Russia just opened a second front in the Energy War. 🇷🇺 While the U.S. is bogged down in the Persian Gulf, Alexander Novak is weaponizing the Druzhba pipeline. Kazakh oil to Germany is being "diverted" starting May 1. This is the Great Diversion🧵

Europe, don't worry: Brussels is ready to provide you with a new "Grand Strategy" to handle the upcoming fertilizer crisis stemming from the U.S.-Israel conflict against Iran...

The clock is ticking. ⏳ At midnight Wednesday, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire expires. With a U.S. carrier group inbound and 51 nations moving to sideline Washington, the map of global energy is being redrawn in real-time. Everything you need to know about Vol. 30/26 of EGS. 🧵👇

Bypassing the Gulf? The Geopolitical Rebirth of the Nigeria-Morocco Pipeline Nigeria and Morocco aim to reach a final agreement on the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP) by the end of the year.

I spoke with Isabelle Hanne from @liberation.fr about the implications and logic of the U.S. blockade on Hormuz. Trump’s strategy carries heavy risks for the security of vessels involved and the highly-explosive content they carry. Read the interview here www.liberation.fr/internationa...

EGS 29/26 is out! In this issue: 1️⃣The🇺🇸U.S. Hormuz Siege 2️⃣🇭🇺Budapest Energy Shocker after Orban's defeat 3️⃣🇨🇳Beijing’s Oil Reserves Fortress 4️⃣ 🇸🇦Riyadh’s East-West Pipeline Resilience 5️⃣ The🇮🇹Eni's Descalzi Defiance on Russian Energy Follow & Subscribe rebrand.ly/EGSTwitter

One truly has to wonder how it is possible that nobody in the U.S. administration recognises how damaging Donald Trump’s messaging is to U.S. energy partnerships around the world.

The TAL oil pipeline, connecting Italy, Austria, and Germany, has been sabotaged. As the world’s attention remains fixed on the Strait of Hormuz and on the high-stakes negotiations beginning in Islamabad, a critical energy artery in Europe has been disabled. 🧵

EGS 28 / 26 is out! 🇮🇷💰The $2M Toll. 🇩🇪Berlin’s 24 TWh emergency pivot. ❓🇸🇦Why the Saudi bypass is broken. 🏔️🇦🇷Milei’s Glacier Law. 🇪🇬🇨🇾Egypt’s Mediterranean gas hedge. Follow & Subscribe to receive the next Volume in your inbox! rebrand.ly/ESGBS

2,000 subscribers and counting! 🚀 When I started Energy Geopolitics & Statecraft less than three months ago, the goal was to provide deep-dive analysis at the intersection of global energy markets and national security.

Don’t let the 20% drop in oil and gas prices fool you: The "U.S.-Iran ceasefire" is an Energy Travesty. As markets rally on news of the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, the headlines are missing the structural shift beneath the surface. Read & Subscribe substack.com/home/post/p-...

EGS 27/26 is out! 🚢 The Hormuz Toll 🇮🇱Israel Resumes Gas Exports to🇪🇬Egypt 💨 🇬🇧🇨🇳The UK Against Chinese Wind Turbines ⚛️ The🇷🇺Russian Nuclear Edge in🇻🇳Vietnam 🪨 Coal's Comeback in🇯🇵🇮🇳Asia Read & Subscribe here rebrand.ly/ESGBS

Countdown to the Ultimatum: Trump Threatens "Stone Age" Strikes as Iran Proposes Hormuz Transit Fees Strategic ambiguities have reached a flashpoint in the final hours before the U.S. President Donald Trump’s ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires by 8.00 p.m. Eastern Time. 🧵

A "Brotherly" Exemption: Iran and Iraq Reach Historic Deal to Reopen Hormuz for Baghdad’s Crude An unprecedented, and potentially historical agreement seems reached between Iraq and Iran over granting safe passage to Iraqi tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

Have you noticed that U.S. President Donald Trump only threatens Iran when markets are closed, only to shift the narrative just before they reopen? Once again, the White House is attempting to reverse the narrative regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

Germany Seeks to Rewrite Nuclear History as the Gulf War Bites The ongoing energy crisis is dismantling the few, weak certainties Europe held regarding energy security, forcing the continent’s largest economies to reconsider policies once deemed irreversible. 🧵

EGS 26/26 is out! 📍 The Great Pipelines Bypass From Hormuz 🇺🇸 The U.S. Energy Independence Myth 📉 Asia’s Breaking Point in Oil Reserves 🇪🇺Record Diesel Price Surge 🇫🇷The EU Nuclear Probe Into France State Aid Read & Subscribe here rebrand.ly/ESGBS

The King is Naked and Either With No Plan to End the War Against Iran Nor Reopen Hormuz Everybody scrutinised U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest speech searching for insights on when and how the war might end and bring relief for energy markets. They were unanimously disappointed. 🧵

Yesterday evening, I was live on @france24.com with to discuss the implications of the current energy crisis for Europe. We explored the measures implemented by the EU and Asian countries thus far, as well as the ongoing risk of further price spikes across the continent.

