The Baseball DNA model has always liked Anthony Volpe, even though he's never produced a wRC+ over 90. Against lefties, he can smash a fastball. Against righties, he has average power, but excellent patience. Feels like a prime change-of-scenery candidate. Only 25. #MLB #Yankees

The Baseball DNA system has always loved Corey Seager. He's struggling so far this year, but everything looks fine under the hood. Hard contact machine against all six pitch buckets. Currently has a .206(!) BABIP. Results coming soon. #MLB #Rangers

Nolan McLean has a promising Baseball DNA. He has a good formula against righties -- called strikes with the FB and swinging strikes with the curve. Biggest thing that is holding him back is his fastball is very hittable for lefties. Probably not an ace, but sub-4.00 guys don't grow on trees. #MLB

Nick Martinez has been outstanding so far this year, but I see very little chance that he can keep it up. Good control, but allows a lot of medium contact. Only swing-and-miss pitch is his offspeed. Has a 2.29 ERA today, but would be surprised at anything under 4.00 going forward. #MLB #Rays

Griffin Jax has an interesting Baseball DNA. He's a fastball/changeup guy who rarely throws a breaking ball. Extremely effective against lefties, but he needs to find a secondary pitch against righties. If he doesn't, he can't last long as a starter. #MLB #Rays

I was a fan of Andrew Abbott coming into the season (2.87 ERA last year!), but he simply can't get righties out today. Swinging strikes are down and balls are up. He doesn't throw hard, but his FB velo is exactly where it's been for the past four years, so the issue is movement and location. #MLB

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I called Ben Rice a sleeper MVP candidate in April, and with Judge set to miss time, the opportunity is there for the taking. His biggest strength is a lack of weaknesses. Good eye, good contact ability, very good power against righty secondary pitches. Late career bloomer, but he's legit. #MLB

The wheels have fallen all the way off for Jose Soriano. Control is in the danger zone while also allowing hard and medium contact. Fastball isn't fooling lefties in the slightest. Could be a rough one against the Dodgers today. #MLB #Angels

Fantasy baseball projections are updated on the site: bergerball.com/baseball-pro...

Another good start for Payton Tolle last night, but I think he's due to regress a bit. Fastball looks lively, but none of his secondary pitches are generating whiffs. Also, there is too much hard and medium contact for a .258 BABIP. Current 2.28 ERA will be short-lived, but sub-4.00 is realistic.

Chase Burns currently has a league-average wRC+ allowed projection, due mostly to hard contact allowed. His current BABIP is .228, so a regression is coming. That being said, there is a lot to like here. Those are elite swinging strike numbers. Develop a secondary pitch and he'll be an ace. #MLB

The Baseball DNA model does not believe in the Chris Sanchez Cy Young case. It loves him against lefties, but sees him as very average against righties. He relies on called strikes and allows a ton of medium balls in play. Secondary pitches aren't notable. #MLB #Phillies

Death, taxes, and Brandon Lowe crushing righties. Struggles with breaking balls against both hands, but against righties he's able to foul enough off to stay alive and get a pitch he likes better. Fantasy bargain on weeks he faces 5+ righties. #MLB #Pirates

OK, this is quite fun. Love little sports games like this. My best run so far: www.82-0.com/share?id=Zre...

Fernando Tatis is an interesting case. Hilariously low called strike numbers, particularly against righty breaking balls. His wRC+ has been in the 130's the last two seasons and my current projection is 127 -- disappointing that it's not a step up, but he's the same guy. #MLB #Padres

I'm selling the Davis Martin breakout. Extremely average fastball, so he throws a ton of breaking balls and offspeed. He can throw his secondary stuff for strikes, but it's hittable. He's currently 8-1 with a 2.00 ERA. I would be shocked at anything under 4.50 going forward. #MLB #WhiteSox

I'm buying the Michael Harris II re-breakout. He hits secondary pitches much better than fastballs. Against lefties he essentially waits for breaking balls. Strange career -- 137 wRC+ as a 22-year-old, then regressed every year all the way to an 83 wRC+ last year. In the 140's now and still only 25.

Jacob deGrom is a few ticks off his "best pitcher in the world" days, but he's still looking elite. Above average swinging strikes everywhere. Excellent control. Breaking ball is killer against righties. Rarified air for a 38-year-old. #MLB #Rangers

Projections are updated on the site. Now includes my experimental ELO and xELO variables too! bergerball.com/baseball-pro...

Kyle Tucker is an interesting case. He puts a lot of balls into play (and not over the wall either), so his results are highly dependent on BABIP. This year he has a .333 BABIP against lefties and .277 against righties, so I would expect regression in both directions. Long story short -- he's fine.

Carlos Rodon looks healthy and as solid as ever. Excellent swinging strike rates across the board. Game-to-game performance depends on how many lefties he gets to face. Tough matchup today with the A's likely going with eight righties. #MLB #Yankees

Yandy Diaz is underrated. Elite contact and eye skills, plus good hard/medium contact on most pitch types. He's Yordan-lite. His current 148 wRC+ is probably running hot, but he's as solid as they come. This will be his ninth straight year with a wRC+ above 110. #MLB #Rays

One thing I've been messing around with lately is a chess-style ELO rating for players, where each plate appearance is a match that can be won or lost. Still tuning it, but kind of a fun Top 10:

I've been driving the Jo Adell bandwagon the last couple of years, but I have to admit that things aren't looking great. Can still put a charge into a ball, but very few medium balls in play and a huge swinging strike issue against lefty fastballs. Still only 27 (coping). #MLB #Angels

