[1/5] ICON 00z Sun 5 Jul: 850hPa sits at 12.2C now, dipping to 10.3C by midday before recovering. Monday brings a clear lift to 14.8C, with the ensemble tight (spread 1.7-2.2C) through Tuesday — high confidence in that recovery.

[1/5] MOGREPS 12z Sunday 5th. Current 850hPa over London: 13.2C, tight ensemble (0.9C spread). Monday 6th lifts to 15.1C, Tuesday 7th to 15.6C. Modest warming trend mid-week, members broadly agreeing.

[1/4] Models agree: a mid-July warmth peak near 17-18C (850hPa) around Wednesday–Thursday 8th–9th, then a steady multi-week cooling trend. GEM and AIFS track warmest through mid-period; GFS sits cooler throughout.

[1/4] UKMO 00z | 850hPa starts mild at 11.5C today, trending steadily warmer through the week – 14.7C by Monday, 16.5C Wednesday.

[1/5] MOGREPS-G 06z | London 850hPa. Today sits at 11.8C — well above the summer climatological average. A steady warm-up follows: Monday 6th 15.0C, Tuesday 7th 15.5C. Members tightly clustered through midweek. Confidence is high for this near-term rise.

[1/5] ICON-EU-EPS 00z | Sunday 5th: ensemble mean 12.2C, dipping to 10.3C by midday. A brief easing before recovery — Monday 6th climbs to 14.8C with a tight spread of 2.2C. High confidence in that rebound.

[1/5] 🧵 Week 28 Jun–5 Jul was quiet on the weather front—no cold signals triggered, no alerts issued. All 7 models (GFS, ECM, AIFS, GEM, ICON, UKMO, MOGREPS) tracking normally with no extreme events at 850hPa. Steady, predictable conditions across the hemisphere.

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[1/5] ICON-EU-EPS 04z 12z | 850hPa temps over London sit around 10-12C through Sunday, dipping to 10.4C Sunday 5th midday before Monday 6th brings a clear recovery to ~15C. Ensemble spread is tight on Monday (1.9C), lending confidence to that shift.

[1/4] UK Daily 05 07 2026 - Met Office says: Cloudy in the north with rain. Very warm sunshine elsewhere. WXD Alert: Yellow warnings Sun-Mon. Warm pattern (9-11°C 850hPa) supports Met Office warm/hot forecasts except Scotland rain. Models well-aligned.

[1/5] MOGREPS 00z run. 850hPa over London sits at 11.6C tonight — near seasonal average. A warming trend builds through the week, reaching 15–16C by Wednesday to Thursday.

[1/4] All 4 models agree: a warm peak mid-week around 17-18C (850hPa) over London, with GEM and AIFS reaching 18.2C Thursday. Confidence is high for the warm spell — multi-model spread is tight through Sunday 12th.

[1/4] UKMO 04 Jul 12z: 850hPa temps over London dip to 11.2C overnight tonight before recovering through the week. Coldest point shifted 0.5C colder since last run – minor noise rather than a meaningful shift.

[1/5] MOGREPS-G 18z Saturday run. 850hPa over London: 11.8C now, rising steadily through the week. Monday 6th sees the ensemble tighten — just 1.1C spread, good confidence in 14.4C.

[1/5] ICON-EU-EPS 12z Sun 5 Jul: 850hPa sits around 10-12C today before a step up to ~15C from Monday. Sunday 6th onward sees a settled warmer pattern, with tight ensemble spread of 1.9-3.3C through mid-week signalling good confidence in that recovery.

[1/5] ICON-EU-EPS 00z Sat 4 July. At 850hPa, London sits around 11C today, dipping to 10.7C this afternoon before a gradual recovery. Spread is tight early (1.1C) but widens to ~5C by Saturday afternoon, reflecting uncertainty in timing.

[1/5] MOGREPS 12z: 850hPa sits at 14.3C now, dipping to 12.7C Sunday. A brief cool spell — but well above summer climatology. Members clustered tightly through mid-week. No cold signal here.

[1/4] 850hPa London | Sat 4 Jul run. All 4 models agree: a brief dip to ~11C mid-Saturday night before warming resumes. Signal is clear — ensemble mean climbs from 11.5C now to a warm peak near 16.7C around Thursday 9th–10th.

[1/4] UKMO 00z Sat 4th: 850hPa starts at 11.7C, rising through the week. July 7th peaks at 15.9C before a brief dip to 13.7C on the 8th, then recovering. Coldest point shifted +2.6C warmer since last run.

[1/5] MOGREPS-G 06z Saturday 4th. 850hPa over London sits at 11.1C now, rising to 14-15C through Monday 6th to Tuesday 7th. A gentle warm-up through the early week. Confidence is reasonable — spread under 3C for the next few days.

[1/5] ICON-EU-EPS 00z Sat 4th: 850hPa sitting near 11C through today, with ensemble spread tight at just 1.1C. Midweek a gradual warm-up begins, reaching 14-15C by Monday 6th with moderate confidence.

[1/5] ICON-EU-EPS 12z Fri: 850hPa over London sitting near 9C now, rising to 11-12C through Saturday. Ensemble spread is tight at 1-2C through Saturday 4th — reasonable confidence in a mild, unsettled start to the weekend.

[1/5] UK Daily 04 07 2026 - Met Office says: Outbreaks of rain in the northwest. Brighter skies elsewhere.

[1/5] MOGREPS 00z Saturday 4th. 850hPa steady at 11-12C through Sunday. Little spread — members agree on the near-term. No cold signal here; this is close to seasonal average.

[1/4] 850hPa over London: all 4 models agree on a warm-up through mid-July. Multi-model mean climbs from ~11C today to ~15.5C by Tuesday 7th–Wednesday 9th. IFS, AIFS and GEM track closely; GFS runs slightly cooler but the signal is consistent.

[1/4] UKMO 12z · 4 Jul–10 Jul · 850hPa London Mild start: 9.1C at analysis, rising to 14.5C by Saturday afternoon. Run-to-run shift negligible (+0.1C). No meaningful change from previous run.

[1/5] MOGREPS 18z run. 850hPa over London sits at 9.8C now — well above the summer climatological average. Confidence is high here: spread just 1.4C across members.

[1/5] ICON-EU-EPS 12z Thursday: 850hPa sits near 11-12C through Saturday, with ensemble spread widening to 4-5C by Sunday 5th — moderate uncertainty already present mid-range.

[1/5] ICON-EU-EPS 00z Fri 3 Jul. Currently 9.4C, holding steady through Friday. A gradual warm-up follows into the weekend, with 850hPa temps rising to around 14C by Sunday 6th. Ensemble spread tight near-term (1-2C), widening considerably by day 4.

[1/5] MOGREPS-G 12z | 850hPa over London. Today sits at 9.1C — well above the summer climatological floor. Friday to Monday warms steadily: 13.5C Saturday, 14.3C Sunday, 14.4C Monday. Ensemble well clustered through the weekend.

[1/4] 850hPa over London: all 4 models agree on a mid-afternoon trough today — ensemble mean dips to 8.7C Friday 12Z. A brief recovery follows Friday night into Saturday before a warmer trend develops through the weekend.

[1/4] UKMO 00z Fri 3rd: 850hPa sitting at 9.0C this afternoon – well above the seasonal average. Coldest point shifted +0.3C warmer since the previous run, a minor adjustment rather than any meaningful change.

[1/5] MOGREPS-G 06z | 850hPa London. Current: 9.5C. Gradual warm-up through the week — Monday 6th sees a peak near 14.5C with good ensemble agreement (spread just 2.7C). Typical summer mid-levels, nothing remarkable early on.

