Agreed, Tony. Why should Powell give Trump what he wants by resigning? He should stick to his guns and operate independently according to the traditions of the US constitution.

My latest column in #MailonSunday today. UK inflation is heading above 5 percent this autumn and Trump tariffs could make things worse. Bank of England should hold off from further interest rate cuts until the tariff & inflation situation is clearer. www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/market...

Price hikes this month from a variety of sources - energy/water bills, broadband, TV & phone charges, pay increases and additional employer NICs, council tax, etc. CPI inflation to exceed 5pc later this year and no scope to cut interest rates.

Inflation alert: Pay rising at 6pc in U.K. - totally incompatible with 2pc inflation. Expected big cuts in interest rates now look unlikely as Bank of England battles with another surge in inflation, which will get added momentum from NI & minimum wage increases in April.

@marklewisohn.bsky.social Just finished listening to the excellent audio book of “Tune In” - a brilliant + highly detailed account of the early Beatles years. Would highly recommend it. Also have the signed hardback book from when I met Mark in 2010s. Roll on the 2nd & 3rd volumes of the trilogy!

My latest blog, posted on the NIESR website. A sceptical look at the UK government’s growth agenda, which faces a number of headwinds, including the impact of Budget measures.

Rachel Reeves’s growth speech today was a damp squib. Promises to expand Heathrow are meaningless when gov’ts since 2003 have said the same. Other promises - to reform planning & benefits - have been made many times before. Nothing in the speech can offset the Budget tax rises hitting business.

Rachel Reeves wants us to talk up the UK economy but hard to do that when she has spent the past 6 months exaggerating UK’s economic problems so she can blame the Tories. Talk is not enough. Action is needed. Tim to ease the damaging impact of Budget tax rises.

@ukjeremyclarke.bsky.social Welcome to BlueSky, Jeremy. The thinking person’s social media network!

Very good comment from Rob on how air fares distorted the December inflation figures.

UK inflation slightly better than expected todaay. Headline CPI inflation at 2.5pc (from 2.6pc). Core inflation still over 3pc at 3.2pc. Services inflation still high - 4.4pc. When minimum wage rises and higher employer NI kick in from April, CPI inflation will be up again, rising above 3pc.

Instead of following the example of the cautious & prudent Gordon Brown, Rachel Reeves is now pursuing same policies as Denis Healey in 1974/5 - big rises in spending, tax and borrowing. Result is likely to be the same - a major financial crisis and policy U-turn.

Rachel Reeves is asking fellow cabinet ministers for ideas on how to generate economic growth. She is the Chancellor with over 3,000 Treasury civil servants to help her. If she cannot come up with a decent growth plan with all those resources, it’s not clear her Cabinet colleagues will do better!

Root of Chancellor Reeves’s problems is big rises in public spending in October Budget - leading to higher borrowing, tax & inflation. Here’s my alternative plan, published pre-Budget: using reforms and economies to gradually reduce the gov’t expenditure share of GDP to 40pc, its long-term average.

Stephen Stills, legendary guitarist, singer and songwriter, was 80 yesterday. Best known as member of Crosby, Stills & Nash and Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young. Also member of Buffalo Springfield in 60s and solo artist in 70s. Happy, birthday Stephen!

Elvis Top 5 songs : Fans were asked to vote ahead of what would have been the King of Rock and Roll’s 90th birthday. But all the Top 5 are from the 60s/70s. No classic rock n’roll somgs from the 50s!

Bank ‘to cut interest rates at least four times in 2025’ says the latest Times survey. I think with rising inflation, the Bank will struggle to justify this. 2-3 rate cuts more likely leaving Bank Rate at 4-4.25pc at year-end. www.thetimes.com/article/5856...

Happy New Year to all my followers. I don’t expect 2025 to be a good year for the UK economy, however, with very little growth (about 1 percent - half OBR forecast) and inflation above 3 percent for much of the year - due to persistent underlying inflation, the Budget & international uncertainties .

My latest column in The Times today argues that UK Bank Rate should stay in the 4-5 percent range next year and possibly beyond. Hoping for bigger cuts in interest rates would be unrealistic following the Budget. See links below: www.thetimes.com/article/6451...

UK inflation rate rises for second month in a row - up from 1.7pc in Sept to 2.6pc in November, nearly 1pc rise in just 2 months. UK inflation heading for over 3pc next year!

Keep interest rates unchanged, says Times shadow MPC. Latest analysis of tomorrow’s interest rate decision in today’s Times. Shadow Committee votes 8-1 to keep Bank Rate at 4.75pc and urges caution about cuts in 2025. www.thetimes.com/article/6b7c...

UK wage increases pick up again - back over 5 percent and 5.4pc in the private sector, which is the key figure for inflation prospects. Very difficult for #MPC to cut interest rates again until pay increases subside significantly.

Poor behaviour by ReformUK Party: Nigel Farage’s spokesman said he has ‘not taken part in “Behaviour Code Awareness Training” and has no intention of engaging with this woke DEI scheme’ Why not?

