A concern about this bull market being led so heavily by new era plays is nobody understands what causes new era recessions. New era seems recession proof. However, new era must have a Kryptonite? See my latest report for a few candidates at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

The new/old era S&P 500 correlation has recently collapsed suggesting that a period of new era sector stock price underperformance may be nearing. Investor bullishness is rising but the rally may not be sustainable. See my latest post at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

The most important event for investors during the balance of 2026 may be a shift in the country's cultural mindset from fighting inflation toward restoring real economic growth. For all the details, see my latest post highlighted by the charts below @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Most seem confident the US Jobs market is stabilizing, but this chart certainly doesn't suggest all is well on Main Street! No wonder consumer confidence is at record low for May. Are Profits without jobs okay? Is it sustainable? paulsenperspectives.substack.com

My latest missive speaks to ongoing and not widely noticed tech stock challenges. Maybe they haven't regained leadership? A couple concerns shown below. Tech still hasn't regained Oct. relative highs and unprofitable tech is leading. For more concerns, see paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Thanks to Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for having me back earlier this week for an update on the economy and the financial markets. Please take a look! paulsenperspectives.substack.com www.youtube.com/watch?v=laGb...

In the last 6 quarters, new era real spending is rising at a robust 7.9% annualized pace, but old era growth (comprising 87% of total real GDP!) has slowed to an unacceptably lethargic 1.1% pace. The economy is 'BustBooming'! For details see my latest at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

As the chart below shows, unlike the 1970s, inflation today is caused by a temporary supply-side restriction not by too much aggregate demand. Contractionary policies will not bring inflation down but only further weaken an already compromised US demand. See paulsenperspectives.substack.com

First quarter real GDP expected tomorrow to be 2.2%. But several indicators suggesting it could be much weaker including GDPnow estimate near 1.24%, US Econ Surprises decaying, Yield Curve flattening, and Cyclical stocks underperforming. Stay Tuned?!? PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com

As shown by the charts below, with an 18-month lag, the yield curve is suggesting a substantial change in relative EPS momentum from new era sectors to broader market sectors during the coming 18 months. For all the details see my latest post at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

My latest post examines how much capacity is left in this bull market. As shown below, the economy still has considerable profit capacity and the ability to wake animal spirits by stoking confidence. For other untapped bull market supports see my report: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

My latest post suggests current inflation worries are likely to be overcome by real growth fears, bringing much greater policy accommodation, resulting in the next leg of this bull market to be led by BROAD market plays rather than by new era stocks. See paulsenperspectives.substack.com

As peace nears, economic slowdown/recession fears emerge: GDP & PCE now at only 1.3% & 1.07%, Citi US surprise index weakening & SF Fed econ news sentiment collapsed. Next up is 2yr Treas Yield to fall below FFs rate -- easing support coming for stocks! See my work paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Corporate Profits rose at a 26.3% average annualized pace in the 4thQ despite real GDP growth and job creation of only 0.5%. Is a profitable but jobless expansion sustainable or is a reckoning coming? See my latest post at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

My latest post discusses what the economy may look like should the Iran hostilities soon be resolved. I suspect inflation will prove mild but real economic growth may take a hit. For all the details see paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Monday, I had the great pleasure of again joining @practicalquant and @jjcarbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for another monthly edition. Click the Youtube link below. Thanks for taking the time to listen in. paulsenperspectives.substack.com www.youtube.com/watch?v=myPa...

The Fed needs to start easing again! Inflation will rise but will likely prove transitory. However, as demonstrated below, US real economic activity is collapsing fast and may prove much more difficult to revive. Sign up for my regular posts at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Why the stock market has held up better in this crisis than widely feared and how it ultimately responds once hostilities are resolved, may depend primarily on the strength of real corporate investment per job. See my latest report for all the details at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

My recent post speaks to the oddity of a plethora (I highlight 15 in total) of bullish signals during the latest crisis. A couple are shown below. For what this may mean, see my full report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

As shown below, the Walmart Recession Signal (WRS) currently warns of a potential recession or at least a significant economic slowdown. I haven’t published the WRS for some time and “Walmart Worries” just keep multiplying. For the details see my latest @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

It's rather amazing how much 'broader market plays' have regained leadership in the last two weeks despite ongoing Iranian hostilities. Is this a sign that new era stocks will not regain leadership even after this crisis is resolved. See my latest note @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Compared to the previous 8 oil-based inflationary episodes in the last 40 years, this one has suffered a relatively small rise in oil prices and has a backdrop of much weaker real economic growth than in the past. See my latest @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

As market crisis fears diminsh a bit, leadership within the US stock market is quickly returning to 'broader market plays' rather than the old leadership of new era stocks. paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Thanks to Sara Eisen and Michael Santoli for having me on your show today, CNBC's Squawk on the Street! Always a privilege and pleasure getting to join the conversation. www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...

Nice visit this morning at the open with Alex Coffey at the Schwab Network. Thanks for having me on your show! img-static.ivoox.com/index.php?w=...

