There Aren't 30 Good Enough Closers. I blended four projection systems to evaluate reliever talent, then looked at five years of closer data to see what happens when teams go past the elite tier. brendantuma.substack.com/p/there-aren...

Max Meyer gets the Rockies in Miami in his first start of 2026. Cody Ponce gets them in Toronto a day later.

Late-round and buzzy SPs to circle before your draft Mike Burrows Braxton Ashcraft Ryan Weathers Jack Leiter Cody Ponce Ryne Nelson Max Meyer Cade Cavalli Mick Abel Matthew Liberatore Parker Messick

Young arms without an immediate rotation job to keep an eye on early in the year: Connelly Early Didier Fuentes Parker Messick Robby Snelling Logan Henderson Zebby Matthews Payton Tolle River Ryan Brandon Sproat Ian Seymour Christian Scott Jonah Tong ....Ben Brown? (ducks)

There's something funny about the Rockies' starting five being grouped together at the very bottom of my sheet. (This factors in the Coors strikeout/ratio penalty.)

Didier Fuentes' path to an early-season opportunity with the Braves: Sale, Strider, López, Holmes, and Elder are the likely starting five. IL: Schwellenbach, Waldrep Martín Pérez roster decision due Saturday. Fuentes is already on the 40-man. JR Ritchie isn't.

The hardest part of fantasy baseball isn't the draft. It's not reacting to the first month of the season like it's the last. brendantuma.substack.com/p/how-to-rea...

Things worth reacting to early this fantasy season: Injuries Playing time Stuff changes for fringe starters That's basically it. brendantuma.substack.com/p/how-to-rea...

The more you study for fantasy baseball, the less patient you become. It feels like you know how the story ends, so you expect it to resolve on your timeline. I wrote about my new approach this year. brendantuma.substack.com/p/how-to-rea...

Things worth reacting to early this fantasy season: Injuries Playing time Stuff changes for fringe starters That's basically it. brendantuma.substack.com/p/how-to-rea...

Any Strat-O-Matic or MLB Showdown fans reading?

The more you study for fantasy baseball, the less patient you become. It feels like you know how the story ends, so you expect it to resolve on your timeline. I wrote about my new approach this year. brendantuma.substack.com/p/how-to-rea...

This past Friday, I was part of the layoffs at Underdog. I wrote about my journey to landing that dream job. And also what comes next: brendantuma.substack.com/p/saying-goo...

This past Friday, I was part of the layoffs at Underdog. I wrote about my journey to landing that dream job. And also what comes next: brendantuma.substack.com/p/saying-goo...

I wrote about 6 pitchers who overhauled their arsenals in 2025 Useful context for evaluating new pitch hype this spring brendantuma.substack.com/p/new-tricks...

I wrote about 6 pitchers who overhauled their arsenals in 2025 Useful context for evaluating new pitch hype this spring brendantuma.substack.com/p/new-tricks...

Fantasy baseball doesn’t directly reward the best skills. It rewards outcomes. And two of the four SP categories are ratio stats driven by variance. brendantuma.substack.com/p/volume-is-...

New piece on pitcher archetypes and why volume isn’t always safe in fantasy baseball. brendantuma.substack.com/p/volume-is-...

Pitcher value swings wildly because it’s concentrated in fewer, more volatile categories. Hitters spread risk across five. A principles-first look at what roto scoring actually rewards: brendantuma.substack.com/p/volume-is-...

ERA and WHIP are volatile. And a mediocre 180 IP season can hurt you more than a risky 120 IP one. That changed how I’m approaching starting pitching this year. Tomorrow on Substack.

When it comes to outfielders in fantasy baseball, "best available” often matters less than fit. The position is deep enough to support multiple paths to building a team, but only if you’re confident in what your roster needs at that point of the draft. brendantuma.substack.com/p/outfield-p...

Outfield hasn’t fundamentally evolved in fantasy, but the top has pulled away. My full 2026 OF tiers break down what that means for draft strategy, risk tolerance, and roster construction. Live now ⬇️ brendantuma.substack.com/p/2026-fanta...

Outfield hasn’t fundamentally evolved in fantasy, but the top has pulled away. My full 2026 OF tiers break down what that means for draft strategy, risk tolerance, and roster construction. Live now ⬇️ brendantuma.substack.com/p/2026-fanta...

New 2026 outfield tiers: • Elite separation at the top • Strategic freedom everywhere else brendantuma.substack.com/p/2026-fanta...

Third Base Tiers * J-Ram's legendary run * Is Caminero next? * Austin Riley bounces back * Maikel Garcia belief * Royce Lewis ...? brendantuma.substack.com/p/drafting-t...

