House Model Update: 🔵 DEM: 233 (+18) 🔴 GOP: 202 (-18) - December 21, 2025 - (Seat change with 2024 Election) Full article available for Substack subscribers here -> open.substack.com/pub/usapolli...

Latest model update and brief look at recent polling will be up on the Substack tomorrow morning! usapolling.substack.com

Trump Approval Polling: Disapprove: 60% Approve: 39% AtlasIntel / Dec 19, 2025

Trump Net-Approval On: Immigration: -16% Safeguarding Democracy: -21% China/US Competition: -21% Economy/Jobs: -25% Healthcare: -35% National Debt: -36% AtlasIntel / Dec 19, 2025

Support For: Subsidies For Clean Energy: 60% Reinstating Roe v. Wade: 57% Tax Hikes On The Rich: 57% Legalize Weed: 53% Affirmative Action: 48% Recognize Palestine: 47% Withdraw From Paris Accords: 38% Repeal Obamacare: 33% Withdraw From NATO: 26% AtlasIntel / Dec 19, 2025

Support For US Financial Support For Israel: Oppose: 62% Support: 20% Unsure: 18% AtlasIntel / Dec 19, 2025

"Do you have a positive or negative image of Donald Trump" Negative: 60% (+4) Positive: 38% (-4) AtlasIntel / Dec 19, 2025 (% Change With Nov 2025)

Net-Approval Of: Rubio: -16% Bessent: -17% Gabbard: -18% RFK Jr: -23% Hegseth: -24% Lutnick: -24% Noem: -29% Patel: -34% Bondi: -41% AtlasIntel / Dec 19, 2025

"The Democratic Party is facing a crisis of leadership" Agree: 79% Disagree: 16% AtlasIntel / Dec 19, 2025

"Democrats don't know how to effectively oppose Trump's agenda" Agree: 70% Disagree: 22% AtlasIntel / Dec 19, 2025

"Democrats' woke discourse has gone too far" Agree: 49% Disagree: 49% AtlasIntel / Dec 19, 2025

"Trump acts like a dictator" Agree: 56% Disagree: 43% AtlasIntel / Dec 19, 2025

Democratic Presidential Polling: Newsom: 35% AOC: 16% Buttigieg: 15% Harris: 8% Shapiro: 6% Beshear: 6% Walz: 4% Booker: 3% Whitmer: 2% Khanna: 2% AtlasIntel / December 19, 2025

Generic Ballot Polling: 🔵 Democrats: 54% 🔴 Republicans: 38% AtlasIntel / December 19, 2025

"Who do you trust more to handle..." Environment - 🔵D +31 Healthcare - 🔵D +24 Economic Inequality - 🔵D +22 Education - 🔵D +18 Trade/Tariffs - 🔵D +17 Jobs - 🔵D +13 Inflation/Cost of Living - 🔵D +12 Foreign - 🔵D +12 Taxes - 🔵D +10 Immigration - 🔵D +7 Crime - 🔴 R +1 AtlasIntel / December 19, 2025

> Be Elise Stefanik > Be promised a job at the UN > Resign from the House > Don't get that job > Run for governor of New York > Drop out of the race for governor > Give up

Trust in the Criminal Justice System: Very Little/Some: 79% A Great Deal/Quite A Lot: 21% YouGov / Nov 24, 2025

"Should the government release all of its files from the investigation of Jeffrey Epstein?" All: Yes: 81% No: 5% Yes Among: Harris Voters: 92% Trump Voters: 74% Democrats: 92% Independents: 78% Republicans: 73% YouGov / Nov 24, 2025

"Do you think Trump is trying to cover up Jeffrey Epstein's crimes?" Yes: 50% No: 29% Unsure: 22% YouGov / Nov 24, 2025

"Donald Trump is..." Not Honest and Trustworthy: 52% Honest and Trustworthy: 32% YouGov / Dec 15, 2025

Trust in the Department of Justice (DOJ): Very Little/Some: 76% A Great Deal/Quite A Lot: 24% YouGov / Dec 15, 2025

Anyways, I'm upgrading my theory from "Trump is a pedophile who trafficked kids" to "He killed kids to hide the evidence"

There's a brave FBI agent out there who should release the full unredacted Epstein Files

There's entire sections of these files that are just entirely blacked out pages lmao

The entire grand jury document for Epstein is redacted, lmfaoooooo bro

Trump Approval Polling: Approve: 50% Disapprove: 49% RMG / Dec 18, 2025 (Republican Pollster)

