[1/3] 🌀 GEFS SSW: STRONG ↑ (100%) Vortex currently near-reversal (3.5 m/s westerlies). All 31 members signal reversal. Post-recovery from Mar 31 event.

[1/4] ICON-EU-EPS 00z: Wed through to Sat see temps oscillating +5.5C to -2.8C at 850hPa. Ensemble spread widens markedly into Thu PM (8.5C range) and peaks Fri AM at 11.6C — low pattern confidence mid-period.

[1/4] MOGREPS-G 12z: warming trend kicks in. Thursday climbs to 4C, Friday peaks near 5C. Then Saturday's signal drops back to -3C—a 8C swing in 24 hours. Ensemble tightly clustered through Friday (spread 2-6C), then fragments.

[1/4] All four models converge on a sharp cold signal Friday 4th pm into Saturday 5th, tracking -3C in the mean and as low as -3.5C (GFS). Brief warmth precedes this Thursday 3rd afternoon (+3 to +4C), setting up the sharpest drop in the forecast.

[1/3] 🌀 GEFS SSW: STRONG ↑ (100%) Vortex near-reversal (3.5 m/s westerlies). All 31 members show approaching reversal, peak -3.1 m/s Day 13. 5/5 recent runs elevated.

[1/4] UKMO 00z run: coldest point now -2.3C on Saturday 5th afternoon – shifted 0.4C warmer since last run. Minor model adjustment, well within normal run-to-run noise.

[1/4] MOGREPS-G (18-member, 06z run): brief mild pulse Thursday 3rd-4th (+2C), then colder Friday 4th-5th. Mean coldest point Sunday 6th at -2.1C. Members range -5.8C to +2.0C that day — high uncertainty on depth.

[1/4] ICON-EU 00z: Midweek cold snap arrives Saturday 5th with -2.8C mean, though ensemble spread widens to 11.6C by early Saturday showing low confidence. Current warmth (1.9C) gives way to cooler weekend pattern.

[1/3] 🌀 GEFS SSW: STRONG (93.5%) Vortex near-reversal (3.0 m/s westerlies). 29/31 members show reversal signal within 16 days. 5/5 recent runs elevated. Post-SSW recovery phase.

[1/4] ICON-EU-EPS 12z run: ensemble mean dips to -3.3C by Saturday 5th midday, coldest point this week. Spread widens to 12C by Friday 4th - high uncertainty in timing and depth of cold.

[1/5] UK Daily 01 04 2026 - Met Office says: Rain moving slowly southeastwards and weakening throughout today.

[1/4] MOGREPS-G 00z: London 850hPa dropping to -2.4C by Sunday 6th April, coldest point this run. Opens +3.1C today (Wed), slips to +1.4C Thu, -1.6C Fri. Ensemble spread widens into next week: members range -4.5C to +3.0C by Sun 5th.

[1/4] Models lock 850hPa into volatile pattern: sharp 7C plunge from +5C (Fri) to -2C (Sat), then Sunday's recovery to +4C followed by second drop to -2C by Tuesday. Agreement strongest on Fri/Sat timing — divergence emerges through second week.

[1/3] 🌀 GEFS SSW: STRONG (90.3%) Vortex near-reversal (2.6 m/s westerlies). 28/31 members forecast reversal within Day 5-16 window. 10/10 runs in last 24h elevated.

[1/3] UKMO 12z: coldest point now -2.7C Sunday 5th midday – warmer by 0.9C since last run. Early week stays cool (Thu night -2.1C) before brief midweek recovery to 7.1C Friday.

[1/4] MOGREPS-G (18z): Brief cold snap mid-week. London drops to -2.5C Thursday evening, then briefly recovers to +3C Friday before plunging back to -2.7C on Saturday 5th. By Sunday 6th, a sharp rebound to +7.5C. Wild swings ahead.

[1/4] ICON-EU 12z: Cold signal Thursday 3rd noon (-2.2C mean, coldest members -5.9C), then rapid rebound to +6.3C by Saturday 5th noon. Large spread (12C range) at Friday 4th midnight shows low pattern confidence through mid-period.

