The Crime Forecast
@crimeforecast.bsky.social
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Crime trend data, analysis, and reporting
The mass shooting in Leland, Mississippi was an unpredictable tragedy. Well, sort of.
19 days ago
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@jamellebouie.net
With crime trends becoming relevant again, I wanted to direct you to an explanation of the causes of the decline, partially based on my book on the spike in murders (NYU Press).
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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Explaining the Crime Decline
The definitive and authoritative account
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/explaining-the-crime-decline?r=4v7etj&utm_medium=ios
3 months ago
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@majorityreport.bsky.social
Can someone get this in front of Sam? The lead and crime hypothesis is not the best explanation of crime trends:
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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The Exaggerated Lead/Crime Hypothesis
Some impact? Probably. But not enough to write home (or a book) about
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-exaggerated-leadcrime-hypothesis?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
3 months ago
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The '90s called and wants its explanation of the crime decline back:
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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The Exaggerated Lead/Crime Hypothesis
Some impact? Probably. But not enough to write home (or a book) about
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-exaggerated-leadcrime-hypothesis?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
3 months ago
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Which generation committed crime at the higest rate? (Hint: it is not Gen Z)
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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The Smartphone-Induced Crime Decline
Gen Z made crime rates 'crash out'
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-smartphone-induced-crime-decline?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
3 months ago
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3 months ago
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When will the homicide decline come to Murder Valley?
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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An Update from Murder Valley
Yep, still violent
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/an-update-from-murder-valley?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
3 months ago
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The Smartphone was not all bad...
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James Tuttle (@crimeforecast)
The impact of the Smartphone was not all badā¦
https://substack.com/@crimeforecast/note/c-137622292?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=4v7etj
3 months ago
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For everyone who says "no one really knows why crime rates are declining..."
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Explaining the Crime Decline
The definitive and authoritative account
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/explaining-the-crime-decline?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
3 months ago
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Seattle is the poster child for "woke" polices and out of control rates of violent crime. Or is it?
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Explaining Seattle's Homicide Trends
The political narratives were wrong, but does it matter?
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/explaining-seattles-homicide-trends?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
4 months ago
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Anyone else getting a ton of ads from the FBI? I wonder if they are having trouble recruitingā¦
4 months ago
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Over the past decade, more than 200,000 people have been murdered in the United States.
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The Victims of the Homicide Epidemic
The Chapter of 'Crime Wave' I Never Wrote
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-victims-of-the-homicide-epidemic?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
4 months ago
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Causing the homicide rate to decline is hard. Taking credit is easy.
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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Future Files: A 2026 Midterm Election Prediction (of sorts)
The Politics of the Homicide Decline
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/future-files-a-2026-midterm-election?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
5 months ago
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Itās me. Hi. Iām the expert, itās me.
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Expert questions city's strategy, cites drug and gun trends as key to homicide decrease
BALTIMORE — As Baltimore experiences a significant decline in homicides, city officials are attributing the decrease to their crime-fighting strategies. Mayor B
https://foxbaltimore.com/news/city-in-crisis/baltimore-homicide-decline-gun-violence-reduction-strategy-crime-trends-guns-drugs-mayor-brandon-scott
6 months ago
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America is in decline.
crimeforecast.substack.com/p/how-americ...
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How American Decline Caused a Crime Wave
America is in decline.
https://crimeforecast.substack.com/p/how-american-decline-caused-a-crime?r=4v7etj
6 months ago
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The rise and fall of the homicide epidemic.
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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Before and After the 2020 Homicide Spike
In 2020, the homicide rate spiked by its largest margin in recorded history.
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/before-and-after-the-2020-homicide?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
7 months ago
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Preorder your own copy
nyupress.org/978147983116...
8 months ago
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Did rising inflation contribute to a crime wave?
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Rising Inflation and Crime
Did spiking rates of inflation contribute to a crime wave?
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/rising-inflation-and-crime?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
8 months ago
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Homicide concentration has been declining for decades - possibly coming to a neighborhood near you.
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The Declining Concentration of Homicide
Homicide offending has continued to spread
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-declining-concentration-of-homicide?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
9 months ago
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Kids These Days - less likely to commit burglary, but still likely to commit a murder
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Kids These Days
Teenage criminal offending is on the decline...except for murder
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/kids-these-days?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
9 months ago
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American homicides were once concentrated in a few coastal cities. Today, murders are becoming more common in the 'Heartland.'
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America's Murder Migration
Homicides were once heavily concentrated in a few coastal cities. Since the mid-2010s, homicide offending has become more common in the 'Heartland.'
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/americas-murder-migration?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
9 months ago
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Welcome to āMurder Valleyā - where the equivalent of a nation with the world's fifth highest homicide rate is found right here in the USA!
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Welcome to āMurder Valleyā
If it were its own nation, Murder Valley would rank 5th in homicide rate per capita
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/welcome-to-murder-valley?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
10 months ago
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Americaās murder capital is not where you think.
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The Ten Most Homicidal Counties
Americaās āMurder Capitalā might not be where you think.
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-ten-most-homicidal-counties?r=4v7etj&utm_medium=ios
10 months ago
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As the homicide rate declines, have you wondered how it got so high in the first place? Crime trends of the 1990s are the key to understanding recent murder rates.
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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The 1990s Part 2, Electric Boogaloo
How the Fentanyl Epidemic Mirrors the Crack Cocaine Crisis and Its Impact on Murder Trends
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-1990s-part-2-electric-boogaloo?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
10 months ago
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The rise and decline of the homicide epidemic came to the Midwest first. Now, other regions are catching up.
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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The Rise and Decline of Murder in the Midwest
The recent homicide spike differed across regions. The decline has as well.
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-rise-and-decline-of-murder-in?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
11 months ago
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Homicide is declining by record margins in 2024
crimeforecast.substack.com/p/the-homici...
11 months ago
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Is the murder rate about to decline to historical lows?
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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The Coming Murder Rate Crash?
The murder rate has been defying historical patterns for nearly a decade. Will we see a "correction" in the murder rate in the coming years?
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-coming-murder-rate-crash?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
11 months ago
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