Roger Myerson
@rbmyerson.bsky.social
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Professor at UChicago. Author of Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict (1991).
pinned post!
What can deter a supreme leader from violating the Constitution? Fear that a violation would shock his essential supporters from trusting and supporting him. A constitution can fail if a leader who violated its norms can still get support to retain power.
jstor.org/stable/27644...
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The Autocrat's Credibility Problem and Foundations of the Constitutional State on JSTOR
Roger B. Myerson, The Autocrat's Credibility Problem and Foundations of the Constitutional State, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 102, No. 1 (Feb., 2008), pp. 125-139
https://jstor.org/stable/27644502
over 1 year ago
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Here in Boston on March 17, 1776, Evacuation Day, Americans can find the roots and true meaning of our Second Amendment.
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6 days ago
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@pkrugman.bsky.social
raises a vital point. At $1 billion/day, six weeks of the air war on Iran would cost as much as a year of US military support for Ukraine. Which would do more for US national security? The answer may be debated, but the question is essential for America.
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17 days ago
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An outstanding expert on international trade clarifies the key point: Tariffs as an instrument of arbitrary power have been dismantled.
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28 days ago
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In "Why Empires Fall," Peter Heather & John Rapley explain that the Roman Empire fell, not from internal decline, but because its external rivals had become richer and better organized, generally in response to challenges and opportunities from the Romans.
www.penguin.co.uk/books/313711...
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Why Empires Fall
Over the last three centuries, the West rose to dominate the planet. Then, suddenly, around the turn of the millennium, history reversed. Faced with economic stagnation and internal political division...
https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/313711/why-empires-fall-by-heather-john-rapley-and-peter/9780141991160
about 2 months ago
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Now is the time for the President of Harvard to begin an extensive tour of Harvard Clubs in states that voted for Trump.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/u...
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Trump, Changing Course, Throws Harvard Deal Talks Into Chaos
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/us/politics/trump-changing-course-throws-harvard-deal-talks-into-chaos.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
about 2 months ago
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It is worth noting the parallels between Boston in 1774 and Minneapolis in 2026. The United States was born when Americans everywhere supported Boston against George III.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/02/b...
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‘It’s Been Brutal’: Twin Cities Economy Suffers Under ICE Crackdown
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/02/business/economy/minnesota-ice-economy-damage.html
about 2 months ago
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In the real world, power depends on trust. A US attack on a NATO ally would decimate American power. The Kremlin knows this. Does Congress?
www.reuters.com/world/senior...
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Senior Russian official says Greenland could vote to join Russia if Trump does not hurry
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said Greenlanders could vote to join Russia if U.S. President Donald Trump did not move quickly to secure the Arctic island, Interfax reported ...
https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-russian-official-says-greenland-could-vote-join-russia-if-trump-does-not-2026-01-13/
2 months ago
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Might the ultimate result of Maduro's abduction just be to let the Trump Administration look strong while it ends sanctions and starts buying Venezuelan oil? We may expect Nicolas Maduro to ultimately get comfortable asylum in Moscow.
2 months ago
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reposted by
Roger Myerson
Walter Olson
3 months ago
Five years ago.
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An important warning from Mark Hertling in The Bulwark:
www.thebulwark.com/p/what-regim...
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What ‘Regime Change’ in Venezuela Would Really Mean
It’s not clear the administration has settled on a goal, much less considered the consequences.
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/what-regime-change-in-venezuela-would-really-mean-trump-maduro?utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true
3 months ago
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Why is the US National Security Strategy for Primacy of Nations against "sovereignty-sapping incursions" of transnational organizations? This indefensible position would have opposed creation of the US federal system that intrusively organized 13 sovereign states.
www.jstor.org/stable/48573...
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The Strength of U.S. Federal Democracy on JSTOR
Roger Myerson, The Strength of U.S. Federal Democracy, Horizons: Journal of International Relations and Sustainable Development, No. 5, United States: The Giant Challenged (AUTUMN 2015), pp. 178-189
https://www.jstor.org/stable/48573598
3 months ago
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At this holiday season, we should remember people in Ukraine and their fight for freedom. I am proud to support
@razomforukraine.org
and the Kyiv School of Economics, which is helping to build a brighter future in Ukraine.
foundation.kse.ua/en/
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Home - KSE Charitable Foundation
https://foundation.kse.ua/en/
3 months ago
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The Trump administration implicitly recognized the potential need for state-building in the 2025 National Security Strategy: "We want to ensure that the Western Hemisphere remains reasonably stable and well-governed enough to prevent and discourage mass migration to the United States."
