Another cool day is in store for our region. Highs like yesterday will be at least 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Absolutely beautiful snow covered image of Mt. Ashland from the lodge webcam. This is stunning to see this early in the season.

Visible satellite imagery is showing more moisture advancing east off the Pacific. With the low still positioned offshore we will see showers remain the forecast today.

Here is an updated look at the radar return as of 7:45 AM. We will continue to see the chance of showers and thunderstorms developing throughout the day again today.

Models are showing a deep area of low pressure developing offshore by late Saturday the 18th of October. This could be our first larger scale wind event of the fall season, based on current model projections. I am monitoring this closely and will provide more updated as we get new model data.

Radar returns as of 8:30 AM show the primary band of precipitation gradually shifting east with the cold front. We have seen a few lightning strikes in the northern Rogue Valley picked up by lightning detection systems.

Here is the latest thunderstorm outlook from the Storm Prediction Center at NOAA. Today now looks to be the best chance of seeing more widespread thunderstorm potential. Isolated thunderstorms have already been observed offshore and moving inland.

Air Quality Update 10/10/25 7 AM The HRRR smoke modeling is not available due to the government shutdown. The image below shows current air quality levels. Smoke from active wildfires are impacting air quality nearby and downwind of fires. I will share these until fire season is over for SW Oregon.

High temperatures today will feel very much like what we would see in November. We will be as much as 15 degrees below normal for today for most locations.

Radar returns as of 7:05 AM are picking up on showers and a few isolated thunderstorms moving inland across our forecast area. These are tracking generally from southwest to northeast.

Visible satellite imagery and the lightning detection setting shows where active thunderstorms have developed this morning. We have had a few move inland from the coast. Areas in green indicate active strikes.

Infrared satellite imagery shows a primary low pressure center spinning offshore. This is bringing moisture inland under southwest gold aloft. We also have two tropical systems well to the south of our region. Models indicate that some of the moisture from these systems could drift northward.

The cooler airmass is in place and we are certainly seeing it in the low temperatures west of the Cascades this morning. Look for true fall weather conditions to develop as we head into the day and through the first half of next week.

Here are the latest GFS model run accumulated precipitation estimates from now through late Tuesday evening.

The Storm Prediction Center at NOAA indicates the potential of seeing thunderstorms develop on Saturday. Areas in light green could see isolated thunderstorms with gusty winds and lightning. These could produce moderate to heavy rainfall at times.

Radar returns are showing a few areas of light showers focused mostly along the Cascade crest and east of the Cascades.

Air Quality Update 10/9/25 7 AM The HRRR smoke modeling is not available due to the government shutdown. The image below shows current air quality levels. Smoke from active wildfires are impacting air quality nearby and downwind of fires. I will share these until fire season is over for SW Oregon.

A much cooler airmass has arrived and we will certainly feel it in terms of high temperatures for today. Here are the latest GFS model forecast highs for today across the region.

Visible satellite imagery this morning shows a cold front shifting east and showers trailing behind the front. Much cooler temperatures will follow over the next few days as we enter a more active weather pattern.

The Storm Prediction Center at NOAA indicates the potential of seeing thunderstorms develop on Saturday. Areas in light green could see isolated thunderstorms with gusty winds and lightning. These could produce moderate to heavy rainfall at times.

The airmass visible satellite imagery this evening shows a cold front moving inland. We can also see an area of showers and colder airmass developing behind the front. This will be moving inland heading into tomorrow with showers likely to develop across the region.

Updated European weather modeling showing accumulated precipitation estimates and snowfall accumulations from now through Tuesday the 14th of October. Our first measurable snowfall of the season is possible across the Cascades and Siskiyous.

Infrared satellite imagery of the eastern Pacific provides a great view of the developing weak cold front offshore. You can see it just off the Oregon and Washington coast. A deep area of low pressure is developing off Alaska. Over the next few days this low will deepen to around 962 millibars.

It is a beautiful start to the morning in the Rogue Valley. Here is a look at the western foothills from the Rogue Valley Manor webcam. This is from the AlertWest webcam network.

Air Quality Update 10/8/25 7 AM The HRRR smoke modeling is not available due to the government shutdown. The image below shows current air quality levels. Smoke from active wildfires are impacting air quality nearby and downwind of fires.

