The "Capacity" left in this bull market is dwindling. "Both" S&P 500 Price and EPS are simultaneously more extremely above trendline than at any time since WWII. This suggests below average returns in the coming year. See my full report at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Thanks to Jack Forehand (@practicalquant)and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau) from the Excess Return Podcast for having me back this week for an update on the economy and the financial markets. Please take a look & listen! paulsenperspectives.substack.com www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJil...

It took 15 years, but the relative price of S&P 500 Old Era stocks has finally broken above its downward trendline. Does this breakout signal a “change in leadership” from New Era to Old Era stocks? See this and more in my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Trading opens today with the S&P 500 Old Era stocks OUTPACING S&P 500 New Era stocks for the first time during the contemporary bull market over any trailing one-year period. Despite AI, is stock market leadership being relinquished by New Era stocks? Changes! PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com

Has the U.S. stock market had new leadership for the last eight months? The contemporary bull market can already be described as a story of two distinct bulls – New Era until last Fall and Broader Market Plays since. See my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

For all the excitement since the March 30th AI surge, New Era continues to lose its Mojo! See the charts below! New Era stocks no longer look like strong leaders, rather stocks relinquishing leadership. paulsenperspectives.substack.com

During this bull market, investors' risk aversion has faded from their portfolios. The relative performance of low/high beta stocks has declined to its lowest post-war quintile suggesting too much investor optimism - where major market tops occur. See my latest at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Despite exciting innovations, US real GDP growth unfortunately appears poised to return to the "Demographic Dungeon" of sluggish activity in the coming years as labor force growth normalizes near post-war lows. See my full report on implications at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Investor bullishness is primarily tied to evidence of spectacular EPS momentum. However, EPS Mo has often peaked just before past bear markets or serious corrections. My latest note discusses a few cautionary tales about today's stock market. paulsenperspectives.substack.com

The S&P 500 Stock Price Index relative to its post-WWII trendline has surged to one of its highest excess levels since WWII. In April 2025, it was at only 25% but now trades 60% above trendline, higher than anything but the dotcom era. See my latest post at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Recently, the unemployment rate has been rising, and the real wage rate has declined. That is, MISERY on MAIN has increased. As shown by the chart below, Misery on Main has often resulted in a period of Misery on Wall? For my latest thinking see: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

My latest report compares the current RR Frontier between new & old era S&P 500 stocks. Old era provides much greater diversification today and new era greater returns compared to the 1990's bull market suggesting a higher allocation toward old era stocks. See paulsenperspectives.substack.com

As demonstrated below, bond yields are established by a long-term, slow-moving average of past inflation rates. If CPI inflation averages less than 3.75% during the next 4 years, bond yields are poised to "trend lower" for the first time since 2019! See my latest: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Despite a better-than-expected jobs report last Friday, the YOY% gain in US jobs remains essentially ZERO. And, as shown below, recent economic policy tightening is poised to weaken US growth momentum. See my latest report for what this may imply for investors. paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Thanks to Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for having me back this week for an update on the economy and the financial markets. Please take a look & listen! paulsenperspectives.substack.com youtube.com/watch?v=-cGT...

The recent new era stock market rally since March 30th is becoming riskier. Old era company profits are not rising, and the rally is being increasing led by riskier small cap and unprofitable tech companies. Sustainable? See my latest report at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Did Billionaires sell their technology holdings “before” the recent AI-led surge in the stock market as suggested by the chart below? Will the ultra-rich soon be buying AI to catch-up or do Billionaires know something the rest of us don't? See my latest at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Bond yields are tied closely to the stock-bond correlation. Should the Iran conflict soon end, this correlation should turn more positive (reflecting less worry about inflation and more worry about recession) allowing Fed cuts & bond yields to decline. See my latest paulsenperspectives.substack.com

As peace nears, it may be good to recall the old adage "buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets". As the charts below demonstrate, every major oil price spike since 1970 has caused stock market turbulence "after" oil prices peak. See my free report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

New era stocks are simply following the new era economy. But challenges are building for new era stocks. New era growth has recently been extreme, and the lagged impact of economic policy has become negative for new era pursuits. See my latest at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

A concern about this bull market being led so heavily by new era plays is nobody understands what causes new era recessions. New era seems recession proof. However, new era must have a Kryptonite? See my latest report for a few candidates at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

The new/old era S&P 500 correlation has recently collapsed suggesting that a period of new era sector stock price underperformance may be nearing. Investor bullishness is rising but the rally may not be sustainable. See my latest post at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

The most important event for investors during the balance of 2026 may be a shift in the country's cultural mindset from fighting inflation toward restoring real economic growth. For all the details, see my latest post highlighted by the charts below @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Most seem confident the US Jobs market is stabilizing, but this chart certainly doesn't suggest all is well on Main Street! No wonder consumer confidence is at record low for May. Are Profits without jobs okay? Is it sustainable? paulsenperspectives.substack.com

My latest missive speaks to ongoing and not widely noticed tech stock challenges. Maybe they haven't regained leadership? A couple concerns shown below. Tech still hasn't regained Oct. relative highs and unprofitable tech is leading. For more concerns, see paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Thanks to Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for having me back earlier this week for an update on the economy and the financial markets. Please take a look! paulsenperspectives.substack.com www.youtube.com/watch?v=laGb...

