🇦🇺 announced today that it'll end anti-dumping measures on 🇨🇳 stainless steel sinks. 🇨🇳 will be pleased. It could also be a sign that we'll soon see 🇨🇳 take concrete steps to remove enduring trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 live 🦞. www.industry.gov.au/anti-dumping... www.industry.gov.au/anti-dumping...

🇦🇺’s Anti-Dumping Commission delays to 4 Dec advice on removing measures on 🇨🇳 steel sinks. Delay apparently caused by late submissions & “complexity of matters raised.” 🇨🇳 likely watching closely & could link issue to removal of restrictions on 🇦🇺 🦞. www.industry.gov.au/sites/defaul...

🇦🇺+🇨🇳 leaders have met on the sidelines of the G20 & 🇦🇺 looks set to remove some anti-dumping measures on 🇨🇳 sinks. What do these developments mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations & the long-awaited end of 🇨🇳’s trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 🦞? BCB in brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

The Albanese government has ruled out 🇦🇺 tariffs on 🇨🇳 EVs & other restrictions on 🇨🇳 car technology. But what would a Coalition government do if they win the 2025 federal election? beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-predic...

🇦🇺+🇨🇳 trade/commerce ministers met yesterday in Shanghai. No mention of 🦞 in 🇨🇳's readout of the meeting, despite losses of $1.9 billion for 🇦🇺 industry since 2020. What does the meeting mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations and 🇦🇺 🦞 + 🥩? BCB in brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

Lots of talk about the potential end of 🇨🇳’s economic coercion campaign against 🇦🇺. Yet the latest trade data shows 🇦🇺’s flatlining copper ores & concentrates exports to 🇨🇳. Is 🇨🇳 still imposing trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 copper ores & concentrates? beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-data-c...

Beijing has fired back hard at 🇦🇺’s criticism of 🇨🇳’s human rights violations in Xinjiang and Tibet. What’s likely to happen next? And what does this diplomatic dispute mean for the stabilisation of the 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relationship? BCB in brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

Beijing to Canberra and Back (16 Sep to 13 Oct 2024): 1️⃣ Is it too soon to declare the end of 🇨🇳’s economic coercion against 🇦🇺? 2️⃣ Why has 🇨🇳 responded so quietly to the 🦞 news? 3️⃣ Will 🇦🇺 now unwind anti-dumping measures or approve a 🇨🇳 investment? beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/australias...

🇦🇺 MPs and senators are visiting 🇨🇳 on the first parliamentary delegation since November 2019. What’s the significance of the visit and what does it mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations? BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

The 🇦🇺 parliamentary delegation to 🇨🇳 is slated to visit a solar & wind manufacturer in Beijing. No details of which firm, but I wonder if we'll see 🇨🇳 companies like Beijing Energy Int. or Trina Solar get their sizeable investments in 🇦🇺 approved? www.linkedin.com/posts/jerome...

Oddly, the 🇦🇺 PM's 🦞 news wasn’t mentioned in the 🇨🇳 gov leader meeting readout, 🇨🇳 MFA didn’t engage much on the issue & many major 🇨🇳 news outlets said little to nothing about it. Doesn’t necessarily mean the 🇦🇺 PM was getting ahead of himself. But it's prima facie peculiar.

🇦🇺 Prime Minister Albanese today announced an agreement w/ 🇨🇳 Premier Li for Beijing to remove its politically motivated trade restriction on 🇦🇺 🦞. What does this mean for 🦞 exporters, 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 trade ties & the broader bilat relationship? BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

🇦🇺 Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been in 🇨🇳, 🇦🇺 has confirmed that it won’t impose tariffs on 🇨🇳 EVs, and an 🇦🇺 navy vessel has transited the Taiwan Strait with 🇯🇵 + 🇳🇿. What does all this mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 ties? BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

🇦🇺’s + 🇨🇳’s foreign ministers meet face-to-face for the 7th time since 2022 & 🇦🇺 signs up to a 🇺🇸-led push to create critical minerals supply chains that don’t rely on 🇨🇳. What’re the implications for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations? BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

🇨🇳's Trina Solar is planning a $400 million battery project in Western 🇦🇺. One to watch for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 ties. 🇨🇳 has long complained about the treatment of its businesses. & Trina Solar has been linked to forced labour + project likely to attract 🇦🇺 scrutiny. www.energy-storage.news/trina-solar-...

Beijing to Canberra and Back (8-28 July 2024): 1️⃣ 🇦🇺’s 🍷 exports to 🇨🇳 surge (alcoholic beverages exports in May 2024 were circa ✖️23 the value in May 2023) 2️⃣ When will 🇨🇳 lift restrictions on 🇦🇺 🦞? 3️⃣ Debating the meaning of 🇦🇺’s one-China policy beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/wine-expor...

