Cancer hates mornings too? Via the pharmaceutical chemist Derek Lowe, and also various media outlets, there is a new cancer study that randomised patients with lung cancer to get their immunotherapy infusions in the morning or the afternoon/evening.  The motivation  will have been the various…

Olympics condoms Every two years (since 1988) there is at least one round of stories about condoms at the Olympics (here's a couple of past StatsChat posts). Many athletes would have the funds and general executive function to be able to acquire condoms for themselves, and it's clear that a big…

Briefly The US FDA will not even review the application for Moderna's new flu vaccine. The FDA is very careful to give itself the flexibility to do this: if they say supportive things about your trial design today there is no legal guarantee that they can't change their minds six times before…

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1 Team Ratings for Week 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Coffee brain? Various sources are telling us that coffee and tea consumption can lower the risk of dementia (the Independent is clickbaiting it to "the common drinks linked with reducing risk of dementia", and 9News in Australia is even more extreme with The everyday act that could reduce your…

Medical chatbots: the questions or the answers A story in the NYTimes and also an unpaywalled story at 404 Media report a study of chatbots for medical advice, saying they are Bad and Not Good. The research study is published in Nature Medicine. It's a randomised controlled experiment, where…

Who did the Superbowl half-time show? Unless you have been living in a cave* you will probably be aware that the lead performer was one Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio, a Puerto Rican rapper who performs as "Bad Bunny".  The story is complicated a bit because of prediction markets.  The idea of…

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games Team Ratings for Delayed Games The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 17 Team Ratings for Round 17 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NFL Predictions for the Super Bowl Team Ratings for the Super Bowl The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 11 Team Ratings for Week 11 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 16 Team Ratings for Round 16 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11 Team Ratings for Round 11 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Briefly From the BBC "Vitamin D deficiency linked to hospital admissions". This is from a large British study correlating vitamin D levels in the blood with hospital admissions for respiratory infections. You might say "Someone ought to do a clinical trial to see if giving people vitamin D reduces…

It’s cold out there Right now, it is very cold in the central and eastern United States.  Minneapolis has been in the news (for this as well as the bad sort of ice), but it's not just there. The Mayor of New York has warned locals about a major snowstorm (and suggested it would be a good time to…

NFL Predictions for the Conference Final Team Ratings for the Conference Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NFL Predictions for the Divisional Finals Team Ratings for the Divisional Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Baby names The top baby names from 2025 are out, together with historic data to look at trends. Sadly, the historic data for boys' names and for girls' names come as three-page PDF tables with very small print, not as some conveniently computer-readable or human-readable format.  We can still see…

Pie chart issues This was on a real-estate agent's advertising leaflet at a local café If you aren't from around here, those are neighbourhoods in south central Auckland. Statisticians often complain about pie charts because it's hard to make numerical comparisons between the categories,…

Vibe graphs From Nicola Rennie on Bluesky, a bad graph found on LinkedIn: and a correct version of the same graph The bad version is probably from generative AI -- as Nicola says, it is bad in ways that would take substantial effort to achieve in commonly-used software, ranging from the weird bar…

NFL Predictions for the Wild Card Games Team Ratings for the Wild Card Games The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 10 Team Ratings for Week 10 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 15 Team Ratings for Round 15 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10 Team Ratings for Round 10 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NFL Predictions for Week 18 Team Ratings for Week 18 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 9 Team Ratings for Week 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 14 Team Ratings for Round 14 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9 Team Ratings for Round 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NFL Predictions for Week 17 Team Ratings for Week 17 This is a new competition for me. It took some time to get the data into the appropriate form and understand the game schedule. I was very surprised by the lack of any significant home ground advantage. After speaking to someone familiar with…

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 8 Team Ratings for Week 8 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 13 Team Ratings for Round 13 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8 Team Ratings for Round 8 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 7 Team Ratings for Week 7 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 12 Team Ratings for Round 12 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7 Team Ratings for Round 7 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11 Team Ratings for Round 11 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

50-year mortgages and avocado toast Sometimes society or government faces a problem where not enough money is being spent on something.  Kiwis on average aren't allocating enough money to retirement, or councils aren't investing enough money on water infrastructure. In that scenario, you want to…

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games Team Ratings for Postponed Games The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 10 Team Ratings for Round 10 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 10 Team Ratings for Round 10 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6 Team Ratings for Week 6 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 9 Team Ratings for Round 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6 Team Ratings for Round 6 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5 Team Ratings for Week 5 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 8 Team Ratings for Round 8 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5 Team Ratings for Round 5 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Final Team Ratings for the Final The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Briefly It's World Statistics Day (which only happens every five years). Well, because time zones it's not actually World Statistics Day for another half-hour as I write this. The US Secretary of Health has claimed teenage boys have sperm counts half of those in 65-year old men. Angela Rasmussen…

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4 Team Ratings for Week 4 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 7 Team Ratings for Round 7 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.