In the last 6 quarters, new era real spending is rising at a robust 7.9% annualized pace, but old era growth (comprising 87% of total real GDP!) has slowed to an unacceptably lethargic 1.1% pace. The economy is 'BustBooming'! For details see my latest at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

As the chart below shows, unlike the 1970s, inflation today is caused by a temporary supply-side restriction not by too much aggregate demand. Contractionary policies will not bring inflation down but only further weaken an already compromised US demand. See paulsenperspectives.substack.com

First quarter real GDP expected tomorrow to be 2.2%. But several indicators suggesting it could be much weaker including GDPnow estimate near 1.24%, US Econ Surprises decaying, Yield Curve flattening, and Cyclical stocks underperforming. Stay Tuned?!? PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com

As shown by the charts below, with an 18-month lag, the yield curve is suggesting a substantial change in relative EPS momentum from new era sectors to broader market sectors during the coming 18 months. For all the details see my latest post at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

My latest post examines how much capacity is left in this bull market. As shown below, the economy still has considerable profit capacity and the ability to wake animal spirits by stoking confidence. For other untapped bull market supports see my report: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

My latest post suggests current inflation worries are likely to be overcome by real growth fears, bringing much greater policy accommodation, resulting in the next leg of this bull market to be led by BROAD market plays rather than by new era stocks. See paulsenperspectives.substack.com

As peace nears, economic slowdown/recession fears emerge: GDP & PCE now at only 1.3% & 1.07%, Citi US surprise index weakening & SF Fed econ news sentiment collapsed. Next up is 2yr Treas Yield to fall below FFs rate -- easing support coming for stocks! See my work paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Corporate Profits rose at a 26.3% average annualized pace in the 4thQ despite real GDP growth and job creation of only 0.5%. Is a profitable but jobless expansion sustainable or is a reckoning coming? See my latest post at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

My latest post discusses what the economy may look like should the Iran hostilities soon be resolved. I suspect inflation will prove mild but real economic growth may take a hit. For all the details see paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Monday, I had the great pleasure of again joining @practicalquant and @jjcarbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for another monthly edition. Click the Youtube link below. Thanks for taking the time to listen in. paulsenperspectives.substack.com www.youtube.com/watch?v=myPa...

The Fed needs to start easing again! Inflation will rise but will likely prove transitory. However, as demonstrated below, US real economic activity is collapsing fast and may prove much more difficult to revive. Sign up for my regular posts at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Why the stock market has held up better in this crisis than widely feared and how it ultimately responds once hostilities are resolved, may depend primarily on the strength of real corporate investment per job. See my latest report for all the details at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

My recent post speaks to the oddity of a plethora (I highlight 15 in total) of bullish signals during the latest crisis. A couple are shown below. For what this may mean, see my full report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

As shown below, the Walmart Recession Signal (WRS) currently warns of a potential recession or at least a significant economic slowdown. I haven’t published the WRS for some time and “Walmart Worries” just keep multiplying. For the details see my latest @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

It's rather amazing how much 'broader market plays' have regained leadership in the last two weeks despite ongoing Iranian hostilities. Is this a sign that new era stocks will not regain leadership even after this crisis is resolved. See my latest note @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Compared to the previous 8 oil-based inflationary episodes in the last 40 years, this one has suffered a relatively small rise in oil prices and has a backdrop of much weaker real economic growth than in the past. See my latest @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

As market crisis fears diminsh a bit, leadership within the US stock market is quickly returning to 'broader market plays' rather than the old leadership of new era stocks. paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Thanks to Sara Eisen and Michael Santoli for having me on your show today, CNBC's Squawk on the Street! Always a privilege and pleasure getting to join the conversation. www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...

Nice visit this morning at the open with Alex Coffey at the Schwab Network. Thanks for having me on your show! img-static.ivoox.com/index.php?w=...

Prior to 2000, US productivity gains were associated with solid job gains. However, as shown in the chart below, since the dotcom top, productivity cycles and the job market have become inversely correlated. See my latest report about US Productivity for free @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

WTI Oil prices have surged by almost 70% but the 10-year bond yield has remained relatively chill (4.3% vs. 4.17%) since year end. As shown below, oil prices are similar to a tax hike likely to lower bond yields in the coming year. See my latest post at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Does the rise in HH equity allocations and the mkt cap/GDP ratio represent irrational exuberance or are they simply a rational assessment of a lower US recession frequency? Perhaps their higher new normals reflect a lower recession incidence. Details at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

US Recession risk has collapsed in recent years, and the 60/40 portfolio is still the holy grail benchmark for portfolio allocations. If recession risk is less, then the 'optimal' asset mix towards equities probably needs to rise. See my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

One daily estimate of CPI inflation, Truflation, is showing only a modest advance so far to the recent surge in oil prices. This is also consistent with a rather muted response from the 10yr bond yield which at 4.23% is the same as it was in mid-Jan. when oil was below $60. Hmmm?