Beijing to Canberra and Back (weeks of 17-ish June to 7 July): 1️⃣ The long-delayed but still likely removal of 🇨🇳’s restrictions on 🇦🇺 🦞 2️⃣ 🇨🇳 spreads more disinformation about 🇦🇺’s one-China policy 3️⃣ 🇨🇳 diplomats in 🇦🇺 amplify anti-🇹🇼 messages beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/live-lobst...

🇦🇺 (w/ 🇺🇸, 🇬🇧, 🇨🇦, 🇳🇿, 🇩🇪, 🇰🇷 & 🇯🇵) has issued an advisory about 🇨🇳’s cyberattacks. What’s the significance of this advisory and what does it mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations? BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

Beijing to Canberra and Back (3 to 16-ish June): 1️⃣ Wrap up of 🇨🇳 Premier Li Qiang’s 🇦🇺 trip 2️⃣ 🇨🇳 likely to remove trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 🦞 in coming weeks 3️⃣ Does 🇦🇺 have a de facto ban on 🇨🇳 investments in its critical minerals miners & refiners? beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/the-premie...

What’s the significance of 🇨🇳 Premier Li Qiang’s visit to 🇦🇺 later this week & what’s likely to happen next in the 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relationship? BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

Beijing to Canberra and Back (13 May to 2 June): 1️⃣ 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relationship stabilisation despite drama 2️⃣ 🇦🇺’s 🇨🇳 choice on 🇺🇦 gets sharper as 🇨🇳 businesses continue to aid 🇷🇺’s war effort 3️⃣ The Albanese government’s deceptive politicisation of 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 ties beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/stabilisat...

🇦🇺 has ordered 🇨🇳 + 🇨🇳-linked entities & individuals to divest from the rare-earth elements miner Northern Minerals. What does it say about 🇦🇺’s approach to 🇨🇳 + critical minerals & what does it mean for bilateral ties? BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

The implications for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 ties of 🇨🇳’s removal of more trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 red meat exporters & 🇨🇳’s latest effort to spread disinformation about 🇦🇺’s engagement w/ 🇹🇼. BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

The bathymetric profile of 🇨🇳’s seaboard via Geoscience Australia. Gives a sense of why 🇨🇳 might want to get its SSBNs on Hainan to the deeper waters of the northern South China Sea & why 🇦🇺’s AUKUS SSNs might be used to (among others things) help track 🇨🇳’s SSBNs there.

Beijing to Canberra and Back (29 April to 12 May): 1️⃣ 🇦🇺’s optimism about the removal of 🇨🇳’s last two trade restrictions on 🦞 & 🥩 2️⃣ Moderate longer-term expectations about 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations 3️⃣ The uncompelling economic case for 🇨🇳 in the CPTPP beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/australias...

A group of 🇦🇺 federal parliamentarians are headed to 🇹🇼 for the 20 May presidential inauguration. Here’s my assessment of why it matters & what it means for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

🇨🇳 has responded to the Four Corners episode: It hopes 🇦🇺 media outlets will "take concrete actions to keep bilateral rels on a steady & sound course". Here's my assessment of what this latest story of 🇨🇳’s transnational repression means for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 ties: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

Today is the last opportunity to make a submission to the Senate inquiry into 🇦🇺's support for 🇺🇦: www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentar...

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has joined criticisms of 🇨🇳’s dangerous intercept of an 🇦🇺 helicopter. Meanwhile, more details have emerged about past 🇨🇳 cyberattacks on 🇦🇺 parliamentarians. What does this mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations? BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

"Every month, 🇨🇳 is exporting over $300 million worth of dual-use products identified ... as 'high priority' items necessary for 🇷🇺’s weapons production." Yet 🇦🇺 still hasn't joined 🇺🇸, 🇬🇧 & 🇪🇺 sanctions against 🇨🇳 companies aiding 🇷🇺's war effort. carnegieendowment.org/politika/92367

Beijing to Canberra and Back (8-28 April): 1️⃣ 🇨🇳’s last trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 🦞&🥩 likely to fall (in weeks/months) 2️⃣ 🇦🇺’s response to 🇺🇸 effort to force 🇨🇳 company ByteDance to divest from TikTok 3️⃣ What are 🇦🇺’s options if 🇺🇸 bans TikTok? beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/chinas-las...

