[1/4] Brief warming to +3.8C on Wednesday 11th exactly as forecast, then sharp cold intensification confirms: ensemble mean dropping from +2.5C Thursday 12th to -1.6C Friday 13th, bottoming at -6.0C Saturday 14th.

[1/4] Mild conditions holding through Wednesday 11th as forecast, peaking around +3C. Sharp transition Friday 13th confirmed by all members - models now converging on Saturday 14th as coldest point at -6.9C mean (coldest member -9.8C). Worth noting: models have been trending warmer over recent...

[1/5] Sharp cold plunge confirmed for Friday 14th as all four models converge, GFS showing -7.2°C. However, before that arrives: midweek brings a brief mild spell with Wednesday 11th peaking at +4.0°C, followed by rapid cooling.

[1/5] Cold signal intensifying sharply. UKMO now locked onto a severe temperature drop for next weekend - ensemble mean plunging to -8.6C at 850hPa by Saturday 14th, with the coldest point Sunday 15th at -8.0C.

[1/4] Brief midweek recovery to +3.8C on Wednesday 11th, then sharp cold intensification through late week. Ensemble converging tightly on significant cold arriving Friday 13th, bottoming out at -6.9C by Saturday 14th, with coldest members reaching -9.9C.

[1/4] Mild spell continues today through Wednesday 11th as tracked, peaking around +4C tomorrow. Sharp cold plunge from Friday 13th arrives on schedule - Saturday 14th shows coldest point at -6.6C ensemble mean, with coldest member reaching -8.2C. Yellow warning in force Tuesday 10th-Wednesday...

[1/5] ICON ensemble firming up a volatile week ahead. Brief warming peaks Wednesday 11th at +4.2°C, then sharp reversal develops with cold intensifying through late week.

[1/5] UK Daily 09 02 2026 - Met Office says: Unsettled at first, turning colder later this week.

[1/4] Mild spell peaking today as forecast, +4C by Wednesday 11th, then sharp cooling begins. Cold plunge arrives Friday 13th-Saturday 14th - models target -4C to -5C on Saturday with coldest member showing -9C.

[1/5] Models firming up on sharp cold next weekend, Friday 13th-Sunday 15th. Mean trajectory drops from +4°C Wednesday 11th to -7°C by Saturday 14th - all four models now showing this pattern with GFS coldest at -7.7°C. Current mild spell continues through Wednesday before the plunge.

[1/5] Cold signal sharpening into a sharp temperature plunge for next weekend. UKMO holding the Saturday 14th timeframe for coldest conditions at 850hPa, with mean trajectory dropping to -7.1C - that's a solid 10-degree drop from the mild +3.6C peak on Wednesday 11th. Near-term pattern remains...

[1/5] ICON ensemble showing a turbulent forecast for the week ahead. After brief warming to +4.2°C by Wednesday 11th, sharp cooling develops late week with temperatures plunging to -6.1°C by Saturday 14th. Ensemble members diverging widely in the cold scenario - coldest shows -9.7°C, warmest...

[1/4] Mild spell peaks Tuesday 10th at +4C, then cooling begins. Sharp cold plunge arrives by Friday 13th to Saturday 14th - ensemble mean targeting -6C with coldest member showing -8C. Strong multi-model agreement on this cold arrival window (spread just 3C).

[1/3] ICON models showing a volatile week ahead for London. After near-normal temperatures today (Sun 8th, +0.5°C), brief mid-week warming to +4.6°C on Wednesday 11th, then cooling sharply through late week.

[1/5] Mild pattern extends through Wednesday 11th around +3C before sharp turnaround - models now show accelerated cold plunge to -5C by Saturday 14th, slightly colder than previous run suggested.

[1/5] Cold still emerging for mid-month with GFS leading at -7.7°C by Friday 14th, though signal has weakened from previous runs. Models show split forecast: relatively mild through Wednesday 11th (reaching +4.2°C), followed by sharp cooling into the 13th-15th window.

[1/5] Near-term pattern continuing through Thursday 12th with mostly positive anomalies, but UKMO has made a marked shift colder for next weekend - models now bringing in sharp cold by Saturday 14th, dropping to -7C at 850hPa around that timeframe.