[1/3] 🌀 GEFS SSW: STRONG (100%) Vortex near-reversal (1.5 m/s westerlies). All 31 members show reversal signal. Recovery phase from Mar 31 reversal. Alert level elevated (5/5 runs in 24h).

[1/4] ICON-EU-EPS 00z: Tuesday morning starts at -2.6C, rising to 2.0C by midday, then cooling again to 1.8C overnight into Wednesday. Mild start to April but temperatures drop back to 0.1C by Wednesday afternoon.

[1/4] MOGREPS-G 12z: Cool start (2.4C today) then turning colder. Wednesday drops to 1.5C, Thursday touches freezing (-0.5C). Brief warmth Friday (7.1C) before sharp plunge to -3.0C Saturday — coldest point of the run.

[1/4] 850hPa now at -1.6C over London, dropping to -1.8C on Wednesday 2nd April before a sharp rebound to +6.0C by Friday 4th. Models converge on this cold dip timing, though GFS (-3.0C) tracks colder than IFS/AIFS/GEM cluster (-2.7C to -1.2C) at the trough.

[1/3] 🌀 GEFS SSW: STRONG (100%)

[1/4] UKMO 00z: coldest point now -3.6C Wednesday afternoon – shifted 1.7C warmer since last run. Early week starts mild (1-3C Tuesday/Wednesday morning) before sharp midweek drop.

[1/4] MOGREPS-G (06z run): Mild start on Tuesday (1.4C) gives way to persistent cold mid-week. Coldest spell arrives Saturday 5th at -2.0C, with brief recovery Thursday 3rd interrupted. Ensemble spread widens late week — 13.4C range by Friday 4th signals high uncertainty.

[1/4] ICON-EU 40-member ensemble (00z Tue): coldest period now, -2.6C mean (range -3.4 to -1.6C, tight 1.9C spread). Warming trend to Wed midday (+2.0C), brief recovery Thu midday (+3.7C), then unsettled pattern through weekend with widening spread.

[1/2] 🌀 GEFS SSW: STRONG ↓ (71%) Vortex near-reversal at 1.0 m/s (barely westerly). 22/31 members show reversal signal. Recovery from 31 Mar event — winds just turned westerly again.

[1/4] Cold air aloft doesn't directly translate to ground temperatures. 850hPa sits at roughly 1,500 meters altitude. At this level, temperatures are colder than the surface, but the relationship depends on atmospheric stability and inversion layers.

[1/4] ICON-EU-EPS 12z: brief cold spell ending. Coldest now (-3.7C early Monday), then rapid warm-up to +2.4C by midday Tuesday. Pattern flips Wednesday onwards — ensemble mean near 0-2C but spread explodes to 11C by Thursday.

[1/5] UK Daily 31 03 2026 - Met Office says: Patchy rain today, though warm sunshine later. Unsettled for Easter.

[1/4] MOGREPS 00z: tonight -2.1C (range -3.1 to -1.5C), rising sharply Wednesday to +3.0C. Cold returns Thursday -1.4C, then volatile swings through weekend — Fri +5.1C, Sat +1.6C, Sun -0.9C. Monday 7th warmest point +4.3C before cooling again.

[1/4] Models converge on a brief cold snap wrapping up now — multi-model mean bottomed at -3.2C yesterday, lifting to +2.0C today. GFS/IFS/AIFS align closely through the week ahead, while GEM diverges sharply warmer from Friday 4th.

[1/3] 🌀 GEFS SSW: STRONG ↑ (87.1%) Vortex near-reversal (0.9 m/s westerlies), recovering from Mar 31 event. 27/31 members show renewed reversal ahead. 5/5 recent runs elevated.

[1/4] UKMO 12z: cold trough Thu 3rd deepened – now -5.3C at midnight, 1.3C colder than previous run. Brief recovery to 7.1C Fri afternoon before next breakdown.