🇦🇺 Treasurer to announce “major overhaul” of foreign investment framework. 🇦🇺 gov. is “worried about losing control of supply chains … & losing resilience where there is the capacity for interference." Even tougher times ahead for 🇨🇳 investments in 🇦🇺. www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04...

🇹🇼🤷‍♂️

Beijing to Canberra and Back (25 Mar. to 7 Apr.): 1️⃣ 🇨🇳 removes 🍷 duties + trade restrictions on 🦞 & 🥩 to go 2️⃣ 🇦🇺 likely to maintain cautious 🇨🇳 policy in 2024 3️⃣ What would 🇦🇺’s 🇨🇳 policy look like if the Coalition wins the next federal election? beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/trade-rela...

🇦🇺, 🇬🇧 & 🇺🇸 “are considering cooperation w/ 🇯🇵 on AUKUS Pillar II.” & 🇺🇸 DepSec of State Campbell says AUKUS submarines could be deployed “in cross-strait circumstances.” How does 🇨🇳 see all this & what does it mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 ties? BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

🇦🇺 political divisions on sanctions against 🇨🇳 & 🇮🇱: ➡️ The Coalition & Greens want to sanction 🇨🇳 officials & entities Vs. Labor unwillingness ➡️ The Greens want to sanction the "entire 🇮🇱 war cabinet" Vs. Labor & Coalition unwillingness/support for 🇮🇱 parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/dow...

An 🇮🇳 intelligence officer recounting apparent high-level discussions about “lessons learned” from 🇸🇦’s murder of Jamal Khashoggi: “One senior [intelligence] officer [in PM Modi’s office] said in a meeting that if Saudis can do this, why not us?” www.theguardian.com/world/2024/a...

Even Xinhua is now promoting the prospects for 🇦🇺 wine in 🇨🇳: english.news.cn/20240404/78c...

A bipartisan 🇦🇺 parliamentary delegation will head to 🇹🇼 on Sunday. The same day, 🇦🇺 will join the 🇺🇸, 🇯🇵 & 🇵🇭 for joint naval exercises in the South China Sea. How will Beijing react & what will these developments mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations? BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

From the PJCIS Review of 🇦🇺's Foreign Influence Transparency Scheme (FITS): "The statistics of activity under the FITS to date show that ‘…the vast majority of registrations do cover entities linked with 🇨🇳 ... with 130 registered activities currently’." apo.org.au/node/326160

"Xi Jinping’s Taiwan policy arguably exhibits a degree of impatience not seen since the later days of Jiang Zemin’s reign, or even since Mao’s last efforts to test the waters of military invasion, culminating in the 1958 Quemoy crisis." press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/pr...

🇨🇳 has removed its duties on 🇦🇺 bottled wine. What does it mean for bilateral ties & what’s coming next in the 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relationship? BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

Two Australian icons

🇦🇺 has in the last two days expressed “serious concerns” about 🇨🇳’s actions in the South China Sea & cyberspace. The WTO also took issue with 🇦🇺’s anti-dumping measures on 🇨🇳 wind towers. What does all this mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations? BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

Beijing to Canberra and Back (4-24 March 2024): 1️⃣ Key takeaways from the 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 foreign ministerial meeting 2️⃣ Next steps in 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relationship repair (trade restrictions to go & more high-level diplomacy) 3️⃣ Are 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations stabilising or normalising? beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/a-minister...

🇦🇺’s Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) reached a more than 6-month high after 🇨🇳’s interim draft determination on wine duties. Seems likely to bump up again in the coming days w/ 🇨🇳 all but certain to announce plans for removal of wine duties before 31 March. NB I don’t hold TWE.

What's the significance of the 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 foreign ministers' meeting and what're the likely next steps in bilateral relationship repair? BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

🇨🇳’s Ministry of Commerce has produced an interim draft determination outlining a proposed removal of 🇨🇳’s duties on 🇦🇺 wine. What’s the likely timeline for the removal of the wine duties & what does it mean for the 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relationship? BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

Beijing to Canberra and Back (19 Feb. to 3 Mar.): 1️⃣ Forthcoming visits to 🇦🇺 by 🇨🇳’s Foreign Minister & Premier 2️⃣ An alternative to sanctioning 🇨🇳 officials 3️⃣ 🇦🇺’s merchandise trade w/ 🇹🇼 in 2023 (⬇️ but 🇹🇼 is 🇦🇺’s no. 5 goods export market) beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/more-diplo...

Former Liberal Party candidate & Melbourne businessman Di Sanh Duong has been jailed for attempted foreign interference on behalf of the Chinese Communist Party. How is 🇨🇳 likely to react & what does it mean for the 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relationship? beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...