America has institutional Alzheimer’s

Very (EVIL) Socialistic things Lei would do to fix America. Single Payer Healthcare State Owned Construction Company (build national HSR network, plug housing shortages) State Owned Energy Company (renewables go *ZOOM*) Convert Social Security + Unemployment Insurance Into Universal Basic Income

What’s most amusing about this study is that despite these dismal findings for the US it’s *still* underestimating PLA capabilities. The study identifies jamming capabilities as essential to blunt PLA offensive capability *but* China is almost certainly fielding better counter-jamming now.

The “China debate” is functionally dead. There isn’t much intellectual exploration left in the old terms that set the table for the last half century. Everyone has dug into their positions and will live or die on their hills. China discussions will continue but the new terms haven’t yet formed.

At a cafe somewhere in Silicon Valley listening to two seemingly very well connected technologists (one might be in VC) doing big name drops of people and orgs they’re connected to while talking “Omni-use technologies”, “Species ending event”, and “Building the future of western civilization”.

When “look at this is look at me” attention seeking becomes more important than reality itself culture ceases to breathe. What’s left is a naked unbound id racing toward oblivion by brainstem overload, a cognitive euthanasia hiding behind the veneer of culture’s lifeless husk.

Rereading Fukuyama’s old “End of History” essay right now and the contentions in it have aged even more poorly than the zeitgeist meme version of his thesis. (Also in retrospect it really stands out how appropriately juxtaposed Wang Huning is as his intellectual counterpart).

No matter how much people want to turn politics into a religion politics is not a church. The practical outcomes always speak for themselves.

‪Trump is not the primary counterparty for China’s global trade strategy. He is the foil for China’s global trade strategy. The sooner people understand this the more accurately they will be able to gauge how any “talks” will go. ‬

Would be so funny if Japan weaponized their US treasury reserves before China did.

In order to have a liberal democratic society you must first be able to maintain a *society*. Liberal democracy that fails this prerequisite is a hood ornament without a car.

A lot of white people are completely oblivious to how often they badger nonwhite people about political morality in what clearly looks like pernicious passive aggressive efforts to pressure nonwhite people into moral agreement and political alignment, and how tiresome that is.

Chinese kids starting college today have only ever known America as a country that’s out to kneecap China for their entire formative years. Don’t think Americans who like to concern troll political morality at China grasp how comically bankrupt they look to younger generations.

The biggest issue for American global competitiveness is that so long as public discourse fixates on morale management and cheerleading national political psychology will continue to lean towards self esteem grasping and complacency. It’s an “I surrender while pretending I’m not” mindset.

When Chinese people talk bad economy they usually mean “business is slow, working long hours for little extra gain, future income growth prospects feel dim” but for Americans it’s more “Might lose my job, can’t find work, how will I pay mortgage healthcare and credit card debts”.

Racism is America’s kryptonite. It breeds complacency and a loser mindset. It’s always another group’s fault America is failing. Cry and whine about “cheating” to duck ownership of their own deficiencies and dumb undisciplined choices. Demand self esteem points with cheap talk. Stunted worldview.

The US is losing the contest for the 21st century because Americans keep thinking it’s a China vs US direct power match when the actual contest is China’s standing with the rest of the world vs the US’s. The farcical self harming plays will continue until Americans realize this.

The good and bad of Trump ultimately is that he’s a fantasist. He will be most susceptible to changing his mind when one fantasy sold to him by one advisor doesn’t pan out and he’s looking for someone else to give him a new fantasy to grandstand fake victory narratives with.

Don’t know what the big deal is with the paperclip AI doom allegory (paperclip AI is told its purpose is to make paperclips so starts turning everything into paperclips including humans) we already have this with the moneyMAX pricevalueMAXXX FINANCEMAXIMUM liberal market economy.

So many things are possible if people just acknowledge liberal economics is not normatively neutral and not the only way to run an economy.

It is as true in politics as personal life that the ego motivated narcissists who think all aspects of reality are about their self esteem and social position don’t understand how real human relationships work and thus tend to make a giant mess of things.

Wonder if Americans are going to do a Germany in WW1 thing where they were convinced they were winning the war all the way to the last day.

My gut check after the most recent development is that they’ve decided to go with the “we will break you check this out” playbook. They’re tightening the vice gradually but assuredly. We’re probably looking at a drastically different negotiating position by the end of this week.

People who understand reality doesn’t care about their feelings will make it through this inflection alright. People who think reality is obliged to coddle their feelings and is a big meanie poopoohead for denying them are ngmi. This is my magnum opus thesis for the 21st century.

People are going to be so surprised when the serious companies quietly 10x productivity with task tailored AI tools while everyone is still fighting over fictional AI god chatbot slop.