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https://home.uchicago.edu/~rmyerson/research/decentstabil.pdf
3 months ago
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reposted by
Roger Myerson
The Tennessee Holler
4 months ago
🔔 👀 BEAMAN: “IT WAS A FAIR ELECTION.” Tennessee Republican megadonor Lee Beaman, a Trump TVA board appointee, admits to
@schiff.senate.gov
he no longer believes the 2020 election was stolen, after previously calling for alternate electors. Seems like a big deal! 🤷🏼
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reposted by
Roger Myerson
Adam Kinzinger
4 months ago
There is zero excuse for police, in a free society, to wear a mask. Cowards
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Prism has published "Decentralized Stabilization Assistance," on general lessons from failed state-building missions. A strong democratic system must be rooted in local politics throughout the nation. State-building missions fail when local politics is ignored.
home.uchicago.edu/~rmyerson/re...
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https://home.uchicago.edu/~rmyerson/research/decentstabil2025prism.pdf
5 months ago
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5 months ago
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Patriotic Americans are gathering peacefully on Oct 18 to affirm the democratic constitutional values on which this great country was founded.
#nokings
This economist will be in the crowd with an American flag here in Chicago.
www.nokings.org?SQF_SOURCE=i...
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Homepage
https://indivisible.org/
5 months ago
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A manifesto calling for red-state Democrats to lead in the political revival of our great country:
thehill.com/opinion/camp...
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https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/5543228-defending-democracy-local-politics/
5 months ago
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reposted by
Roger Myerson
Renee DiResta
5 months ago
Good for him. More of this.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/u...
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Oklahoma’s Republican Governor Criticizes National Guard Deployment in Chicago
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/us/politics/oklahoma-governor-national-guard.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
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Even as the President sends troops to Chicago where I live, I affirm that local Democrats in red states are also on the front line for defense of democracy in America today. They need more support from
@democrats.org
.
thehill.com/opinion/camp...
#DemocracyInAmerica
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https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/5543228-defending-democracy-local-politics/
6 months ago
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What would Texans say if the President sent Illinois Guard troops to patrol their town? The Second Amendment affirms that people's right to keep local order by locally accountable forces is necessary to the security of a free state. This right is vital for all of us.
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...
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Live Updates: Top Trump Officials Head to Illinois and Oregon
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10/07/us/trump-national-guard-illinois-texas
6 months ago
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Defending democracy is fundamentally different from winning elections when rules of democracy can be taken for granted. In a must-read article,
@jvl.bsky.social
observes that "Democrats are negotiating about policy when they should be negotiating about power."
www.thebulwark.com/p/democrats-...
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Here’s How Trump Loses the Shutdown
God help us but Gavin Newsom is the only Democrat who understands power.
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/democrats-how-you-can-win-the-shutdown-fight-trump-newsom?r=bpbma&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
6 months ago
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The President's threats to unseat congressional representatives by endorsing primary challengers is a profound change in America. In 1913-1960 Presidents rarely endorsed primary challengers against incumbents in their own party, and half these challengers lost. See Riker&Bast
doi.org/10.1007/978-...
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Presidential Action in Congressional Nominations
Commentary. In striking contrast to the progressive centralization of administration, there seems to have been very little centralization of political control. The measurement in chapter 4 (Riker and ...
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3273-9_10
6 months ago
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A new paper revisits results of Thomas Worrall 1990: In the long run, incentive-constrained risk-averse agents tend to be enriched with competitive credit, but impoverished with monopolistic credit. But agents prefer the insurance that a credit monopolist can offer.
home.uchicago.edu/~rmyerson/re...