🚨The U.S.-Israel war against Iran and the Trump administration's rhetoric could mark a definitive transformation of global energy stability, shattering the rules-based international gas order. 📌Read the article and subscribe here rebrand.ly/ESGBS

Rome Delays Coal Phase-Out to 2038 as the Gulf War Shatters Italy’s Energy Transition The Italian government has just pushed back the implementation of the coal phase out by more than a decade, reversing the timeline due to the current energy and geopolitical turbulence in the Persian Gulf. 🧵

The Great Abdication: Is Washington Handing the Keys of the Global Economy to Tehran? The United States appears ready to abandon its allies and cede control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran. 🧵

EGS 25/26 is out! 🇺🇸US President Trump Threatens🇮🇷Iran's Kharg Island 🇰🇷 South Korea considering private driving bans 🇪🇬 Egypt tripled its gas bill 🇦🇺 Cyclone Narelle halts Wheatstone LNG 🇳🇿 New Zealand triggers its National Fuel Plan Read & Subscribe 🫴https://rebrand.ly/ESGBS

The Red Sea Trap: Houthi Entry Into the War Threatens Saudi Arabia’s Final Energy Lifeline The Houthis have entered the war against the U.S. and Israel. This is another dramatic development for global energy markets, as both Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb are now threatened 🧵

Moscow’s "Nord Stream" Gambit: Lavrov Weaponizes U.S. Energy Dominance as Europe’s Gas Supplies Dwindle Russia is playing the "Nord Stream card" with the EU, suggesting a possible U.S. acquisition of the pipelines and highlighting the interest of U.S. President Donald Trump's allies. 🧵

EGS Vol.23/26 is out! In this issue, we deep-dive into: 📉 The U.S. Ultimatum & Iran's Threats 🚢 The Last Qatari LNG on Water 🇨🇳China's Energy Bait to🇹🇼Taiwan ⛽ Rationing Oil in Europe Reutrns 🇺🇸 Domestic Blowback as Gas prices surge Read & Subscribe 🫴https://rebrand.ly/ESGBS

The Fertilizer Famine: How the Hormuz Blockade Prices Food Out of Reach One of the most severe consequences of the Hormuz blockade is the looming threat to global food production. As urea is produced primarily from natural gas, the seaborne fertilizer market has been thrown into chaos by the war

I am absolutely thrilled to share that Energy Geopolitics & Statecraft has surpassed 1,000 subscribers on Substack—and we are continuing to grow at an incredible pace every day. To reach this milestone in less than 60 days since launch is a testament to the urgency of the global energy dialogue.

🚨NATO & Hormuz EGS Vol.21/26 is out! 1️⃣President Trump issues an "Hormuz Ultimatum" 2️⃣The Safety Valve of Fujairah Fails 3️⃣The Druzhba pipeline Crisis Worsen 4️⃣Yanbu's Strategic Oil Exports 5️⃣Japan Asks Australia More LNG Read the full analysis here rebrand.ly/ESGBS

After reviewing more than 30 essays from my master's students in my "Politics of Global Energy" class at the @uio.no, I can reveal with complete certainty that they are better informed about the unfolding crisis than the European Commission.

Shell is the first international major to declare force majeure to clients who source LNG from Qatar. The highly-anticipated next wave of LNG, which was expected to stabilise global markets and provide long-term energy security, is crumbling as a consequence of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.

🚨 Oil Markets Shattered and the Largest SPR Release in History is coming EGS Vol. 20/26 is out! 1️⃣🇮🇷Iran's Mines in Hormuz 2️⃣The IEA SPR Release 3️⃣🇶🇦Qatar's LNG Reliability 4️⃣🇯🇵Japan’s Energy Survival 5️⃣🇮🇷Iran Targets🇮🇱Israel's Energy Read & Subscribe rebrand.ly/EGSTwitter

The Sanctions Paradox: How the Hormuz Blockade Forced Washington to Rehabilitate Russian Oil The U.S.-Israel war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have become a boon for Russia’s energy revenues, effectively forcing Washington to ease sanctions against Moscow 🧵

🚨OIL HITS $120 Energy Geopolitics & Statecraft Vol. 19/26 is out: 📈 Market Shock 🚢 🇺🇸U.S. Naval Shift 🇷🇺 The Kremlin Exploits Hormuz 🇮🇷War on Iran Energy 🇨🇳 Beijing Energy Emergency The "nightmare scenario" it’s here Read & subscribe here rebrand.ly/EGSTwitter

🚨🛢️Is the Global Energy Order Dead? 🇺🇸🇮🇱🔥🇮🇷Forget the 2020 price war. Forget the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. What we are witnessing in the Strait of Hormuz today is the "Great Energy Reordering" of the 21st century. Read & subscribe here rebrand.ly/ESGBS

Putin’s Energy Masterclass: Exploiting the Hormuz Crisis to Break the EU’s Resolve Vladimir Putin is threatening to cut remaining gas supplies to Europe at the exact moment when EU inventories are the most fragile in years. An honest masterclass in energy geopolitics.

