Tesla is expected to release its Q3 2025 production and delivery numbers tomorrow. When markets are open, as they will be tomorrow, the numbers are released at around 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time.

Hi everyone, here are the final Tesla delivery estimates for Q3 2025. For reference, deliveries were 462,890 units in Q3 2024. • My estimate: 481,000 • Analyst consensus: 443,079 (from Tesla’s survey of 25 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on Sep 26)

Hi everyone. Here’s my detailed calculation for Tesla's Q2 2025 earnings: Non-GAAP EPS: • My Estimate: $0.42 The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. The actual numbers will be released in a few hours.

1/2 Hi everyone. The chart shows Model Y sales prices in the US based on DMV data. Each dot represents a vehicle, and each color shows a different trim level. The most interesting part is that some Performance versions (shown in red) were so heavily discounted at the end of Q4 2024 and ...

Hi everyone. The chart shows actual Tesla sales in Europe, based on vehicle registration data from 25 countries. In Q2 2025, Tesla sold 55,924 units, down 29% year-over-year from 78,417 units in Q2 2024. Tesla has been struggling with brand image issues caused by political controversy.

Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” will eliminate Tesla’s US regulatory credits, also known as ZEV credits. Under the current system, automakers failing to meet zero-emission vehicle quotas must either pay a fine or purchase credits from companies like Tesla, which generate excess credits. 1/2

The table on the left shows my error rate. The one on the right shows the analyst consensus. My error rate is still lower than the consensus, but the gap is narrowing. I need more accurate results going forward, which means understanding what went wrong and finding ways to improve it.

For maximum transparency, here’s my delivery error rate versus the analyst consensus (based on Tesla’s survey, also known as the company-compiled consensus) over the past 16 quarters. Today’s result was my largest miss in the last four years.

Tesla deliveries were down by 50,129 units in Q1 and 59,834 units in Q2 2025 year-over-year. Q3 will also be challenging, as last year’s Q3 was strong with 462,890 units delivered. However, Tesla may soon launch a stripped-down Model Y, which it hopes will improve sales.

Tesla deliveries fell 13.5% year-over-year in Q2 2025, the largest decline in the company's history. This follows a 13.0% drop in Q1 2025. Still, the decline this quarter was smaller than many, including myself, had expected.

This is my initial calculation for Tesla’s regional deliveries in Q2 2025. I’ll update the table as more registration data becomes available over the next few days.

Here are my final Tesla delivery estimates for this quarter. I’m aiming for a lower error rate than my 3.0% average over the last 12 quarters. Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q2 2025: • My estimate: 356,000 • Analyst consensus: 385,086 • Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956

1/2 Tesla is struggling to adapt to the new reality of lower sales. For example, sales in Canada have dropped to nearly zero, largely due to political controversy (source: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...).

Tesla doesn’t report Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X sales separately. Instead, it combines all three into a single number. That number was 23,640 units in Q4 2024 but fell to 12,881 units in Q1 2025 due to weak demand. Based on the latest data, the decline is expected to continue this quarter.

Today's update on Patreon (patreon.com/posts/132143...) includes DMV VIN data up to June 25. I use it to estimate Tesla’s production. Over the last 12 quarters, my error rate has been 1.4% for production and 3.0% for deliveries. However, I’ll post my final estimates on June 30th here as well.

In the first half of the year, Tesla sold • 345,088 cars in North America in 2023, and • 313,727 in 2024, a drop of 31,361 units. The decline continues in 2025, but this time, the drop will be much larger than 31,000 or even 40,000 units.

Tesla's Global inventory increased from 77,000 at the end of Q4 2024 to 101,000 at the end of Q1 2025. A similar increase is expected this quarter, with production running higher than deliveries because of limited demand.