[1/4] MOGREPS 18z: warming through tonight to +2.7C Tuesday evening, then sharp drop to -2.9C Thursday. 18 members show 4-5C spread opening mid-week — still debating how deep Friday's dip. Range -5.2C to +10.7C.

[1/4] ICON-EU-EPS 30 Mar 12z: Cold snap ends tonight with rapid 5C warmup into Tuesday afternoon (mean -3C to +2C). Pattern shift brings milder westerlies after brief Arctic outbreak.

[1/2] 🌀 SSW ACTIVE (-0.4 m/s easterlies) Vortex reversed Mar 28. Recovery forecast: winds return westerly ~Mar 31 (today). Weakening trend (avg -3.3 to -0.9 m/s). 28/31 members still show signal.

[1/4] ICON-EU-EPS 00z run: coldest point Monday lunchtime at -3.5C, then warming through Tuesday to +2.2C by midday. Brief chill today, milder air arrives tomorrow.

[1/4] MOGREPS-G 12z: Cold snap today (-3.2C), then whiplash warming into Tuesday (2.0C). Coldest point now. Models converge on 5C+ Wednesday climb.

[1/4] Tight model cluster at -3.6C overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, coldest point of the week. All four ensembles converge — strong confidence. Brief thaw to +1.7C by Tuesday afternoon before resuming oscillation around freezing through Friday.

[1/2] 🌀 SSW ACTIVE (-0.4 m/s easterlies) Winds reversed Mar 28. Peak depth: -2.7 m/s at Day 16. Now recovering (avg -3.7→-1.2 m/s). Forecast return: ~Mar 31.

[1/3] UKMO 00z: coldest point tonight at -4.0C (12z) — unchanged from last run (+0.1C). Recovery to +4.2C Wednesday afternoon, then sharp reversal to -3.0C Thursday afternoon. Volatility continues through early April.

[1/4] MOGREPS-G 30 Mar 06z: coldest point now at -3.1C early Monday. Ensemble tight (1.6C spread). Warming trend through Tuesday to +2.5C, then settling near +1-2C midweek. Run-to-run: colder shift (-0.6C).

[1/4] ICON-EU-EPS 00z: Cold snap peaks Monday lunchtime at -3.5C (850hPa), then rapid 6C recovery to Tuesday lunchtime (+2.2C). Ensemble tight through this phase (spread 2-3C), high confidence in the warming trend.

[1/2] 🌀 SSW ACTIVE (-0.7 m/s easterlies) Winds reversed Mar 28, now recovering. Ensemble forecasts return to westerlies by Mar 31. 26/31 members still showing reversal signal.

[1/4] ICON-EU-EPS 29th 12z: coldest point Tuesday midday at -3.8C (range -5.0 to -2.5C), tight 2.5C spread showing good agreement. Gradual warming into Wednesday with brief recovery above freezing, then renewed chill Thursday into Friday.

[1/5] UK Daily 30 03 2026 - Met Office says: WXD view: Blustery showers north (wintry hills early) easing; largely dry south. Frost tonight eastern areas. Models show 850hPa temps -2.5C to -4.7C supporting cold airmass. No active warnings.

[1/4] MOGREPS 00z: cold spell peaks Tuesday morning at -2.5C (range -3.6C to -0.7C). Then sharp rebound to +2.1C Wednesday as milder air pushes in. Ensemble tightly clustered through midweek.

[1/3] Peak cold arriving today at midday: 4-model mean bottoms at -3.8C. GFS coldest at -4.7C, AIFS/IFS around -3.5C. Brief but sharp — tomorrow recovery begins with slow climb to +1.8C Tuesday midday, then wobbling near zero through Wednesday.

[1/2] 🌀 SSW ACTIVE (-1.2 m/s easterlies) Winds reversed Mar 28, now recovering. Ensemble forecasts westerly return ~Mar 30. Peak reversal: -3.3 m/s at Day 15.5.

[1/3] UKMO 12z: Coldest point shifted 1.4C warmer since last run – now -4.1C Monday lunchtime (today). Brief Arctic pulse gives way to rapid warming through midweek, peaking 4.2C Wednesday afternoon. Typical spring volatility.