15 months after Assad’s fall, Syria’s transition is repeating the country’s oldest pattern: capture the state, exclude the rest. My take on what’s gone wrong and how to break the cycle. Grateful to @justsecurity.org Danae Askar & @bechamilton.bsky.social www.justsecurity.org/136468/urgen...

The design of #Syria’s new currency manifests a calculated attempt to engineer a depoliticized citizenry, reduced to mere subsistence. It signals a shift to "bare life"—a biological subject without political rights. A symbol of submission, not emancipation! #Syria_currency

The Syrian Constitutional Declaration entrenches hyper-presidentialism with weak institutional constraints. As shown by Stepan & Skach (1993), such constitutional designs after 1945 have been associated with fragile political stability and a higher susceptibility to military coups. #Syria

Rebranding a militia as "army" or warlord as "statesman" does not dissolve their ideological substrate. Instead, it creates a latent threat, cloaking radical agendas in state uniforms.This is not the domestication of lawless violence; it is the bureaucratization thereof. See #Homs attacks! #Syria

#Syria’s Transition: A Year of Lost Opportunity 1/9 🧵 Dangerous, empirically false misconceptions are circulating in DC regarding Syria’s "transition." Before analyzing the facts, we need to kill two bad arguments:

As many residents of #Homs, including loved ones, have experienced firsthand, the current sectarian tensions in the city are not the result of a single isolated horrific crime. Rather, they are rooted in dynamics that have been building for decades and are now intensifying. 1/3

My new piece explores the recent escalation in Syria and the role of the incoming U.S. administration. Feedback is greatly appreciated! Much appreciation to @justsecurity.org team for their support.