The red line shows Tesla’s China sales this quarter based on weekly car insurance data. After 12 weeks, sales are lower than in Q1, when Tesla blamed the drop on the Model Y Juniper production changeover. Quarter-to-Date Sales (Weeks 1–12): • Q1 2025: 116,119 units • Q2 2025: 109,520 units

Based on the latest data, Tesla sales in Europe remain weak. The chart shows sales over the past few quarters, with Q1 2025 being very low, which Tesla blamed on the Model Y Juniper production changeover in March. However, Q2 shows no improvement over Q1.

The numbers changed since my tweet below. 1.6 million Tesla deliveries this year no longer look possible. Analyst consensus is still too high for now, but it’s expected to come down over the next 8 days • My Estimate: Below 1.60M units • Analyst Consensus: 1.68M units • 2024 Deliveries: 1.79M units

Tesla sales in Europe are performing poorly. Based on the latest data, sales in the first half of 2025 are expected to be down 35% YOY. Sales are down everywhere except Norway & Spain. Norway will be ~1,700 units above last year in the first half, but that’s small compared to the declines elsewhere

Tesla deliveries dropped just 1.1% in 2024. But this year, the decline is expected to be over 10%. Also, deliveries are expected to drop in all major regions, including North America, Europe, and China.

1/2 Hi everyone. Here’s the current Tesla delivery outlook based on the data so far: Q2 2025: Deliveries are expected to be between 350,000 and 395,000 units, down from 443,956 in Q2 2024. I’ll tweet my final estimate on June 30, two days before Tesla reports the official numbers.

1/5 What would be a good delivery result for Q2 2025? Tesla is currently 50,129 units behind last year after Q1. To close that gap over the remaining three quarters, they’d need to deliver 16,710 more units than last year in each quarter.

1/2 In the US, Tesla’s sales fell by 5.7% in 2024, while the overall passenger vehicle market grew by 2.8% and other battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increased by 27.4%. In Europe, Tesla’s sales dropped 10.7%, while the broader market and other BEVs posted modest growth.

Tesla often responds to slowing demand with price cuts and promotions. As a result, deliveries in 2024 declined by just 1%, while automotive gross profit excluding regulatory credits dropped nearly 20%. I expect the same trend to continue this year, but with much steeper declines in both numbers.

Tesla deliveries dropped by just 1.1% in 2024, but I expect a much bigger drop this year. Based on Tesla's performance so far, deliveries in 2025 won’t be down just a few percent.

1/3 Changes in Tesla's 2025 Delivery Guidance Oct 23, 2024: During the Q3 2024 earnings call, Elon estimated 20%–30% growth in vehicle sales for 2025. Source: youtube.com/watch?v=ScxN...

Analyst consensus for Tesla deliveries this year is now 1,731,000 units, lower than the 1,789,226 units delivered in 2024. Back in January, the consensus was over 2 million deliveries, but it has dropped since then. Still, 1,731,000 seems too high based on how Tesla has performed so far this year.

Tesla's Automotive Gross Margin Excluding Regulatory Credits dropped to 12.5% in Q1 2025, its lowest in recent years.

My summary of Tesla's earnings call: Elon is ramping up the hype as Tesla's fundamentals are deteriorating.

Here’s my detailed calculation for Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings: Non-GAAP EPS: • Analyst Consensus: $0.38 • My Estimate: $0.38 The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. We both arrived at the same EPS estimate, though some numbers, especially revenue and costs, are different.

Analyst consensus for Tesla’s 2025 deliveries has dropped from 1.85M to 1.73M since my last post below. The latest: • My Estimate: Below 1.67M units • Analyst Consensus: 1.73M • Last Year's Deliveries: 1.79M For more details, check out my daily updates on Patreon: www.patreon.com/posts/126674...

The chart shows the daily number of applications Tesla submitted for the EV incentive program in Canada before it ran out of funds. Timeline of Events: • Jan 9: Tesla’s daily application volume began to increase. 1/4

Demand is soft, and Tesla sales in the US are declining. The chart shows what happened last year in each region. I expect the same trends to continue this year, though there’s a chance that sales in China could see their first yearly decline.

