Vietnam’s central bank has directed local commercial banks to maintain stable deposit rates and reduce lending rates to support economic growth, aiming for at least an 8% growth target for 2025. Lending is to be focused in sectors on consumption, exports, digital transformation, and technologies.

China is set to infuse a minimum of $55 billion in new capital into several key banks, including the Agricultural Bank of China, the Bank of Communications, and the Postal Savings Bank of China as part of a larger stimulus effort designed to bolster the banking sector and support the ailing economy.

Bangladesh and Pakistan have initiated direct government-to-government trade for the first time in decades, starting with the import of 50,000 tons of rice from Pakistan. The trade agreement, signed in January, marks a significant step in rebuilding economic relations between the two countries.

Taiwan lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 3.14% from 3.29% due to concerns over US trade policies and domestic budget cuts. Despite these headwinds, exports are projected to grow by 7.08% in 2025, driven by demand for tech exports related to AI.

Hong Kong is facing its longest string of fiscal deficits in two decades, with a projected shortfall of $12.9 billion this year. The government is considering raising taxes on high earners, capping a transport subsidy for seniors, and legalizing basketball sports betting to increase capital.

The head of the Green Climate Fund is urging countries like China and India to take leadership in filling climate financing gaps left by the US as they pull $4 billion in funding. The fund plans to deploy #3 billion this year and aim to invest $50 billion by 2030.

Malaysia's Employees Provident Fund (EPF), the country's largest pension fund, declared its highest dividend rate in seven years with a 6.3% payout for 2024. The success is attributed to recovering markets, resilient economic growth, and sound portfolio management.

Angola plans to raise $1.5 billion in its first euro bond sale in three years to refinance or repay outstanding debt and fund their budget. Authorities are meeting with investors in the US, Middle East, Europe, and Asia ahead of the issuance.

Thailand's finance minister Pichai Chunhavajira is advocating for the central bank to cut rates and weaken the baht to boost exports and tourism. The baht has been the only currency in emerging Asia to advance against the dollar in the past three months, which Pichai sees as a negative for exports

Completions of multifamily houses are expected to drop from 600k in 2024 to under 400k this year and next as the average time it takes to build increases

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Forecast nosedived on Friday after a pessimistic consumer confidence data print last week combined with slowing consumer spending

Saudi Arabis has issued the Middle East's first euro-denominated green bond valued at $1.58 billion, drawing $9.12 billion of investor bids, in order to support the kingdom's Vision 2030 plan to diversify its economy away from oil dependence by the end of the decade

Germany's Finance Minister Joerg Kukies stated that Russia will not be readmitted into the Group of Seven (G7) nations despite the request from US President Trump, emphasizing the G7's condemnation of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine

According to Apollo’s chief economist Torsten Slok, the combined impact of DOGE and tariffs will create a mild, temporary economic shock, leading to slight increases in inflation and modest decreases in GDP.

Expectations for June rate reductions have risen back to nearly 75%, after dipping to a mere 34% two weeks prior.

Us imports have surged in January ahead of Trump's tariffs being implemented

The Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority has decided to delay the implementation of Basel 3.1 (Basel endgame) in the UK until January 2027 to allow for greater clarity to emerge about plans for implementation in the US.

While foreign direct investment into Peru and Mexico has grown over the past two years, it still lags behind their pre-pandemic average and peer econoomies.

India's central bank is revising norms for urban co-operative banks, increasing flexibility in small value loans, residential mortgages, and real estate exposure.

The IMF has advised Namibia's central bank to pause the introduction of a retail central bank digital currency and focus on addressing foundational banking sector issues such as high payment fees, limited interoperability, restricted access for non-banks, and long payment settlement times.

Singapore has announced a $3.74 billion program to boost investments in domestic equities along with a 20% tax rebate for new primary listings and a 10% rebate for new secondary listings .

Kenya is set to receive a $1.5 billion loan from the UAE by the end of next week to help stabilize Kenya's fiscal position as the UAE is increasing its influence in Africa as other major lenders such as China reduce their loans.