Temperatures will gradually start to trend downward today as high pressure weakens and we start to see a shift to a more active pattern as we close out the work week into this weekend. Here are the latest GFS model run high temperatures.

There are subtle indications this morning that the pattern is starting to change. We are seeing an increase in areas of fog and low clouds across portions of the Umpqua and Willamette valleys. Higher level cloud are also on the increase to our north.

High pressure is firmly in place across the region and the visible satellite shows this very well. We are however seeing a pattern shift developing off to the west in the open waters of the Pacific. Moisture will take time to track east, but most areas will see some measurable rainfall by Friday.

Here is a look at the latest GFS model run showing estimated precipitation amounts from tomorrow through the morning of the 23rd of October.

A beautiful early fall morning from the Britt webcam in Jacksonville looking east. Another clear sky day is in store for our region with above normal temperatures.

Air Quality Update 10/7/25 8 AM The HRRR smoke modeling is not available due to the government shutdown. The image below shows current air quality levels. Smoke from active wildfires are impacting air quality nearby and downwind of fires.

The European weather model run this morning is showing a possibility of accumulating snowfall across the higher elevations of the Cascades beginning late Friday into early next week. Given ground surface temperatures accumulations are likely going to be less than model projections.

Highs today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with temperatures trending at least 8 degrees above normal for most locations. Here are the projected highs across the region.

Satellite imagery this morning shows a carbon copy of what we saw develop yesterday. The one thing that will change slightly is the winds should be a bit calmer across the region. Look for clear and sunny skies and temperatures trending above normal.

The GFS model is indicating that measurable rainfall will hold off until around Friday morning. We will however see progressively wetter conditions heading into the weekend and next week. The second graphic shows precipitation estimates from now through the 22nd of October.

I thought it would be interesting to show where reservoir levels are at currently as we head into a new water year this month. You can see many of the larger reservoirs are looking quite healthy even with demands for irrigation this summer.

Air Quality Update 10/6/25 7 AM The HRRR smoke modeling is not available due to the government shutdown. The image below shows current air quality levels. Smoke from active wildfires are impacting air quality nearby and downwind of fires.

Forecast high temperatures continue to trend upward today in response to the ridge of high pressure overhead. We will see highs at least 5 degrees above normal.

Skies are clear across the region this morning as high pressure begins to strengthen. Even the coastal zones are mostly free of clouds and fog under offshore flow aloft.

Here is the latest European model run showing 14 day precipitation estimates. We will see precipitation start to arrive around Thursday of next week.

Winds will pick up across the region today. Here are the latest 24 hour peak wind gusts through early tomorrow morning. Winds could gust in excess of 35-40 across the higher elevations.

Air Quality Update 10/5/25 7 AM The HRRR smoke modeling is not available due to the government shutdown. The image below shows current air quality levels. Smoke from active wildfires are impacting air quality nearby and downwind of fires.

High temperatures will begin to trend upward today and will trend above normal to start off the work week. Here is a look at the forecast highs across the region based off the GFS model run.

Visible satellite imagery shows areas of fog and low clouds west of the Cascades. Skies are starting to clear for the rest of the region as we begin to see a pattern shift.

With the potential for gusty winds developing around Sunday evening into Monday we could see an elevated fire weather risk for portions of our region. The graphic below shows where the highest risks are. Wind gusts could increase to 20-30 mph. The higher elevations will see the strongest winds.

It is a cold start for most of the interior valleys this morning. Here are the latest surface temperatures as of 7 AM. Frost and freeze conditions have verified east of the Cascades.

Air Quality Update 10/4/25 7 AM The HRRR smoke modeling is not available due to the government shutdown. The image below shows current air quality levels. Smoke from active wildfires are impacting air quality nearby and downwind of fires.

High temperatures continue to remain below normal across the region today. Areas west of the Cascades will see highs in the mid to upper 60’s.

Satellite imagery this morning shows a similar setup as what we experienced yesterday. There are however fewer lower level clouds and fog in place west of the Cascades. Overnight lows east of the Cascades have resulted in frost and freeze conditions.

Cloud cover has been sticking around most of the day across the region. We will see more clearing overnight as high pressure builds across the region. Overnight lows east of the Cascades will drop to near to even below freezing.