week 6 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7 Team Ratings for Round 7 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

AFL Predictions for Finals Week 1 Team Ratings for Finals Week 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NRL Predictions for Round 26 Team Ratings for Round 26 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 5 Team Ratings for Week 5 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6 Team Ratings for Round 6 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NRL Predictions for Round 25 Team Ratings for Round 25 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 4 Team Ratings for Week 4 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5 Team Ratings for Round 5 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

AFL Predictions for Week 25 Team Ratings for Week 25 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NRL Predictions for Round 24 Team Ratings for Round 24 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 3 Team Ratings for Week 3 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4 Team Ratings for Round 4 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

AFL Predictions for Week 24 Team Ratings for Week 24 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Success rates Complicated interventions benefit from pilot studies, where you try to implement the intervention and see how feasible it is.  These are not designed as evaluations of how good the intervention is; they're typically too small for that and they may have insufficient attention paid to…

BLS accuracy From economist Justin Wolfers on BlueSky, the record of payroll employment revisions by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics First: look at 2020! Next, though, the purple and green lines are very close together compared to the scale of year-to-year change even when there isn't a…

Official statistics As you may have heard, President Trump has dismissed the head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, claiming that payroll employment figures presented by the BLS were faked to make him look bad. Politicians meddling with official statistics is a bad idea.  This isn't because…

NRL Predictions for Round 23 Team Ratings for Round 23 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 2 Team Ratings for Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3 Team Ratings for Round 3 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

AFL Predictions for Week 23 Team Ratings for Week 23 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Where are they now: asthma From 2015 in the Herald and in StatsChat Asthma could be cured within five years after scientists discovered what causes the condition and how to switch it off As I noted at the time: nope, and nope. Following up, the drugs in question, called calcilytics, continue to…

NRL Predictions for Round 22 Team Ratings for Round 22 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 1 Team Ratings for Week 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.