[1/5] ICON-EU-EPS 00z | 850hPa temps near seasonal average today, 9.4C Friday, easing to 9.3C by Friday midday — tight ensemble (spread 1.4-2.2C), high confidence in the near-term picture.

[1/4] Now I have the specific facts I need. Let me write the thread with proper citations: Humidity doesn't make heat feel worse - dewpoint does. Relative humidity changes with air temperature, but dewpoint measures actual moisture in the air. The dew point is the temperature to which air must b...

[1/5] ICON-EU-EPS 12z Thu: 850hPa sits near 9-10C Fri, a seasonal dip but well above climatological cold thresholds. Tight spread (2-3C) gives reasonable confidence through the weekend opening.

[1/4] UK Daily 03 07 2026 - Met Office says: Fine and bright for many. Some rain in the northwest.

[1/5] MOGREPS 00z run. At 850hPa, London sits at 10.1C now. Friday and Saturday hold near 10-11C — members clustered tightly, spread under 3C. Confidence is high for this settled, mild opening to the period.

[1/4] All 4 models agree: 850hPa temps dip to ~8–9C by Friday night/Saturday morning over London, with IFS coldest at 7.5C Saturday noon. This is a brief cool dip from an above-average baseline — not a plunge, just a reset toward seasonal norms.

[1/4] UKMO 12z: 850hPa dips to 8.7C Friday afternoon – well above seasonal average. Cold point shifted 0.5C warmer since last run, a minor adjustment. Recovery follows swiftly, reaching 12.3C by Saturday afternoon.

[1/5] MOGREPS-G 18z run. 850hPa over London sits at 8.5C now — well above the summer climatological average. A brief dip to around 9C Saturday before a rapid rise to 15C by Sunday 5th.

[1/5] ICON-EU-EPS 12z Thu: 850hPa sits near 9-10C through Friday, a modest dip from Thursday's 12C. Spread tight at 2.5-3C — reasonable confidence in a briefly cooler feel before a gradual recovery begins Saturday.

[1/5] ICON-EU-EPS 00z | 850hPa London. Mild start Thu at 12.4C, easing to 8.2C by Friday 3rd 12z — the coolest point this period. Tight ensemble early (1.1C spread) gives confidence in that near-term dip. Still well above seasonal lows.

[1/5] MOGREPS-G 12z | Thu 2nd starts at 10.6C at 850hPa. Friday 3rd dips to 8.8C — the coldest point. Still well above the summer climatological average. A brief, modest cool spell, nothing more.

[1/4] All 4 models agree: a brief cooling dip arrives Thu-Fri, with the multi-model mean dropping to ~8.4C at 850hPa by Friday 3rd 12z. GFS is coldest of the four, dipping to 6.8C Thu night. IFS, AIFS and GEM cluster tightly at 8.1-8.3C Friday.

[1/4] UKMO 00z Thu 2 Jul: 850hPa dips to 8.2C Friday 3rd afternoon – a brief mid-summer cool-down before a sharp rebound. Coldest point is 1.2C warmer than the previous run.

[1/5] MOGREPS-G 06z Thu 2 Jul. 850hPa over London dips to 8.4C Friday 3rd — the coolest point in the run. Still well above the seasonal threshold. Ensemble members clustered tightly here (spread 2.9C), so reasonable confidence in that brief cool spell.

[1/5] ICON-EU-EPS 00z | Thursday sees 850hPa temps ease from 12.4C to 8.2C by Friday 3rd midday — a seasonal dip, not a cold event. Ensemble spread tightens to 3.8C around that trough, suggesting reasonable confidence in the pattern.

[1/5] ICON-EU-EPS 01 July 12z. 850hPa near 12C overnight Wed, easing to 8C by Thursday 3rd 12z — a modest mid-week dip but still above the seasonal 5C average. Ensemble spread tight at 1.4-2.1C through Wednesday.

[1/5] UK Daily 02 07 2026 - Met Office says: Rain at times, mainly in the northwest. Warming up elsewhere.