Pierre Lestru
@oddsinshadow.bsky.social
π€ 38
π₯ 112
π 176
Sports and data nerd, I publish forecasting sports probabilities. Check them out at oddsinshadow.com
π Europe's Big 5 Title Race Odds Movers Up π: Arsenal: 86% β 94% Barcelona: 57% β 65% Inter: 83% β 89% Down π: Real Madrid: 42% β 35% Aston Villa: 7% β 2% Milan: 11% β 7% Manchester City: 7% β 4% Roma: 2% β 0%
1 day ago
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π Serie A (Italy) title odds Inter β 89% Milan β 7% Napoli β 2% Juventus β 1%
1 day ago
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π Ligue 1 (France) title odds Paris Saint-Germain β 96% Lens β 3% Others <1%
1 day ago
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π La Liga (Spain) title odds Barcelona β 65% Real Madrid β 35%
1 day ago
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π Premier League (England) title odds Arsenal β 94% Manchester City β 4% Aston Villa β 2%
1 day ago
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π UEFA Europa League title odds after league phase conclusion Aston Villa β 43% Roma β 12% Porto β 9% Lyon β 7% Nottingham Forest β 5% Stuttgart β 5% Real Betis β 5% Freiburg β 3% Braga β 3% Bologna β 2%
6 days ago
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π UEFA Europa League Playoff Ties β Qualification chances (1/2) πΉ Stuttgart vs Celtic β 83% / 17% πΉ Bologna vs Brann β 80% / 20% πΉ Lille vs Red Star β 74% / 26% πΉ Nottingham Forest vs FenerbahΓ§e β 67% / 33%
6 days ago
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π UEFA Champions League title odds update after league phase conclusion Arsenal β 31% Bayern Munich β 16% Manchester City β 9% Liverpool β 8% Barcelona β 7% Paris Saint-Germain β 7% Chelsea β 5% Real Madrid β 4% Inter β 4% Newcastle United β 2%
6 days ago
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π UCL Playoff Ties β Qualification chances (1/2) πΉ Newcastle vs QarabaΔ β 93% / 7% πΉ PSG vs Monaco β 91% / 9% πΉ Inter vs BodΓΈ/Glimt β 87% / 13% πΉ AtlΓ©tico vs Brugge β 79% / 21%
6 days ago
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You can check all the updated Champions League projections on our website:
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Probabilistic Forecasts for Major Sports League
https://www.oddsinshadow.com/league/UEFA%20Champions%20League
7 days ago
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π On the flip side, based on our preseason projections, these teams were expected to reach the KO phase, but fell short: π» Napoli β 86% π» Villarreal β 76% π» Athletic Clubβ 66% π» PSVβ 55% π» Eintracht Frankfurt β 54%
7 days ago
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π Based on our preseason projections (September 15), these teams were far from locks, yet made it to the KO phase: πΉ Qarabag β 8% πΉ BodΓΈ/Glimt β 32% πΉ Galatasaray β 48% πΉ Club Brugge β 57% πΉ Olympiacos β 58%
7 days ago
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π Europa League Final Matchday - Top 8 Odds 11 teams fighting to advance directly to the Round of 16 Braga β 96% Roma β 83% Porto β 70% Real Betis β 58% Genk β 36% FerencvΓ‘ros β 21% Stuttgart β 16% Red Star β 10% Celta Vigo β 5% Bologna β 4% PAOK β 2%
7 days ago
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π Europa League Final Matchday - KO Qualification Odds 10 teams battling for the final 4 spots Lille β 99% Brann β 94% Celtic β 73% Young Boys β 48% Ludogorets Razgrad β 31% Basel β 28% Feyenoord β 13% FCSB β 7% Go Ahead Eagles β 5% RB Salzburg β 2%
7 days ago
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π UCL Final Matchday Results Hereβs how it played out Marseille β 95% β Leverkusen β 93% β Monaco β 75% β PSV β 60% β Athletic β 55% β Olympiacos β 55% β Napoli β 51% β Brugge β 37% β Benfica β 25% β Pafos FC β 16% β BodΓΈ/Glimt β 12% β Copenhagen β 10% β Ajax β 9% β Union SG β 7% β
7 days ago
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π UCL Final Matchday - Top 8 Odds 14 teams battling to enter the Round of 16 Liverpool β 96% Real Madrid β 85% Barcelona β 80% Man City β 60% Paris SG β 57% Tottenham β 50% AtlΓ©tico Madrid β 49% Chelsea β 37% Sporting CP β 34% Newcastle β 23% Atalanta β 16% Inter β 7% Juventus β 6% Dortmund β 1%