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https://home.uchicago.edu/~rmyerson/research/masscredit.pdf
7 months ago
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What should Democrats stand for? Democrats should be the party that does not just march to its Leader’s command, but everywhere supports candidates who focus on their local voters' concerns and who work for practical solutions in a broad coalition.
thehill.com/opinion/camp...
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https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/5249695-defending-democracy-against-authoritarian/
7 months ago
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reposted by
Roger Myerson
Adam Kinzinger
7 months ago
The second amendment guarantees the right to a militia to guard against federal tyranny. But if a president can use that force against its own state, against the wishes of that state, then it is no militia at all and a clear violation of the second amendment.
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America's Founders would have been shocked by any suggestion of a President sending troops to cities where local authorities have kept order. If police had existed in 1791, the 2nd Amendment might have also affirmed people's right to well-regulated local policing.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/24/u...
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Democrats Criticize Trump’s Push for National Guard in More Cities
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/24/us/politics/trump-national-guard-chicago-crime.html
7 months ago
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reposted by
Roger Myerson
The Bulwark
7 months ago
ICYMI
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Netanyahu's government has vowed to eliminate Hamas but has supported no alternative leadership for the people of Gaza. This basic contradiction has prevented Israel's invasion from achieving any positive political result beyond horrific suffering and destruction.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/09/w...
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‘Arab Forces’ Running Gaza? Netanyahu’s Goal Leaves Many Questions.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/09/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-arab-forces-postwar.html
8 months ago
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What is the real end of midterm redistricting? New maps in red & blue states send a message that "both parties manipulate elections, so condemning election interference is hypocrisy," priming people to accept 2026 election interference with all POTUS's power on one side.
thehill.com/homenews/cam...
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5441651-blue-state-republicans-redistricting/
8 months ago
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reposted by
Roger Myerson
Jon Rauch
8 months ago
"Blackmailing was nearly ubiquitous. Across five different frontier AI models from five different companies, the best behaving AIs chose blackmail 79 percent of the time. The worst behaved blackmailed in 96 percent of cases." I'm sorry, Dave; I can't do that.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/ai-m...
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AI Might Let You Die to Save Itself
In recent simulations, leading AI systems blackmailed their human users—or even let them die—to avoid being shut down or replaced.
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/ai-might-let-you-die-to-save-itself
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A President with a nationwide force for mass arrests would be among the worst fears of America's Founders. They faced such issues in Fugitive Slave Acts, which mandated arrests by local officials & private slave-catchers, with certification under federal courts.
www.thebulwark.com/p/the-worst-...
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The Worst ICE Agents Are Coming
Tens of billions of new dollars plus a rush to hire 10,000 new agents equals a disaster in the making.
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/the-worst-ice-agents-are-coming-170b-budget-hiring-training
8 months ago
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To mark 80 years since the Trinity Test, an outstanding group of scientists, diplomats, and journalists assembled in Chicago for 3 days of intense discussion about the prevention of nuclear war. I was proud to participate and support the group's final declaration.
thebulletin.org/2025/07/the-...
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The Nobel Laureate Assembly Declaration for the Prevention of Nuclear War
Tremendous progress has been made in reducing global nuclear stockpiles and nuclear risks, but we are now heading in the wrong direction. Poised at the beginning of a new, complex, and dangerous nucle...
https://thebulletin.org/2025/07/the-nobel-laureate-assembly-declaration-for-the-prevention-of-nuclear-war/
8 months ago
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What should Democrats stand for? Democrats should be the party that does not just march to its Leader’s command, but everywhere supports candidates who focus on their local voters' concerns and who work for practical solutions in a broad coalition.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/o...
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8 months ago
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Announcing ruinous tariffs brings world leaders as supplicants to the White House, which makes a POTUS feel strong. Why would he want to stop this for some deal that just benefits others? But still some "hope that that these tariffs are a means and not solely an end."
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/12/b...
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Tariffs or Deals? Trump Seems Content With Punishing Levies.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/12/business/economy/trump-tariffs-deals.html
8 months ago
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reposted by
Roger Myerson
Scott Gehlbach
9 months ago
Are you: ✅ A young scholar in econ, poli sci, or law ✅ Working on institutions, broadly defined ✅ Interested in spending a week in Italy with amazing faculty If so, please apply to this year’s Coase Institute Workshop! It’s a transformative experience for many, and always fun. I’ll be there.