Third Base Tiers * J-Ram's legendary run * Is Caminero next? * Austin Riley bounces back * Maikel Garcia belief * Royce Lewis ...? brendantuma.substack.com/p/drafting-t...

Third base in 2026 has a real tier cliff. You don’t need to win the position. You just can’t afford to fall behind. Full 3B preview on Substack tomorrow morning. brendantuma.substack.com

After studying Raleigh, Posey, Realmuto, Contreras, and Salvy, there are only three viable paths to a difference-making catcher year. Without them, the position becomes about stability, not upside. Full catcher preview is live on Substack. brendantuma.substack.com/p/drafting-c...

The First Base Problem. Why the position isn’t what it used to be, and how to draft it in 2026. Now live on Substack. brendantuma.substack.com/p/the-first-...

The First Base Problem. Why the position isn’t what it used to be, and how to draft it in 2026. Now live on Substack. brendantuma.substack.com/p/the-first-...

Shortstop preview! brendantuma.substack.com/p/shortstop-...

Big new shortstop preview drops tomorrow on Substack. * Why the position looks deep but isn’t * The tier cliff that defines drafts * What every “legendary” SS season has in common * Player-by-player writeups with visuals Subscribe now so it hits your inbox first.

Baseball + fantasy people on Substack, any tips for growing there? It’s where all my writing lives, but I know I’m underusing the platform.

Usually around now, I’m looking for “this year’s Geraldo Perdomo.” This offseason, I took a different approach. I studied what last year’s league-winning hitters actually had in common, and built a framework from there. brendantuma.substack.com/p/what-2025s...

Usually around now, I’m looking for “this year’s Geraldo Perdomo.” This offseason, I took a different approach. I studied what last year’s league-winning hitters actually had in common, and built a framework from there. brendantuma.substack.com/p/what-2025s...

The good old days don’t announce themselves. I wrote about learning to notice them in real time. Happy holidays. brendantuma.substack.com/p/living-in-...

The good old days don’t announce themselves. I wrote about learning to notice them in real time. Happy holidays. brendantuma.substack.com/p/living-in-...

Notable SP who didn't pitch in 2025. Anyone missing? Gerrit Cole Grayson Rodriguez Jared Jones Shane McClanahan Joe Musgrove Kutter Crawford Reynaldo López Gavin Stone River Ryan Braxton Garrett DJ Herz Christian Scott Patrick Sandoval John Means Cody Bradford Jordan Montgomery Luis Medina

Devin Williams had a 55% strand rate last season. Lowest by a qualified RP since 2022. 10th-lowest in a full season since 2000!

The only 2025 pitches with a worse run value than Ryan Helsley’s four-seamer were all thrown by Colorado Rockies arms.

Free Agency Relief Pitcher Preview Really happy with how it turned out! brendantuma.substack.com/p/202526-fre...

Taylor Ward is a funny profile. He became more patient than ever… and ended up with the 2nd-highest called-strike rate in the league. Average whiffs, great chase rate… still a 26.4 K%.

@michaelrosen.bsky.social hey Michael, we chatted briefly earlier this year. Was wondering how I could best contact you with some follow-up questions?

Free agent SPs... * Cease’s command roller coaster * Framber’s late-season unraveling * Ranger’s kitchen-sink approach * King’s April peak + injury wipeout * Woodruff reinventing himself * Imanaga’s WHIP magic? * Gallen’s K% dip Fantasy-first look is live! brendantuma.substack.com/p/202526-fre...

Free agency Substack posts: Hitters ✅ Starters ✅ Trying to get relievers done before the signings start rolling in All fantasy-first writeups, so we have a baseline before landing spots sway the value! brendantuma.substack.com/p/202526-fre...

I took a fantasy-first approach to writing about the top 10 hitters from this year's FA class: brendantuma.substack.com/p/202526-fre...

I wrote about the psychology of decision-making And why sticking to your plan is harder than it sounds. brendantuma.substack.com/p/the-analys...

5 of the 10 lowest league-wide batting averages ever have come since 2020. Home runs and steals are near all-time highs, but AVG remains near the floor. More on the hitting environment driving modern fantasy baseball: brendantuma.substack.com/p/no-stat-is...

The juiced ball. Sticky stuff. Rule changes. MLB has finally settled into a new era And for fantasy baseball, that means one thing: We finally have a macro edge again. Live now - my favorite piece of the year brendantuma.substack.com/p/no-stat-is...

I’ve been obsessed with the macro fantasy landscape ever since the juiced ball era. This week, I found more clarity than ever before. Live tomorrow: