The Crime Forecast
@crimeforecast.bsky.social
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Crime trend data, analysis, and reporting
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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The Rise and Decline of Homicide, 2015-2025
An Author's Autopsy of the 'Homicide Epidemic'
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-rise-and-decline-of-homicide?r=4v7etj&utm_medium=ios
27 days ago
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open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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The Economy is Terrible. Why Aren't More People Stealing Stuff?
Consumer sentiment continues to decline, and yet, so does the crime rate
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-economy-is-terrible-why-arent?r=4v7etj&utm_medium=ios
about 1 month ago
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When a story sounds too good to be true, you should always checkā¦
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No, the Homicide Rate is Not at a 125 Year Low
tl;dr: Homicide/murder rates are falling and nearing historical lows, but have not declined quite as much as you have been lead to believe.
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/no-the-homicide-rate-is-not-at-a?r=4v7etj&utm_medium=ios
2 months ago
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The FBI is missing more than half of Mississippiās murders.
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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Mississippi's Missing Murders
Or: When imputing data goes wrong.
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/mississippis-missing-murders?r=4v7etj&utm_medium=ios
2 months ago
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Is Violent Crime an 'Urban' Problem?
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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Is Violent Crime an 'Urban' Problem?
Violence has long been a disproportionately ābig cityā problem in the United States; prepare for a future where this is no longer the case
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/is-violent-crime-an-urban-problem?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
3 months ago
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Itās easier to claim credit for the crime decline when you obscure its causes.
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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Everyone is Wrong about the Crime Decline
As people strain their arms to pat themselves on the back, no one really seems to fully comprehend the reasons for the crime decline
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/everyone-is-wrong-about-the-crime?r=4v7etj&utm_medium=ios
3 months ago
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Will the murder decline continue?
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The 2026 Murder Forecast
Preliminary data suggests 2025 will set historic lows; this trend will continue in 2026
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-2026-murder-forecast?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
5 months ago
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The mass shooting in Leland, Mississippi was an unpredictable tragedy. Well, sort of.
7 months ago
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@jamellebouie.net
With crime trends becoming relevant again, I wanted to direct you to an explanation of the causes of the decline, partially based on my book on the spike in murders (NYU Press).
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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Explaining the Crime Decline
The definitive and authoritative account
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/explaining-the-crime-decline?r=4v7etj&utm_medium=ios
10 months ago
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@majorityreport.bsky.social
Can someone get this in front of Sam? The lead and crime hypothesis is not the best explanation of crime trends:
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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The Exaggerated Lead/Crime Hypothesis
Some impact? Probably. But not enough to write home (or a book) about
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-exaggerated-leadcrime-hypothesis?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
10 months ago
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The '90s called and wants its explanation of the crime decline back:
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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The Exaggerated Lead/Crime Hypothesis
Some impact? Probably. But not enough to write home (or a book) about
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-exaggerated-leadcrime-hypothesis?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
10 months ago
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Which generation committed crime at the higest rate? (Hint: it is not Gen Z)
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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The Smartphone-Induced Crime Decline
Gen Z made crime rates 'crash out'
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-smartphone-induced-crime-decline?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
10 months ago
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10 months ago
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When will the homicide decline come to Murder Valley?
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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An Update from Murder Valley
Yep, still violent
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/an-update-from-murder-valley?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
10 months ago
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The Smartphone was not all bad...
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James Tuttle (@crimeforecast)
The impact of the Smartphone was not all badā¦
https://substack.com/@crimeforecast/note/c-137622292?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=4v7etj
10 months ago
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For everyone who says "no one really knows why crime rates are declining..."
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Explaining the Crime Decline
The definitive and authoritative account
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/explaining-the-crime-decline?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
10 months ago
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Seattle is the poster child for "woke" polices and out of control rates of violent crime. Or is it?
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Explaining Seattle's Homicide Trends
The political narratives were wrong, but does it matter?
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/explaining-seattles-homicide-trends?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
10 months ago
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Anyone else getting a ton of ads from the FBI? I wonder if they are having trouble recruitingā¦
10 months ago
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Over the past decade, more than 200,000 people have been murdered in the United States.