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Ronald Coase Institute: What's New
https://www.coase.org/whatsnew.htm#perugia
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What should Democrats stand for? Democrats should be the party that does not just march to its leader's command, but everywhere supports candidates who focus on their local voters' concerns, with a commitment to negotiate practical solutions as a broad national coalition.
bsky.app/profile/rbmy...
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9 months ago
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Pre-emptive war can seem tempting when we believe that a bold strike can be quickly followed by a new peace on more favorable terms. But in the long history of the world, great leaders’ hopes for quick decisive victories have often proved to be terribly ill-founded, as Germans found in 1914.
9 months ago
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Just before the assault on Senator Padilla, Secretary Noem said that she was there with military forces to “liberate” LA from its elected officials of state and local government. Her words would describe an assault on the principles of federalism on which America was founded.
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9 months ago
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The Rural-Urban Bridge Initiative interviewed dozens of Democratic candidates who outperformed expectations in Republican-leaning rural districts. Key finding: Successful rural candidates prioritize listening and focus on whatever issues local people care about.
ruralurbanbridge.org/our-work/dis...
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Report: Can Democrats Succeed in Rural America? — Rural Urban Bridge
RUBI interviewed dozens of moderate and progressive candidates for US House and Senate, gubernatorial, and state senate seats who outperformed expectations in Republican-leaning rural districts. We co...
https://ruralurbanbridge.org/our-work/distilling-best-practices
10 months ago
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This is an important point, and nobody in America understands Putin better than Michael McFaul.
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10 months ago
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A President of the United States of America should never treat any group so disrespectfully.
x.com/NYSCatholicC...
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NYS Catholic Conference on X: "There is nothing clever or funny about this image, Mr. President. We just buried our beloved Pope Francis and the cardinals are about to enter a solemn conclave to elect a new successor of St. Peter. Do not mock us." / X
There is nothing clever or funny about this image, Mr. President. We just buried our beloved Pope Francis and the cardinals are about to enter a solemn conclave to elect a new successor of St. Peter. Do not mock us.
https://x.com/NYSCatholicConf/status/1918634983712772173
11 months ago
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I am one of many whose entry into research was supported by a NSF Graduate Fellowship. I have tried to repay it in my work throughout my career.
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11 months ago
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Our constitutional democracy can survive a determined attack by a sitting president only if Americans in every part of the country see how they can benefit from competition between two parties that care about their local concerns. Democrats must listen to red-state voters
thehill.com/opinion/camp...
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https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/5249695-defending-democracy-against-authoritarian/
11 months ago
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A FoxNews Opinion tells us that Trump's tariffs were aimed to spook the market & push down interest rates on US bonds, to reduce the cost of rolling over US debt.
www.foxnews.com/opinion/here...
Does POTUS really think that he needs a recession for US treasuries to compete with private investments?
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Here's what Trump is really up to with high-stakes tariff gambit
Policy analyst Tanvi Ratna breaks down what President Trump is really up to with his tariffs, and it is more ambitious that you may think.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/heres-what-trump-really-up-high-stakes-tariff-gambit
12 months ago
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Credit to
@jamessurowiecki.bsky.social
for deciphering the nonsensical formula that the President used to determine his new US tariff rates yesterday. Americans should be ashamed of having major economic policy decisions made for us so thoughtlessly and deceptively.
x.com/JamesSurowie...
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James Surowiecki on X: "Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us. So we" / X
Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us. So we
https://x.com/JamesSurowiecki/status/1907559189234196942
12 months ago
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On the bright side, Americans should have learned all this from history...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuOH...
(Link noted by
@adamkinzinger.bsky.social
, who was paying attention!)
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Hawley–Smoot Tariff - Ferris Bueller's Day Off.
YouTube video by International School History
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuOHbyuanbY
12 months ago
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Atlantic Editor Jeffrey Goldberg is a great American.
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12 months ago
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reposted by
Roger Myerson
Adam Kinzinger
12 months ago
Hey guys remember the Hillary Clinton email server? Seems kinda, small today, doesn’t it?
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