🚨I've launched a new Substack — The Political Economy of AI 🚨 Writing in a personal capacity, I'll be looking at how key principles & assumptions in economics & policy might be reshaped by AI. Please read, subscribe and challenge! open.substack.com/pub/raoulrup...

It was great to contribute to this. You can read my essay (focused on the practicalities of an abundance agenda in the UK) but more importantly all the other great ones in this edition of Progressive Review. I hope some of these ideas are picked up in HMG.

An interesting paper on an underexplored part of Brexit impacts. Broadly confirms what those of us who worked with business on implementation saw first hand. But I think the key point here is the one they make about sunk costs. I think many of these are already in play (not 3-5 years away) (1/4)

🚨New report from us BCG CfG today🚨 we take a sector & firm view of UK productivity growth over past 3 decades, including benchmarking against peers. UK is falling back from global frontier but for quite different reasons in different sectors 1/

We think (happy to be corrected) this is the broadest & deepest study of its kind, building on existing academic work. We take a longer timeline & a wider set of different types of infra as well as a larger country group than ever before. For those interested in the modelling approach, details below

🚨New report from us @BCG 🚨. We look at 7 types of infrastructure across 92 countries over 30 years to understand their economic benefits. Key message: a +5% increase in infrastructure stock is associated with +0.3 to +0.45pp higher long-run GDP growth. This is huge... 1/ www.bcg.com/publications...

Good piece, well worth a read. The gap between reality & rhetoric remains large. I suspect part of the problem is that if you put to many leaders of middle powers that they should adopt a principled and pragmatic approach, most would argue that they already are!

🚨New research🚨 out today from us at BCG Centre for Growth – looking at how the UK can unlock further value from healthcare innovation. As it stands, we leave significant value (£78bn) on the table, growing behind Italy & Spain in some health subsectors 1/ www.bcg.com/publications...

Ironically during the original negotiations it was the EU (especially France and Macron) that wanted to keep defence more separate. He regularly told us - we can have a great relationship on defence etc but on Brexit & trade it will be painful. As Martin says, it's not that simple...(1/3)

This is an interesting (& somewhat crazy chart) from the OECD Global Dept Report out today. Huge amounts of additional borrowing from corporates not shifting the dial on investment. www.oecd.org/en/publicati...

Agreed with Jill on this. One budget would make sense, just look at the swings in UK borrowing costs we've seen this year. I can though understand the case for two budgets. What I really can't see the case for is one budget with two separate forecasts per year. Always a terrible idea.

In this work we have (for 1st time?!) estimated share of UK announced infrastructure projects that never go ahead - 37%!! Based on data from 2010-15, 16% of announced projects get scrapped while a further 21% get stuck in planning/preconstruction stage for over a decade.

This is a superb report and thread. If we want a playbook for how to do this, it is in our own history. From 1947 to 1979 the British state successfully coordinated a gargantuan programme of infrastructure development (water, gas, electricity) and housebuilding.

🚨New research🚨 out today from us at BCG Centre for Growth – based on current project pipeline next 5 years could see £700-£900bn invested across 8 key sectors. This is 2.1x-2.7x level in past 5 years. Huge opportunity for the UK. But... 1/ www.bcg.com/united-kingd...

Finally made the move over from the other place! Starting off with a recent piece I wrote about what the Chancellor needs to do to deliver on growth ambitions. A big part is, focus on delivery & implementation (often the hardest things in govt) (1/2) www.linkedin.com/pulse/easier...

bsky.app/profile/rrup... Anyone interested in growth, politics, the EU and much more should follow Raoul