The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 14.23% v PFC 8.87% * 3-yr: S&P 21.54% v PFC 7.95% * 1-yr: S&P 16.23% v PFC 8.64%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 F'cast: > FY26 ⬆️ $2 (+$130mil UGF) > FY27 ⬇️ $2 (-$72mil) > FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$36mil) #akleg

The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (even), mid (⬆️ $1) & long-term (⬇️ $1) v. SPRING25 F'cast (rev). 1/2

PFD Estimates| Monthly as information becomes available, we post the most recent projections of gross PFD levels over the current forecast period under 5 alternatives: statutory, POMV 50/50, POMV 33/67, POMV 25/75, and "Leftover." #akleg

Investment Charts| We publish the following five charts monthly after the APFC financial statements are posted. All are current through September 2025. #akleg 1/5

ICYMI. This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Will Typhoon Halong be the final straw that breaks the PFD, it's not just the Ds that are pushing spending without explaining who pays for it, and maybe MustRead's Jon Faulkner should just start over. #akleg buff.ly/jsA1Qx1

No Friday column this week; instead, some past #akleg columns| The claim by some that there is a conflict in the PF earnings statutes that justifies PFD cuts is a hugely disingenuous way of rationalizing law-breaking. We explained why here. buff.ly/4LInmQd

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 14.17% v PFC 8.87% * 3-yr: S&P 21.31% v PFC 7.95% * 1-yr: S&P 14.50% v PFC 8.64%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 F'cast: > FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$99mil UGF) > FY27 ⬇️ $2 (-$72mil) > FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$36mil) #akleg

The Thursday Charts| We publish two charts Thursdays. #akleg Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING25). W/31% of FY26 done, YTD avg (red) running -15kbd (-3%) v. F'cast. 1/2

Tariffs and PFD cuts are largely the same thing. They are both taxes by another name that have a highly disproportionate impact on middle and lower income families. #akleg

The Wednesday Chart| To help better understand the primary market for ANS, we look at the supply to USWC refiners each Wed: YTD 2025 avg USWC (approx % of pre (2019)- and post (2022)-COVID levels): > Crude demand: 86% & 95%; > Domestic share: 74% & 86%. #akleg

The irony ... #akleg

No Friday column this week; instead, some past #akleg columns| It was true four years ago; it is again now: "The most important question this election cycle is who – which Alaska families – the various candidates propose to pay for closing the gap." buff.ly/hjWIkld

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 14.41% v PFC 8.87% * 3-yr: S&P 21.53% v PFC 7.95% * 1-yr: S&P 15.06% v PFC 8.64%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 F'cast: > FY26 even (+$18mil UGF) > FY27 ⬇️ $4 (-$144mil) > FY28-32 even (avg annual $0mil) #akleg

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Will Typhoon Halong be the final straw that breaks the PFD, it's not just the Ds that are pushing spending without explaining who pays for it, and maybe MustRead's Jon Faulkner should just start over. #akleg buff.ly/jsA1Qx1

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Will Typhoon Halong be the final straw that breaks the PFD, it's not just the Ds that are pushing spending without explaining who pays for it, and maybe MustRead's Jon Faulkner should just start over. #akleg buff.ly/jsA1Qx1

No Friday column this week. Instead, some past #akleg columns: "So, what does 'no taxes' really mean? Since 2019 it has meant one thing – use a form of taxes (PFD cuts) that takes most from middle & lower income #AKfams, and has a larger adverse impact on the overall #AKecon." buff.ly/v3ZZCYW

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 14.36% v PFC 8.87% * 3-yr: S&P 22.48% v PFC 7.95% * 1-yr: S&P 14.84% v PFC 8.64%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 F'cast: > FY26 even (+$2mil UGF) > FY27 ⬇️ $4 (-$144mil) > FY28-32 even (avg annual $0mil) #akleg

This Wk's Top 3| Is this the final straw that breaks the PFD, it's not just Ds that propose spending without saying how they will pay for it & maybe Jon Faulkner just needs to start over. #akleg T'row, 6:05a on the Michael Dukes Show at buff.ly/PncdOiC

No Friday column this week. Instead, some past #akleg columns: Hammond had a plan for drawing a hard line under any future Alaska fiscal free fall. It could still work today as part of an overall fiscal fix. bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday...

