NFL Predictions for Week 17 Team Ratings for Week 17 This is a new competition for me. It took some time to get the data into the appropriate form and understand the game schedule. I was very surprised by the lack of any significant home ground advantage. After speaking to someone familiar with…

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 8 Team Ratings for Week 8 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 13 Team Ratings for Round 13 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8 Team Ratings for Round 8 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 7 Team Ratings for Week 7 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 12 Team Ratings for Round 12 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7 Team Ratings for Round 7 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11 Team Ratings for Round 11 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

50-year mortgages and avocado toast Sometimes society or government faces a problem where not enough money is being spent on something.  Kiwis on average aren't allocating enough money to retirement, or councils aren't investing enough money on water infrastructure. In that scenario, you want to…

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games Team Ratings for Postponed Games The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 10 Team Ratings for Round 10 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 10 Team Ratings for Round 10 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6 Team Ratings for Week 6 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 9 Team Ratings for Round 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6 Team Ratings for Round 6 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5 Team Ratings for Week 5 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 8 Team Ratings for Round 8 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5 Team Ratings for Round 5 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Final Team Ratings for the Final The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Briefly It's World Statistics Day (which only happens every five years). Well, because time zones it's not actually World Statistics Day for another half-hour as I write this. The US Secretary of Health has claimed teenage boys have sperm counts half of those in 65-year old men. Angela Rasmussen…

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4 Team Ratings for Week 4 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 7 Team Ratings for Round 7 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4 Team Ratings for Round 4 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3 Team Ratings for Week 3 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 6 Team Ratings for Round 6 The basic method is described on my Department

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3 Team Ratings for Round 3 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2 Team Ratings for Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 5 Team Ratings for Round 5 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2 Team Ratings for Round 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final Team Ratings for the Grand Final The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Briefly From the Guardian: Exclusive: Study gives 85.7% probability Badminton House version of The Lute Player is by 17th-century master. As I said about a previous rating from the same company, there's no way this probability is meaningful to three significant digits (except potentially to the…

Panadol scare R.F. Kennedy Jr managed to predict almost perfectly the day on which his research initiative would "find"  "the" "cause" of autism.  Of course, it's easier when you don't have to actually do any new research. What do we actually know about paracetamol and autism or ADHD? About a…

Estimating rare proportions There is a statistic circulating on social media claiming that the average person in the USA thinks 21% of the population is transgender.  Obviously this isn't true (both obviously it isn't 21% and obviously that isn't what the average person believes). It's similar in…

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 1 Team Ratings for Week 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 4 Team Ratings for Round 4 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1 Team Ratings for Round 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 9 Team Ratings for Week 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

AFL Predictions for the Grand Final Team Ratings for the Grand Final The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 3 Team Ratings for Round 3 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2 Team Ratings for Finals Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 8 Team Ratings for Week 8 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9 Team Ratings for Round 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

AFL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 2 Team Ratings for Round 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1 Team Ratings for Finals Week 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 7 Team Ratings for Week 7 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.