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The Victims of the Homicide Epidemic
The Chapter of 'Crime Wave' I Never Wrote
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-victims-of-the-homicide-epidemic?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
11 months ago
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Causing the homicide rate to decline is hard. Taking credit is easy.
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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Future Files: A 2026 Midterm Election Prediction (of sorts)
The Politics of the Homicide Decline
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/future-files-a-2026-midterm-election?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
12 months ago
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Itās me. Hi. Iām the expert, itās me.
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Expert questions city's strategy, cites drug and gun trends as key to homicide decrease
BALTIMORE — As Baltimore experiences a significant decline in homicides, city officials are attributing the decrease to their crime-fighting strategies. Mayor B
https://foxbaltimore.com/news/city-in-crisis/baltimore-homicide-decline-gun-violence-reduction-strategy-crime-trends-guns-drugs-mayor-brandon-scott
about 1 year ago
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America is in decline.
crimeforecast.substack.com/p/how-americ...
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How American Decline Caused a Crime Wave
America is in decline.
https://crimeforecast.substack.com/p/how-american-decline-caused-a-crime?r=4v7etj
about 1 year ago
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The rise and fall of the homicide epidemic.
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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Before and After the 2020 Homicide Spike
In 2020, the homicide rate spiked by its largest margin in recorded history.
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/before-and-after-the-2020-homicide?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
about 1 year ago
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Preorder your own copy
nyupress.org/978147983116...
about 1 year ago
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Did rising inflation contribute to a crime wave?
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Rising Inflation and Crime
Did spiking rates of inflation contribute to a crime wave?
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/rising-inflation-and-crime?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
about 1 year ago
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Homicide concentration has been declining for decades - possibly coming to a neighborhood near you.
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The Declining Concentration of Homicide
Homicide offending has continued to spread
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-declining-concentration-of-homicide?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
over 1 year ago
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Kids These Days - less likely to commit burglary, but still likely to commit a murder
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Kids These Days
Teenage criminal offending is on the decline...except for murder
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/kids-these-days?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
over 1 year ago
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American homicides were once concentrated in a few coastal cities. Today, murders are becoming more common in the 'Heartland.'
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America's Murder Migration
Homicides were once heavily concentrated in a few coastal cities. Since the mid-2010s, homicide offending has become more common in the 'Heartland.'
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/americas-murder-migration?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
over 1 year ago
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Welcome to āMurder Valleyā - where the equivalent of a nation with the world's fifth highest homicide rate is found right here in the USA!
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Welcome to āMurder Valleyā
If it were its own nation, Murder Valley would rank 5th in homicide rate per capita
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/welcome-to-murder-valley?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
over 1 year ago
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Americaās murder capital is not where you think.
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The Ten Most Homicidal Counties
Americaās āMurder Capitalā might not be where you think.
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-ten-most-homicidal-counties?r=4v7etj&utm_medium=ios
over 1 year ago
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As the homicide rate declines, have you wondered how it got so high in the first place? Crime trends of the 1990s are the key to understanding recent murder rates.
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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The 1990s Part 2, Electric Boogaloo
How the Fentanyl Epidemic Mirrors the Crack Cocaine Crisis and Its Impact on Murder Trends
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-1990s-part-2-electric-boogaloo?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
over 1 year ago
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The rise and decline of the homicide epidemic came to the Midwest first. Now, other regions are catching up.
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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The Rise and Decline of Murder in the Midwest
The recent homicide spike differed across regions. The decline has as well.
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-rise-and-decline-of-murder-in?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
over 1 year ago
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Homicide is declining by record margins in 2024
crimeforecast.substack.com/p/the-homici...
over 1 year ago
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Is the murder rate about to decline to historical lows?
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...
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The Coming Murder Rate Crash?
The murder rate has been defying historical patterns for nearly a decade. Will we see a "correction" in the murder rate in the coming years?
https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-coming-murder-rate-crash?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
over 1 year ago
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