No Friday column this week. Instead, some past #akleg columns: Hammond had a plan for drawing a hard line under any future Alaska fiscal free fall. It could still work today as part of an overall fiscal fix. buff.ly/GjcBtOL

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 13.85% v PFC 8.87% * 3-yr: S&P 21.91% v PFC 7.95% * 1-yr: S&P 14.08% v PFC 8.64%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 F'cast: > FY26 even (+$16mil UGF) > FY27 ⬇️ $4 (-$144mil) > FY28-32 even (avg annual $0mil) #akleg

The Monday Chart| To put Alaska's in-state gas prices in global context, once wkly we compare Enstar's current Gas Cost Adjustment v. global markers. 2025-26 Enstar price is 10% ⬇️ Asia, 187% ⬆️ L48. 5yr forward avg, Enstar 14% ⬆️ Asia, 181% ⬆️ L48. #akleg 1/2

ICYMI. This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Why Alaskans should focus on EIA's latest oil price forecasts, how the push for Ambler & other projects threatens the PFD & is Must Read's Jon Faulkner thinking through his argument. #akleg

No Friday column this week. Instead, some past #akleg columns: "PFD cuts fall harder than other alts also on MIDDLE income #AKfams. And by MIDDLE income, we mean the full range – lower middle, middle-middle and even upper middle ... sixty percent of Alaska households." buff.ly/DxzoIzp

Some try to rationalize the precipitous drop in production taxes over the next decade on increased spending. But that's a small part. What's really driving the drop is the significant rise in "GVR" volumes. #akleg

The Sunday Financial Charts| To help better understand the overall financial environment, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg 𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣: We follow two measures of inflation: 1/4

The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: 1 heading to (HIL) 1 ret'n from (CP) KR for maint #akleg * Deliveries month to date: 10.4 * Not in ANS service: 2 (CP maint.) * Asia: 0 * USWC: 8 (3 CP, 2 HIL, 2 XOM, 1 MPC) in runs

🤦 It's not just Ds. R's love to give away state money also. #WhoPays? "One potential solution is the Power Alaska’s Workforce Tax Credit Act. The bill allows private industry to CLAIM A CREDIT AGAINST STATE TAXES equal to qualifying expenditures ...."  buff.ly/44EztXa

The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $67, ahead of both Brent ($1.53) and Brent/WTI avg ($3.48). #akleg

ICYMI. This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Why Alaskans should focus on EIA's latest oil price forecasts, how the push for Ambler & other projects threatens the PFD & is Must Read's Jon Faulkner thinking through his argument. #akleg buff.ly/ILJaeqa

No Friday column this week. Instead, some past #akleg columns: "Reduce [income taxes] if you will; suspend it if you must. But for heaven’s sake, don’t repeal it or you’ll cut the one string connecting the citizen’s pocketbook to the government purse, and see state spending soar."

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 13.85% v PFC 8.87% * 3-yr: S&P 21.91% v PFC 7.95% * 1-yr: S&P 14.08% v PFC 8.64%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 F'cast: > FY26 even (+$14mil UGF) > FY27 ⬇️ $4 (-$144mil) > FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual $36mil) #akleg

The Saturday Charts| Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs v. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING25) F'cast. W/ 30% of FY26 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running ⬇️ 1% v Spring25 F'cast rev. Projected FY26 WAVG currently $65. #akleg 1/2

Whew. Is it any wonder Alaska has outmigration issues? (Alaska v US: Change in real median household income since 2015). The #akleg solution? Make it worse by using PFD cuts to fund govt.

The PFD is a share of Alaska's commonly-owned wealth intended to be distributed equally to its owners. The #akleg is increasingly diverting more and more of it to the benefit of those in the Top20%, #NonRez, #OilCos & other special interests.

The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg 1/6

ICYMI. This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Why Alaskans should focus on EIA's latest oil price forecasts, how the push for Ambler & other projects threatens the PFD & is Must Read's Jon Faulkner thinking through his argument. #akleg

"But that reveals a dirty little secret about Alaska oil – that some seek to use state tax policy to create private benefits for themselves and others in the industry." buff.ly/mIdbHHH

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 13.73% v PFC 8.87% * 3-yr: S&P 22.76% v PFC 7.95% * 1-yr: S&P 13.46% v PFC 8.64%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 F'cast: > FY26 even (-$4mil UGF) > FY27 ⬇️ $4 (-$144mil) > FY28-32 even (avg annual $0mil) #akleg

The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬇️ $2), mid (even) & long-term (⬇️ $1) v. SPRING25 F'cast (rev). 1/2

The Wednesday Chart| To help better understand the primary market for ANS, we look at the supply to USWC refiners each Wed: YTD 2025 avg USWC (approx % of pre (2019)- and post (2022)-COVID levels): > Crude demand: 86% & 95%; > Domestic share: 73% & 85%. #akleg

ICYMI. This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Why Alaskans should focus on EIA's latest oil price forecasts, how the push for Ambler & other projects threatens the PFD & is Must Read's Jon Faulkner thinking through his argument. #akleg buff.ly/ILJaeqa

ICYMI. This Week's Friday Column| The PFD was structured to put all Alaska families first in line to benefit from the state's oil wealth. PFD cuts are putting non-residents, oil companies & some Alaska subgroups first instead. #akleg buff.ly/14XRo1g