[1/3] ICON showing cooling trajectory through the forecast period: from near-normal today (+0.5°C) down to -2.2°C by Friday 13th. Wednesday 11th briefly peaks at +4.6°C before the downturn. Models trending colder in the extended range compared to yesterday's run - cold now returning by end of...

[1/5] Near-normal conditions through Tuesday 10th around +1C, then a marked mild spike to +4C on Wednesday 11th - sharper than previous runs suggested. But the subsequent cold trajectory holds: sharp drop to -2C by Friday 13th, then the coldest point arrives Saturday 14th around -6C (range -9C...

[1/5] 🧵 Weekly recap: A properly cold week for tracking! Cold signal stayed active across 5 consecutive runs (~2 days), with 850hPa temps bottoming out at -6.81°C. Issued 87 cold alerts as models tracked the developing pattern. This is what the system was built for.

[1/2] What weather or forecasting topics would you like WXD to discuss? Follow us and reply with your suggestions - we can only see replies from followers. Popular topics covered Tuesday and Friday.

[1/3] ICON maintaining near-normal pattern through mid-week, with Wednesday 11th peaking at +3.7°C as tracked. Models then turn colder: Thursday 12th drops to +1.8°C, Friday 13th reaching -1.9°C.

[1/5] UK Daily 08 02 2026 - Met Office says: WXD view: Widespread showers today, some heavy with hail and gusty winds. Rain moving NE overnight into Sunday.

[1/4] Near-normal conditions through Tuesday 9th around +1C holding as forecast. Wednesday 11th's mild spike to +4C now looks sharper than yesterday's run suggested, but the subsequent cold plunge trajectory is unchanged. Sharp drop Thursday-Friday 12th-13th (from +2C down to -0.2C)...

[1/5] Cold arriving mid-month with sharp dip to around -7°C Friday-Saturday 14th-15th. All models aligned on the timing and strength - GFS coldest at -7.8°C on the 14th, ensemble spread very tight. Near-term staying mild through Wednesday 11th (up to +4°C), then rapid drop.

[1/5] Near-term stability continues through Wednesday 11th, with temps mostly +1C to +2C, but models now eyeing a more significant cold push for next weekend.

[1/3] ICON showing near-normal pattern continuing through next week, with brief dips and recoveries punctuating the forecast. Monday 9th touches freezing (+0.0°C) as tracked, then mid-week warmth confirmed: Wednesday 11th reaching +3.7°C before settling back to +1.8°C Thursday 12th. Models...

[1/5] Near-normal temperatures continue through Tuesday 9th around +1C, then mild blip Wednesday 11th to +4C before the cold plunge accelerates. Models bring sharp drop Thursday-Friday 12th-13th (from +3C down to -4C), bottoming Saturday 14th at -6C ensemble mean. Coldest member shows -9C, but...

[1/3] ICON holding near-normal pattern through next week, with Monday 9th briefly dipping to +0.4°C as forecast. Mid-week recovery signal confirmed: Wednesday 11th climbing to +4.0°C, then settling around +1.7°C by Thursday 12th. Wide ensemble spread (9.8°C range) shows low agreement - coldest...

[1/5] MOGREPS shows near-normal temperatures holding through Wednesday 11th (mostly +1C to +3C), then a sharp cold plunge arriving late next week. Sharp drop Friday 13th to -3C, reaching coldest point Saturday 14th at -6C ensemble mean (coldest member showing -9C).

[1/5] Cold signal holds for next week with strong model agreement. Mild for next few days (around +1C to +2C through Sunday 8th), then brief warm spike to +4C on Wednesday 11th before sharp reversal.

[1/4] Cold signal strengthened for Friday 13th, but model shifted 2.2C warmer overnight – now showing +0.5C peak vs yesterday's -1.7C projection. That Wednesday 11th mild spike (+4.0C) remains, followed by cooling into the weekend. Near-term stays neutral through Tuesday 10th (+0.4C to +1.1C),...