Nathan Eovaldi is an ageless wonder. Limits hard and medium contact on nearly every pitch. Doesn't get many swinging strikes on his fastball or breaking ball, but has a good offspeed and throws it often. Justified sub-4.00 ERA. #MLB #Rangers

Mookie Betts currently has a 79 wRC+ but his underlying numbers are looking great. Even when he struggles, he rarely strikes out, but the leverage point is power. Right now his power looks good, especially on breaking balls. Buy low. #MLB #Dodgers

My projection from Trent Grisham has come down quite a bit over the last few weeks, but still look strong. Extremely patient and hits fastballs hard against both hands. Kind of an amazing career turnaround for a guy who had wRC+'s in the 80's during his age 25 and 26 seasons. #MLB #Yankees

Andres Munoz currently has a 4.79 ERA, but everything looks great under the hood. Excellent swinging strike numbers on both pitches against both hands. Tough to get hard or medium contact on his fastball. His wRC+ allowed projection is off the charts vs. R (48) and overall (54). #MLB #Mariners

I'm not sure what to make of Gavin Williams. Good swinging strike numbers on his fastball against both hands, but not much of a secondary arsenal to speak of. Lots of hard and medium contact too (13% barrel rate!). The Baseball DNA model thinks he's in for a major regression. #MLB #Guardians

Exciting that we are getting a vintage Mike Trout season at 34. His power looks fairly average, but average power plays great when you have a truly elite eye. Patient on fastballs, crushes secondary pitches. #MLB #Angels

The Baseball DNA model is very bearish on Ronald Acuna right now. Sees him as average against righties and awful against lefties. The numbers on the visual don't look quite that bad to me, but there are swing metrics and multiple time windows included in the model that aren't represented here. #MLB

Colton Cowser has a strange Baseball DNA card. Takes a ton of called strikes, probably the most I've ever seen. Hopeless against lefty breaking balls, but hits righty ones very well. Whatever he's doing, the predictive model loves it against righties (projected 148 wRC+). #MLB #Orioles

Baseball DNA is way down on Aaron Judge right now. Still crushes fastballs against both hands, but is looking extremely average beyond that. Righties are throwing him mostly secondary pitches and it's working. #MLB #Yankees

Here's a surprising one. Nick Castellanos has a 59 wRC+ right now, but Baseball DNA sees a solid hitter. Lots of hard and medium balls in play against all pitch types. Best barrel rate in three years (9.5%). Too many whiffs against breaking pitches, but don't count him out yet. #MLB #Padres

Baseball DNA has always been a fan of Zebby Matthews. Ace-level projection against righties, but needs to find a solid secondary pitch against lefties. Right now the breaking ball is very hittable. Promising. #MLB #Twins

Projections are updated on the site: bergerball.com/baseball-pro...

Jac Caglianone only has a 101 wRC+, but his Baseball DNA is saying "breakout." Very good hard and medium ball in play numbers against lefty fastballs and righty secondary pitches. His 16.5% barrel rate is the same as Shohei's. Results are coming. #MLB #Royals

Another vintage Brandon Nimmo season. Not much power outside of righty secondary pitches, but elite eye keeps that walk rate in the 20% range. Reminds me of late-career Joey Votto. #MLB #Rangers

The Cam Schlittler breakout looks legit to me. Breaking ball looks average and never throws offspeed, but it doesn't matter because his fastball is elite and he attacks the zone ferociously with it. Current ERA is 1.50, which won't last, but he's safely a sub-3.50 guy. #MLB #Yankees

Baseball DNA's best starter in MLB? Jacob Misiorowski. Simply absurd swinging strike numbers on his fastball against both hands. Breaking ball looks shockingly hittable, but doesn't matter as long as his fastball is this dominant. Projected opposing wRC+ is off the charts against righties (53). #MLB

I'll be curious to watch Jose Soriano today. His Baseball DNA still looks very good against righties, but has gotten downright horrible against lefties. Nightmare matchup against the A's who have several good lefties. #MLB #Angels

Junior Caminero started slow this year, but he's totally back now. Crushes righty fastballs and breaking balls. Most players have to trade contact for power (even Shohei, Judge, and Schwarber). Caminero is closer to the Yordan mold. #MLB #Rays

This might be my hottest take of the year: I still think Christopher Morel is good. He's currently sporting an 11 wRC+ as a bench bat for the Marlins, but his Baseball DNA numbers look good. Above average hard hit rates on 5/6 pitch buckets. Hits breaking balls very well against both hands. #MLB

Kazuma Okamoto has an exciting Baseball DNA card so far. Excellent power against righty fastballs and offspeed. He struggles with righty breaking balls, so expect more of those. Against lefties, he only has 46 PAs, but looking solid. #MLB #BlueJays

Tyler Mahle is much better than his current numbers suggest. His fastball is a bit wild, but avoids hard and medium contact at outstanding levels. He should be in the 3.50-4.00 ERA range, but a .336 BABIP has his current ERA over 5.50. Interesting deadline target. #MLB #Giants

Joe Ryan is underrated because he's so consistent. Remind me of Brad Radke in that way. His Baseball DNA is notable because he rarely throws breaking balls, which is odd for a SP. Fastball in the low 90's, but still generates outstanding swinging strike rates. #MLB #Twins

Nick Kurtz has a fun Baseball DNA card. Above average power and patience on all three pitch buckets against righties, leading to a 155 wRC+ strong-side projection. Zero power against lefties. Once lefties start to challenge him more, we'll see if he's a MVP candidate or a very good platoon guy. #MLB

Baseball DNA has always been a fan of Kyle Schwarber. Incredibly patient approach, then crushes dingers. His current wRC+ of 167 is probably running a bit hot, but he's a MVP candidate. #MLB #Phillies