People whose views of China are trapped in the 2010s won’t be able to absorb the message that China is sending right now. “This isn’t the past. If you want to be difficult you’re not worth the trouble. You’re not special anymore. We can do without you if we have to”.

Been reading Yu Yongding’s commentary for years. His 2025 macro guidance report for China, inclusive of trade war considerations, is the best I’ve read. Also addresses concept level policy and economic debates along the way (some renowned pundits caught strays) H/t @moatlesscapital.bsky.social

If someone submits arguments about who will bear cost of tariff adjustments and doesn’t know what “elasticities” are then they don’t know enough economics to have a serious opinion. This is how you end up with a cacaphony saying China would lose during round one of the trade war only for👇🏻to happen.

Trump’s once in a century fumble against China is what happens when you let cheerleaders and copium dealers control your intellectual culture for a generation. The “free” media was the actual echo chamber.

Another angle those who think China should be be eager to make deal overlook is that Trump wants to symbolically show he made China heel to an abusive relationship. What message does that send to the rest of the world? How does that affect China’s future diplomacy and geostrategic positioning?

Once the dust finally settles for Trade War 2 the most difficult thing for MAGAtards to accept by far will be that it was their own delusional bravado that destroyed the very glories they were trying to preserve.

A huge overlooked factor in round two of Trump’s trade war is that in round one America had low inflation whereas round two is happening after a Covid inflation shock that’s still not resolved. Trump is playing more aggressively with a *much* weaker hand this time around.

Huawei independently speed running to advanced node fabbing would be pretty shocking tbqh and a massive flex. But one way to make sense of it is even if yields are worse than SMIC’s, at large volumes they could be saving money not paying SMIC’s premium. Wrote the below in 2022.

Just occurred to me there’s a good chance some local govt in China is going to try a “buy houses for patriotism now is the time to support the national economy in the trade war” campaign to try to get people who were waiting for prices to bottom to open their wallets and help clear unsold inventory.

The irrigation channels of an economy is its transit system.

Anyone thinking Xi will show Trump mercy is forgetting China’s pitch to other countries is “you can only count on us now for global trade order”. Why would they undermine their own sale pitch when Trump is giving them such a good opportunity? If they must show mercy it will be on their own timeline.

You do not gain leverage by interfering with someone trying to hang themselves. You gain leverage when they beg you to help them cut the rope they put around their own necks. Olive branches are valuable when the other side knows gratitude. Do not waste them on those who won’t appreciate them.

Isn’t it so ironic that Trump Trade War 1.0 ended with the start of semiconductor export bans against China and Trump Trade War 2.0 starts with Trump exempting Chinese semiconductor imports from his embargo level tariffs 🤔

Supremely ironic to me that people who always say “China should boost consumption to reduce trade surplus” are also now saying “they can’t replace US demand tariffs will bring China to its knees”. Either China does or does not have domestic demand that can soak up export surplus.

Do nothing win isn’t just a joke meme. It’s 道.

During the engagement era lots of Americans only cared about China as an example of American magnanimity. The credit they claim for China’s success is in its subtext a belief that they have right to assert ownership over China. “They should be grateful” is master slave morality.

Rage is not power in Chinese culture. It’s why dealing with China through rage antics never works.

Makes my head spin to think we might be converging on a timeline where by the time China announces it’s completed development for a commercial use EUV scanner nobody will care anymore because the US-China competition for the 21st century will have already been decided.

One of the most important overlooked strategic benefits of a complete self sufficient world leading tech stack for China is if you were a developing country you used to worry about exclusion by the US on critical tech if you hugged China too close and now you know you’re not giving anything up.

Just occurred to me that another way we get a tariff walk back is if Congress intervenes or Democrats succeed at using lawfare to freeze their implementation Trump might find a political offramp by simply scapegoating others for getting in his way while he does a silent retreat.

Trump is basically 吕布 but a lot weaker on the battlefield.

Trump is the first hyper-real president. If you understand what this is and means then you’ll understand why any exit from any position is possible for him and how he will go about the process of making that happen.

If bond market signals are what team Trump is most sensitive to and their theory for a grand restructuring of the US economy was to deflate USD that tells us 1) They didn’t think through how their theory would affect bond rates 2) Tariffs aren’t likely to hold if bond rates continue climb.

There are two ways to unlearn stupid. Talk less and study more or fuck around and find out. One of these hurts the ego more than the soul. The other can sometimes get you killed.

The double irony of this incoming recession is that because it’s not a liquidity crisis but a collapse of real factors it’s going to be wayyy more painful, but because the cause is from a very visible political edict the solution will actually be quite straightforward.