Prior to 2000, US productivity gains were associated with solid job gains. However, as shown in the chart below, since the dotcom top, productivity cycles and the job market have become inversely correlated. See my latest report about US Productivity for free @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

WTI Oil prices have surged by almost 70% but the 10-year bond yield has remained relatively chill (4.3% vs. 4.17%) since year end. As shown below, oil prices are similar to a tax hike likely to lower bond yields in the coming year. See my latest post at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Does the rise in HH equity allocations and the mkt cap/GDP ratio represent irrational exuberance or are they simply a rational assessment of a lower US recession frequency? Perhaps their higher new normals reflect a lower recession incidence. Details at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

US Recession risk has collapsed in recent years, and the 60/40 portfolio is still the holy grail benchmark for portfolio allocations. If recession risk is less, then the 'optimal' asset mix towards equities probably needs to rise. See my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

One daily estimate of CPI inflation, Truflation, is showing only a modest advance so far to the recent surge in oil prices. This is also consistent with a rather muted response from the 10yr bond yield which at 4.23% is the same as it was in mid-Jan. when oil was below $60. Hmmm?

My latest post comments on the crisis adjustment by investors. Several factors are highlighted including the diminished impact of oil prices in the US, eg, Bond yields have been nonplussed by rising oil prices. For all the details, please see my latest missive at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Friday, I had the great pleasure of again joining Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau at Excess Return Podcast for another monthly edition. Click the Youtube link below. Thanks for taking the time to listen in. paulsenperspectives.substack.com youtu.be/aZbJ7vH2Fts

I had the great pleasure of joining @michaelsantoli and @MelissaLeeCNBC on @CNBCOvertime Friday to discuss the Fed and economic growth. Thanks! Paulsenperspectives.Substack.com www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...

US real private GDP rose by 2.3% in 2025, but excluding new era investment, the other 89% of real private spending rose by only 1% with no job creation. The 'larger' old era economy needs policy support! See my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Since 1990, stock market leadership has regularly toggled between new era and broader market stocks. As economic policy accommodation finally improves (eg YC steepens), is leadership again toggling back toward broader market plays? See my latest post at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Thanks to Paul LaMonica & Barrons for the chance to be interviewed for this weekend's Magazine! Much appreciated. AI and Tech Stocks Are in Trouble. Look to These Other Sectors, Says This Veteran Strategist. barrons.com/articles/ai-... via @BarronsOnline

Consumer sentiment among Independents has usually moved in the same direction as Republican sentiment. But since late-2024, Republican sentiment has risen while sentiment among Independents has soured. Have Repubs lost Indeps? See my free post at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Real GDP growth is less than it averaged during the period after the GFC, inflation is just slightly higher, and job growth is significantly worse. Why is the real 2-year yield still 1.88% HIGHER than it averaged then? See my post "Normal Bond Yields" @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

My latest post introduces a relative Poor/Rich Sentiment Indicator suggesting the S&P 500 may break out of its recent range to the high side. When the Rich lose faith faster than the Poor, it's been a good time to buy stocks. For all the details go to paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Economic policy is finally turning more supportive for the economy and promoting a revival in Main Street confidence. See my latest post on, despite current turmoil, why stock investors shouldn't sell a confidence revival. paulsenperspectivs.substack.com

I had the great privilege and pleasure of joining @carlquintanilla, @michaelsantoli, & @CourtReagan on CNBC @SquawkStreet this morning for a conversation about the economy and the financial markets. Thanks so much for having me! paulsenperspectives.substack.com www.youtube.com/watch?v=Quja...

Profits have so far remained healthy during this bull run. But some indicators now suggest profit growth could disappoint expectations yet this year. See my latest report which highlights a few such warning signs like the couple shown below. paulsenperspectives.substack.com

The passing of the baton was fumbled in 2000 during the dotcom bull market, but here in 2026, the baton seems to be passing more smoothly allowing broader market plays to run the next leg while avoiding a total collapse in new era stocks. See my latest at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Yesterday, I had the great pleasure of again joining @practicalquant and @jjcarbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for another monthly discussion. Click the Youtube link below. Thanks for taking the time to watch the video. paulsenperspectives.substack.com www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxKF...

Bond Volatility is recently less than 90% of the time since 1990 while stock Vol has remained about average. Stock/bond relative vol is now top quintile which shown by the charts below has been very good for future stock market returns. See my latest report at: PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com

See my latest report "A Growth Glitch?" at paulsenperspectives.substack.com for a few indicators like the ones highlighted below suggesting real U.S. economic growth may be headed for a period of disappointment. This may cause some volatility but also bring greater policy accommodation.

Conditions in the US job market remain 'recession-like'. The Unemployment Rate has risen by 1% and annual job growth is only 0.37%. However, when job conditions are this feeble, the stock market has typically done well. See the charts below and my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Will JOBS Rule in 2026? When job creation flatlines, hope fades, and policy officials have no choice but to become more accommodative. With NFP YOY slowing to only 0.37% and average unemployment lasting almost 25 weeks, policies need to ease. See my latest post @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Although the US has not had a recession since 2020, "fear" of recession has remained high throughout this bull market. Recession risk is finally easing which could significantly alter stock market leadership. See my latest report for sectors set to benefit @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

How long before most investors decide to lighten up "LOSERS" like New Era stocks? Smalls win and Tech loses for the last 18 Months! Nearly everyone is overweighted Tech and wonder if its finally time to reduce bets. See my work @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com