8 days ago
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π UCL Final Matchday - KO Qualification Odds 14 teams battling for the final 6 spots Marseille β 95% Leverkusen β 93% Monaco β 75% PSV β 60% Athletic Club β 55% Olympiacos β 55% Napoli β 51% Club Brugge β 37% Benfica β 25% Pafos FC β 16% BodΓΈ/Glimt β 12% FC Copenhagen β 10% Ajax β 9% Union SG β 7%
8 days ago
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π Europe's Big 5 Title Race Odds Movers (after week of Jan 25) Up π: Real Madrid: 35% β 41% Inter: 78% β 83% Aston Villa: 2% β 6% Manchester City: 3% β 8% Paris Saint-Germain: 91% β 95% Down π: Arsenal: 95% β 86% Barcelona: 64% β 57% Lens: 8% β 4% Napoli: 6% β 3%
8 days ago
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π Ligue 1 (France) title odds Paris Saint-Germain β 95% Lens β 4% Marseille β 1%
8 days ago
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π Serie A (Italy) title odds Inter β 83% Milan β 10% Napoli β 3% Roma β 2% Juventus β 2%
9 days ago
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π La Liga (Spain) title odds Barcelona β 57% Real Madrid β 41% AtlΓ©tico Madrid β 2%
9 days ago
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π Premier League (England) title odds Arsenal β 86% Manchester City β 8% Aston Villa β 6%
9 days ago
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π Europa League Knockout Qualification Movers Up π: Dinamo Zagreb: 58% β 100% Brann: 78% β 94% Celtic: 55% β 71% Feyenoord: 4% β 13% PAOK: 95% β 100% Down π: Basel: 48% β 27% Ludogorets: 52% β 33% FCSB: 26% β 8% Young Boys: 64% β 49% Go Ahead Eagles: 18% β 5%
13 days ago
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π Europa League β Knockout Qualification Odds Here are the teams battling to reach the knockout stage π Lille β 99% Brann β 94% Celtic β 71% Young Boys β 49% Ludogorets β 33% Basel β 27% Feyenoord β 13% FCSB β 8% Go Ahead Eagles β 5% RB Salzburg β 2%
13 days ago
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π Europa League Top 8 Odds Movers Up π: Braga: 49% β 95% Roma: 44% β 83% Genk: 5% β 35% Freiburg: 83% β 99% Red Star: 2% β 10% Down π: Bologna: 37% β 5% Nottingham Forest: 30% β 0% Stuttgart: 42% β 15% Real Betis: 82% β 59% FerencvΓ‘ros: 45% β 24%
13 days ago
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π Europa League β Top 8 Odds Here are the teams battling to reach the top 8 π Aston Villa β 100% Lyon β 100% Midtjylland β 100% Freiburg β 99% Braga β 95% Roma β 83% Porto β 69% Real Betis β 59% Genk β 35% FerencvΓ‘ros β 24% Stuttgart β 15% Red Star β 10% Bologna β 5% Celta Vigo β 5% PAOK β 3%
13 days ago
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π Europa League Title Race Odds Movers Up π: Roma: 12% β 14% Aston Villa: 39% β 41% Down π: Real Betis: 8% β 5% Nottingham Forest: 7% β 5%
13 days ago
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π UEFA Europa League title odds (after Matchday 7) Aston Villa β 41% Roma β 14% Porto β 8% Lyon β 6% Real Betis β 5% Nottingham Forest β 5% Stuttgart β 4% Freiburg β 3% Celta Vigo β 2% Bologna β 2%
13 days ago
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π Champions League Knockout Qualification Odds Movers Up π: QarabaΔ: 37% β 100% Athletic Club: 19% β 56% Olympiacos: 22% β 54% BodΓΈ/Glimt: 1% β 12% Club Brugge: 29% β 39% Down π: PSV: 87% β 59% Benfica: 52% β 25% Napoli: 76% β 53% Monaco: 94% β 75% FC Copenhagen: 29% β 10%
13 days ago
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π Champions League β Knockout Qualification Odds With one match left, here are the teams battling to reach the knockout stage π Monaco β 75% PSV β 59% Athletic Club β 56% Olympiacos β 54% Napoli β 53% Club Brugge β 39% Benfica β 25% Pafos FC β 15% BodΓΈ/Glimt β 12% FC Copenhagen β 10% Ajax β 9%
13 days ago
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π Champions League Top 8 Odds Movers Up π: Barcelona: 39% β 80% Liverpool: 67% β 96% Tottenham Hotspur: 21% β 48% Sporting CP: 9% β 33% Real Madrid: 64% β 86% Down π: Atalanta: 66% β 17% Inter: 41% β 8% Manchester City: 89% β 61% Paris Saint-Germain: 79% β 57% Dortmund: 23% β 1%