Trump Approval Polling: Disapprove: 53% Approve: 45% Rasmussen / Dec 18, 2025 (Republican Pollster)

Missouri - Support For: Eliminate taxes on healthcare: 76% Prohibiting the use of AI to under 18s: 74% Raising the minimum wage: 63% Extending Obamacare subsidies: 55% OnMessage / Dec 11, 2025

22% of people say the best years of their lives is their 20s

12% of people say 10-19 years old was the worst years of their lives

There's going to be a "De-Trumpification" program when he's gone like Germany had to de-nazify all the buildings

"Who do you trust more to handle..." Immigration - 🔴 R +26 Crime - 🔴 R +19 Foreign Conflicts - 🔴 R +13 Economy - 🔴 R +4 Corruption - 🔵 D +2 Cost of Living - 🔵 D +5 Education - 🔵 D +13 Healthcare - 🔵 D +20 Quantus / Dec 16, 2025 (Republican Pollster)

Voters Views On (X): National Economic Conditions: Not Good/Poor: 72% Excellent/Good: 28% Personal Financial Situation: Holding Steady: 45% Falling Behind: 44% Getting Ahead: 11% Beacon/Shaw / Dec 15, 2025

"Do you think (X) is focused on the right or wrong things?" Trump - (Today): Wrong things: 58% Right things: 41% Biden - (2021): Wrong things: 54% Right things: 40% Beacon/Shaw / Dec 15, 2025

"What do you want to see Trump pay MORE attention to?" High prices: 42% Healthcare: 19% Jobs/Employment: 12% Immigration: 7% Budget Deficit: 6% Tariffs: 5% Crime: 4% Foreign Policy: 2% Beacon/Shaw / Dec 15, 2025

"What do you want to see Trump pay LESS attention to?" Immigration: 30% Tariffs: 28% Foreign Policy: 17% Budget Deficit: 7% Healthcare: 5% Jobs/Employment: 5% High Prices: 4% Crime: 3% Beacon/Shaw / Dec 15, 2025

*Rolls up a newspaper* Bad! Bad graph!

Generic Ballot Polling: 🔴 Republican: 44% 🔵 Democratic: 42% Emerson / Dec 15, 2025

Generic Ballot Polling: 🔵 Democratic: 50% 🔴 Republican: 46% Hart Research / Dec 8, 2025

California - Governor Polling: 🔴 Hilton: 18% 🔵 Swalwell: 17% 🔴 Bianco: 17% 🔵 Porter: 13% 🔵 Steyer: 6% 🔵 Becerra: 3% 🔵 Villaraigosa: 3% FM3 Research / Dec 7, 2025

Generic Presidential Polling: 🔵 Progressive DEM: 43% 🔴 MAGA GOP: 42% 🔴 Moderate GOP: 48% 🔵 Progressive DEM: 36% 🔵 Moderate DEM: 47% 🔴 MAGA GOP: 38% 🔴 Moderate GOP: 44% 🔵 Moderate DEM: 39% Emerson / Dec 15, 2025

Arizona - Governor Polling: 🔵 Hobbs: 51% 🔴 Robson: 30% 🔵 Hobbs: 51% 🔴 Biggs: 32% NextGen / Dec 17, 2025

Ohio - Governor Polling: 🔴 Ramaswamy: 45% 🔵 Acton: 43% T. Roosevelt Action / Dec 8, 2025 (Pro hunting group commissioned this poll)

Maryland - 6th House DEM Polling: McClain Delaney: 50% Trone: 33% Hart Research / Dec 16, 2025 (Delaney Internal)

Generic Ballot Polling: DEM: 43% GOP: 41% Quantus / Dec 16, 2025 (Republican Pollster)

Trump Approval Polling: Rasmussen - (Republican Pollster): Disapprove: 53% Approve: 46% Quantus - (Republican Pollster): Disapprove: 53% Approve: 44% Emerson: Disapprove: 50% Approve: 41%

Confidence In ICE: Little/Some: 66% A Lot/A Great Deal: 34% YouGov / Dec 15, 2025

Support For Requiring Tourists To Disclose any Social Media, Telephone Numbers or Email Addresses Going Back 5+ Years, As Well As Face, Fingerprint, DNA, and Iris Biometrics: Oppose: 48% Support: 32% Unsure: 20% YouGov / Dec 15, 2025