[1/3] ICON maintaining near-normal outlook through this week, with Monday 9th briefly touching +0.4°C before the late-period warming materialises. Wednesday 11th climbs to +4.0°C - consistent with recent runs showing this mid-week recovery signal. Wide ensemble spread (9.8°C range) reflects...

[1/4] MOGREPS holds near-normal temperatures through Tuesday 10th (+0.5C to +2.5C) despite a Yellow warning for Scotland on Sunday 8th (Met Office, rain/wind not specified).

[1/2] ICON still shows near-normal temps through mid-week with Monday 9th dipping to +0.5°C, but the late-period warming signal remains robust - Wednesday 11th climbing to +3.9°C before settling around +2.7°C Thursday 12th.

[1/5] UK Daily 07 02 2026 - Met Office says: Showers or longer spells of rain moving north.

[1/4] Models continue progressive cooling trend now reaching -5.0C by Saturday 14th—a slight deepening from yesterday's -4.5C forecast, extending the cold development another day into the extended range. Near-term stays near-normal through Sunday-Monday 8th-9th around 0.3-1.5C, but the...

[1/5] Strong cold signal for next week, with all four models converging on a sharp drop. Multi-model mean shows steady cooling through the forecast, from around +1°C early next week to -6°C by Saturday 14th-Sunday 15th February.

[1/4] Forecast taking another swing – model now shows brief mild interlude Wednesday 11th (+4.1C) before sharp cold arrives Friday 13th (-1.7C), countering yesterday's warm revision. Near-term remains neutral through early week (hovering +0.1C to +2.1C Mon-Tue 9th-10th), then that mid-week...

[1/2] ICON maintaining near-normal pattern through mid-week, with coldest point Monday 9th at +0.5°C. Notable warming then emerges - models converging on a marked temperature climb to +3.9°C by Wednesday 11th, with further warming into late period (+2.7°C Thu 12th).

[1/2] Models continue progressive cooling trend, now reaching -4.3C by Friday 13th—a slight warming from yesterday's -4.5C forecast but still a substantial cold development through the coming week. Short-term shows near-normal conditions today (1.7C) drifting cooler through Sunday-Monday...

ICON ensemble maintaining the cooling signal through early week - Monday 9th marks the coldest point at +0.4°C. From Tuesday onwards, a notable warming trend emerges, models showing temperatures climbing to +3.3°C by Wednesday 11th. High ensemble agreement on this cold-to-mild transition.

[1/3] MOGREPS has shifted significantly colder since yesterday's run - now forecasting progressive cooling from +2.3C today to -4.5C by Friday 13th, a marked downward revision (previous run: -2.0C by 13th).

[1/4] Models firming on sharp cold from next week - all four showing -5°C to -7°C at 850hPa around 14th-15th February, with GEM and ECM coldest. Near term stays mild through the weekend (around +1°C), but cold signal strengthens into midweek before the plunge.

🌀 GEFS SSW: WATCH ↑ (13%) 4/31 members show reversal signal in 5-16 day window. Vortex currently moderate (26 m/s). (First run to reach threshold in 24h)

[1/3] Model has made a major warmer adjustment since last run – the mid-period cold signal has largely washed out. Still tracking a brief cooler spell Monday 9th (-0.4C) but far less pronounced than previously shown, and short-lived. Key revision: Wednesday 11th now appears at +3.6C instead of...

[1/2] ICON ensemble holding the cooling trend - temperatures dipping through early week to marginal cold Monday 9th at +0.4C (coldest point), with tightest spread showing high model agreement.

[1/2] Models have shifted colder since the last update - forecast now shows progressive cooling to -2.0C by Friday 13th (previously -0.8C). This is a notable downward revision, cooling the end-of-period forecast by over 1C compared to last run. Near-term stays near-normal through Monday 9th...

[1/4] When a weather model updates every 6 hours, the forecast for next week Thursday can shift by several degrees between runs. Watching those shifts tells you how confident the forecast is.

[1/2] ICON ensemble confirms the cooling trend - gradual chill through the weekend sees temperatures drop to +1.2C by Sunday 8th, then dipping into marginal cold Monday 9th at +0.3C before models show recovery Wednesday 11th reaching +2.9C.