This is, literally, the most important countdown in the world. Oil exporters in the Persian Gulf, currently unable to export their hydrocarbon bounty, are all facing a dire short-term outlook.

🚨An🇮🇷Iranian missile has just been intercepted by NATO forces over the skies of the🇹🇷Turkish city of Dortyol 🚢Dortyol hosts an oil export terminal and an LNG import facility ⚔️Ankara just stated that is reserve the right to respond to any hostile act towards our country

🚨🇺🇸Is the U.S. blackmailing Gulf states? EGS Vol.18/26 is out! Key Briefs in this Volume: 🛡️🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱The Hormuz Deadlock 🔥🇶🇦Qatar’s LNG Red Line 📉🇮🇶Iraq’s Storage Crisis 🚢🇷🇺🇺🇦Shadow War in the Med 🇪🇺EU storage gas crisis (again) Read & subscribe here rebrand.ly/ESGBS

The Perfect Storm: EU Storage Hits 30% Threshold as Qatari Supply Vanishes Let’s talk about the dramatic situation of EU gas storage, which dropped below 30% the same day Iran struck Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, halting all Qatari LNG production.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷The "Nightmare Scenario" is no longer a simulation. EGS Vol. 17/26 is out! We break down: 🚢The closure of the Hormuz Strait 🛢️OPEC+ Dilemma 🔥A Regional Gas Halt 🇮🇳India's Oil Security 🇮🇶🇸🇾 Iraq anxiety and Damascus Pivot Read & subscribe here rebrand.ly/ESGBS

That's how the TTF Front-Month Index—the EU gas price benchmark—began the day. +22.047% Rather than the "Age of Electrification," I would call this the "Age of Instability." #EnergyGeopoliticsandStatecraft #EU #NaturalGas #LNG #EnergySecurity

The U.S. and Israel have launched a joint military operation to overthrow the Iranian government—an escalation that will inevitably affect the entire energy security of the Middle East.

🚨🇺🇸Can a single court ruling dismantle a global energy doctrine? EGS 2/26 brief explores: 🔹⚖️The IEEPA Vacuum 🔹 🇯🇵The Tokyo Commitment 🔹 🇪🇺The Transatlantic Rift Read the full article here #EnergyGeopoliticsandStatecraft #Oil #LNG #EU #Japan #TradePolicy#EnergySecurity

A Digital Iron Curtain: Chile-China Express vs. the Humboldt Cable. The U.S.-China rivalry in the Pacific Ocean has reached a new peak. The Trump administration has directly sanctioned the outgoing Chilean minister of Transport and Telecommunications Juan Carlos Muñoz, along with members

In Energy Geopolitics & Statecraft Vol. 16/26 is out! I analysed: 🏗️ 🇺🇦🇷🇺Ukraine’s $90B Reconstruction Plan 🚢🇺🇸🇮🇷 The VLCC Rate Explosion 🇺🇸🤝🇪🇺 The Transatlantic LNG Pact 🇰🇪🇺🇬 East African Oil Integration 🇨🇩🇺🇸🇨🇳The DRC Mining shifts Read & Subscribe rebrand.ly/ESGBS

Four Years into the Energy War between Russia, Ukraine, and the EU: A Terrible Anniversary Four years into the energy war between Russia, Ukraine, and the EU—an event still disrupting global energy markets—February 24 marks a terrible anniversary for every human soul in Europe.

Energy Geopolitics & Statecraft Vol. 15/26 is out! We analyse: 🇺🇦🇸🇰🇭🇺 The Druzhba Standoff 🇧🇷🇮🇳 Global South Mineral Partnership 🇺🇦Ukraine's Infrastructure Under🇷🇺Russia's Siege: 🇻🇪🇨🇴 The Sanctions Trap 🇦🇷🇦🇪🇮🇹 Vaca Muerta's New Alliance Read & Subscribe rebrand.ly/ESGBS

🇮🇳India is outperforming everyone in the new "Multiplex" global order. While the🇺🇸🇪🇺🇬🇧🇨🇦West debates Unipolarity vs. Multipolarity, New Delhi is playing a different game entirely. My new piece on Energy Geopolitics & Statecraft is out! Read it here rebrand.ly/EGSIndMultX

Energy Geopolitics & Statecraft Vol 14/26 is out! Key highlights: 🇯🇵🇺🇸 Japan’s Mega Gas Investment in the U.S. 🇵🇭 Renewable Milestone 🇬🇷🇺🇸Chevron's Crete Gamble 🇩🇿🇪🇺 The Algiers Gas Paradox 🇨🇮 🇮🇹Eni’s Gas Discovery in Côte d'Ivoire Read & Subscribe rebrand.ly/ESGBS