14 days ago
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π Champions League β Top 8 Odds Here are the teams battling to reach the top 8 π Real Madrid β 86% Barcelona β 80% Manchester City β 61% Paris Saint-Germain β 57% AtlΓ©tico Madrid β 50% Tottenham Hotspur β 48% Chelsea β 35% Sporting CP β 33% Newcastle United β 24% Atalanta β 17% Inter β 8%
14 days ago
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π Champions League Title Race Odds Movers (after Matchday 7) Up π: Arsenal: 29% β 34% Liverpool: 6% β 8% Barcelona: 5% β 7% Down π: Paris Saint-Germain: 11% β 8% Manchester City: 11% β 7% Bayern Munich: 19% β 17% Inter: 4% β 3%
14 days ago
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π UEFA Champions League title odds Arsenal β 34% Bayern Munich β 17% Liverpool β 8% Paris Saint-Germain β 8% Manchester City β 7% Barcelona β 7% Real Madrid β 5% Inter β 3% Chelsea β 3% Newcastle United β 2%
14 days ago
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π Europe's Big 5 Title Race Odds Movers (after week of Jan 18) Up π: Real Madrid: 20% β 35% Inter: 77% β 81% Milan: 7% β 11% Arsenal: 90% β 93% AtlΓ©tico Madrid: 1% β 2% Down π: Barcelona: 79% β 63% Napoli: 11% β 5% Juventus: 3% β 0% Manchester City: 7% β 5%
15 days ago
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π Ligue 1 (France) title odds Paris Saint-Germain β 92% Lens β 8%
15 days ago
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π Serie A (Italy) title odds Inter β 81% Milan β 11% Napoli β 5% Roma β 3%
16 days ago
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π La Liga (Spain) title odds Barcelona β 63% Real Madrid β 35% AtlΓ©tico Madrid β 2%
16 days ago
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π Premier League (England) title odds Arsenal β 93% Manchester City β 5% Aston Villa β 2%
16 days ago
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π Europe's Big 5 Title Race Odds Movers (only Serie A had serious action this weekend) Up π: Napoli: 9% β 11% Roma: 1% β 3% Juventus: 1% β 3% Down π: Inter: 80% β 77% Milan: 8% β 7%
22 days ago
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π Serie A (Italy) title odds Inter β 77% Napoli β 11% Milan β 7% Juventus β 3% Roma β 3%
22 days ago
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π Europe's Big 5 Title Race Odds Movers Up π: Inter: 70% β 80% Arsenal: 90% β 91% Down π: Napoli: 15% β 9% Milan: 13% β 8% Manchester City: 8% β 7%
26 days ago
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π Serie A (Italy) title odds Inter β 80% Napoli β 9% Milan β 8% Juventus β 1% Roma β 1%
26 days ago
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π Premier League (England) title odds Arsenal β 91% Manchester City β 7% Aston Villa β 3%
26 days ago
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π Europe's Big 5 Title Race Movers (after week of Jan 3-4) Up π: Arsenal: 82% β 90% Barcelona: 76% β 78% Napoli: 13% β 15% Lens: 5% β 6% Inter: 69% β 70% Down π: Manchester City: 15% β 8% Roma: 3% β 1% Juventus: 3% β 1% AtlΓ©tico Madrid: 2% β 1% Marseille: 2% β 1% Real Madrid: 22% β 21%
29 days ago
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π Ligue 1 (France) title odds Paris S-G β 93% Lens β 6% Marseille β 1%
29 days ago
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π Serie A (Italy) title odds Inter β 70% Napoli β 15% Milan β 13% Roma β 1% Juventus β 1%
29 days ago
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π La Liga (Spain) title odds Barcelona β 78% Real Madrid β 21% AtlΓ©tico Madrid β 1%
29 days ago
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π Premier League (England) title odds Arsenal β 90% Manchester City β 8% Aston Villa β 2%
30 days ago
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π Premier League Title Race Odds Movers Up π: Arsenal: 71% β 82% Down π: Manchester City: 24% β 15% Aston Villa: 5% β 3%
about 1 month ago
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