Production at Tesla’s Fremont factory in California is down by 25% from its peak because of demand issues. Survey data shows that U.S. EV buyers are moving away from the Tesla brand because they don’t want to be associated with the political controversy surrounding it.

Based on the latest data, Tesla's production at Giga Texas was as follows over the last 5 quarters. For more details, see: Tesla Production & Delivery History docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

1/2 Tesla announced that Giga Texas produced its 400,000 vehicle: x.com/tesla_na/sta... Only 400,000 units over the last 3 years is not a great achievement. Over the last 12 months, the factory has produced just 153,000 units. That’s just 15% of ...

Based on the latest data, the regional breakdown of Tesla sales in Q1 was as follows: Some people asked if US sales could be 128,000 units. No, because we have the actual numbers for China, Europe, and ROW. When we subtract those from global sales, we're left with 124,657 units for 'USA + Canada'.

Here’s how my Tesla delivery estimates for Q1 2025 changed over the quarter: • Day 70 (Mar 11): I was 5.7% too high. • Day 77 (Mar 18): My estimate improved. I was only 3.4% too high. • Day 90 (Mar 31): My error rate climbed back to 5.4%, mainly because a few optimistic assumptions added up.

Tesla is expected to release its Q1 production and delivery numbers at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Over the past few years, they’ve always published them on the second day of the month. When the markets are open, as they are today, Tesla releases the numbers during premarket hours, at 9:00 a.m. ET.

Hi everyone. The chart shows how Tesla delivery estimates for Q1 have evolved throughout the quarter. We’re now just 4 hours away from Tesla releasing the official numbers. Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q1 2025: • 355,000 My Estimate • 377,592 Analyst Consensus • 386,810 Last year’s Q1 deliveries

Final Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q1 2025: • My estimate: 355,000 • Analyst consensus: 377,592 I’m aiming for a lower error rate than my 2.6% average over the last 12 quarters. The analyst consensus is based on Tesla's survey of 27 analysts, also known as the company-compiled consensus.

1/3 Hi everyone. Latest DMV VIN data, up to March 27th, shows the following: • Tesla's Model S/X is at its lowest point in the past 14 quarters • Cybertruck production is at its lowest in the last 4 quarters The chart below is an old chart from Q4 to show what the data looks like when visualized.

Tesla delivery estimates for the full year have dropped since my last post below. The latest: • My Estimate: Below 1.68M units • Analyst Consensus: 1.85M • Tesla's Target: 1.79M A year ago today, my 2024 estimate was 91,000 and analyst consensus 252,000 higher than what actually happened in 2024.

Tesla delivery estimates for the full year have dropped since my last post below. The latest: • My Estimate: Below 1.68M units • Analyst Consensus: 1.90M • Tesla's Target: 1.79M A year ago today, my 2024 estimate was 111,000 and analyst consensus 280,000 higher than what actually happened in 2024.

I expect Tesla's deliveries to drop by more than 5% this year. Tesla’s delivery growth was impressive in the past, but it saw a sharp decline in 2024. Once a leader, Tesla is now struggling to regain momentum due to shifting brand perception in Western markets and increasing competition in China.

Based on the latest data, Tesla deliveries this quarter are expected to be the lowest of the last 10 quarters. I'll tweet my final estimate on March 31. Over the past 12 quarters, my accuracy has been 97.4% For more details, check out: patreon.com/posts/124580... It includes the latest DMV VIN data

1/2 Xiaomi SU7 continues to outsell Tesla's Model 3 in China. Sales in China (Apr 2024 - Feb 2025): • Xiaomi SU7: 186,112 • Tesla Model 3: 171,519 Xiaomi, best known for its smartphones in China and Europe, started producing its first car, the SU7, in April 2024.

The most important Tesla news last week was a Reuters report stating that Tesla’s cheaper car, a stripped-down version of Model Y, has been pushed back to 2026. This will hurt Tesla’s delivery numbers this year. www.reuters.com/business/aut...