Why do many economic commentators regard the current level of UK interest rates as “high”? They’re not high relative to the decade before the Financial Crisis (4-5pc), ave inflation in past 5 years (4.5pc) or current wage increases (nearly 5pc). 4.75pc UK Bank Rate is not far from the new normal.

UK GDP grew by 1.5 percent in the 10 months Oct 2023 to Aug 2024 and has since slipped back to stand 1.3pc above a year ago. Looking back further, ave UK economic growth in the past 10 years was just 1.2 percent a year. The worry is that 1.2-1.3 percent is the “new normal” for UK economic growth.

UK GDP drops by 0.1 percent in October, a disappointment for Chancellor Rachel Reeves who had hoped to see a return to growth. But she talked the economy down through the summer and hit businesses with a big tax grab in the autumn. So she should not be surprised.

BlueSky has just reached another milestone: 25m users. Welcome to all the new users who have joined to make this possible. Onwards and upwards to 30m and beyond!

BlueSky is brilliant! Up to 25m users within the next few hours. Competing social media networks eat your heart out!

Tonight’s the night (UK time) when BlueSky will hit 25 million users. Congratulations in advance on reaching a quarter century (x million) users in the world of social media. “x” - we are coming after you!

NHS England say 1,861 beds taken up with flu cases. But the total number of beds is over 130,000 - so that is less than 1.5 percent. Hardly worth being splashed all over the TV News this morning - Sky News take note!

BlueSky is now closing in on 25million users. About 150,000 more needed, which should be achieved by tomorrow (Thu 12th Dec) afternoon/evening UK time at the current rate of new users joining. You can monitor progress at: bsky-users.theo.io

The Chancellor Rachel Reeves is reported to be seeking 5 percent cuts from government departments to save money. She might follow the example of Jim Hacker (Yes Minister) who threatened to withhold honours from civil servants who did not deliver 5 per cent spending cuts! m.imdb.com/title/tt0751...

Well spotted Philip. As Captain Mainwairing used to say to his troop on Dad’s Army when he was corrected: “I wondered when someone would point that out”!

music.youtube.com/watch?v=PTsl... Happy 50th anniversary to Merry Xmas Everybody by Slade - released on this day in 1974. It brought a bit of joy after a year of economic and political turmoil. Sound familiar? One of the best Christmas songs of all time.

After ignoring the tragic situation in Syria for the past 14 years, western politicians and commentators are wading in to say what should now happen. That is surely for the Syrian people to decide. Western interventions in the Middle East have a very poor track record of helping the people there.

Great to see @kamalahmednews.bsky.social, @lindayueh.bsky.social and @phillipcollins.bsky.social on @skynewsrss.bsky.social this morning discussing the news and politics with Sir Trevor Phillips. An excellent Sunday morning politics and news show, so much better than the #BBC offering.

26m by Christmas? Why not? Highly achievable. Then 30m by end Jan. The more actively we use BlueSky, the better network it will become and the more readily people with join!

Carol Vorderman must have been using a different British Rail to the train service I used in the 1970s and 1980s! In any case, the rail delays this morning were due to Network Rail which is already state-owned.

CBI economic forecasts out today - projecting growth of 1.6pc (down from 1.9pc previously) in 2025 and 1.5pc in 2026. This is lower than OBR (2025:2pc; 2026:1.8pc) but above the consensus monitored by the Treasury (2025:1.3pc; 2026:1.4pc). Budget expected to hit growth, CBI says.

Fully agree with this. When gov’t is spending around £50,000 per household each year through this Parliament, to condense what we might expect for all this money to 6 simplistic targets is ridiculous.

If Starmer’s six targets are meant to impress us, it is worth noting that gov’t will be spending around £50,000 per household each year through this Parliament. Achieving the targets, 2 of which are heavily dependent on the private sector, would not represent good value for all this public money!

Good assessment from the Resolution Foundation …

capx.co/what-is-goin... My latest CapX blog on the current difficulties at the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) with employment data. This is not a signal that all UK economic data is unreliable, but it is part of a recurring pattern of slow and ineffective management of problems by the ONS.

www.cityam.com/bank-of-engl... Andrew Bailey says that business response to National Insurance rise will be crucial in shaping interest rate policy in year ahead. Uncertainty created by Budget clouds prospect of rate cuts next year.

David Smith writes today about problems with official statistics - a recurring theme in my 40+ year career in economics. But the frustrating thing is how slow our statisticians are to sort out problems when they occur. ONS says it will take 3 yrs to sort out jobs data. They should be given 90 days!

Congratulations s to BlueSky on reaching 24 million users! 25 million here we come.

Your challenge for today - use these 2 words highlighted by the champion wordsmith from Countdown, Susie Dent!

Tim Montgomerie leaves one losing party and joins another - the Reform Party, which wants to take the UK back to the 1950s!

Nationalisation failed to solve industry problems in the 1960s/70s and the renationalisation of train companies is set to fail again. There is no need to take train companies operating satisfactorily into public ownership. No reason to believe gov’t will run them better than current operators.

BBC should take Masterchef off the air immediately. After all the allegations we can’t be sure inappropriate behaviour was not a feature of recording the shows about to be shown. Suspended programmes should be re-edited to remove the contribution of Greg Wallace or held back for future transmission.