The Green Climate Fund has approved $686.8 million in financing for 11 climate projects across 42 countries. The investments aim to mobilize around $1.5 billion and support 115 million people, and key projects include enhancing forest resilience in Serbia and bolstering climate resilience in Togo.

Indonesia's central bank is set to purchase government bonds in the secondary market to fund the government's affordable housing program. They plan to purchase $9.19 billion worth of state bonds this year, with $6.1 billion for debt switching and the rest for housing.

Global foreign direct investment grew to $41 trillion in 2023 (+4.4% y/y; + $1.75). FDI between advanced economies grew by 3.6% ($880 million), while investments from AEs to emerging markets rose by 7.6% ($538 million). The US maintained its position as the top FDI destination.

The probability of a recession in the next 12 months for the US, UK, and Euro Area has ticked up slightly over recent weeks

Ghana's gov't and labor unions have agreed to a 10% salary increase for public servants. The decision comes as they emerge from a severe economic crisis after defaulting on most of its external debt in Dec 2022. President Mahama aims to cut taxes and spending to attract investments and boost growth.

Morocco's government is planning to issue euro-denominated bonds on the international market for the first time since 2023 to support costly reforms and preparations for co-hosting the 2024 World Cup. Their 2025 budget allows for up to $6 billion in new foreign debt.

The EU has suspended a series of sanctions against Syria following the recent ousting of President Basher al-Assad. Restrictions have been lifted in energy, banking, and transporation sectors. In addition, asset freezes for five banks and restrictions on the Syrian central bank have been eased.

Investors are snapping up Latin American assets, betting on potential business friendly political shifts in the Brazilian and Mexican2026 elections YTD equity performance - Venezuela 62% - Colombia 17% - Chile 9% - Mexico 6% - Ecuador 2% - Brazil 2%

Romania's government will cut an estimated 1,800 government jobs from 32 agencies (13.5% of total federal workforce) in an effort to lower the EU's highest deficit at around 6.5% of GDP, above France ~5.9%, Spain ~5.5%, and Italy ~4.8%

Over 7,000 combatants and civilians died in eastern DRC since January as the M23 rebel group has captured the cities of Goma and Bukavu and over 450,000 people have been displaced with 90 displacement camps destroyed www.reuters.com/world/africa...

Europe has been in dire need to create a security market union

Kenya's gross public debt fell by 2% to $84.6 billion (as of December) due an appreciating shilling, which rose 21% last year

Mexico's central bank has cut its 2025 economic growth forecast in half from 1.2% to 0.6%, citing an unexpected contraction in 2024 Q4 and tariff uncertainty In addition, efforts to reduce public spending is expected to limit growth

Russia's central bank has significantly increased its 2025-end inflation forecast from 4.5-5% to 7-8% (currently 9.5% y/y) driven by massive government spending on the Ukraine conflict and deep labor shortages

The World Bank is cautioning Ghana to returning to international capital markets prematurely amid higher borrowing costs, undermining their recent debt restricting gains

Great waterfall chart showing how the fiscal deficit has changed between 2017 and 2024 Unsurprisingly non-discretionary spending accounts for 2/3 of total spending

In the past 30 years Chinese manufacturing as a share of the world has risen from 5% to 32% making it difficult for companies/countries to break ties and reroute supply chains

Been away for two weeks but has felt like ages, been busy and unable to post, but will try to share more things soon

Goods imports make up 11% of US GDP and 43% of US imports come from Canada, Mexico, and China Therefore 5% of US GDP is directly impacted by tariffs on our largest trading partners

India's loan growth slowed the 6th consecutive month in December 2024 to 12.4% y/y (vs 15.6% last year) due to tighter capital requirements for personal loans and credit cards imposed by the Reserve Bank of India

Portugal's budget surplus fell 95% in 2024, to $354 million EUR from $7.6 billion, amid tax cuts for families and business combined with raised wages and pensions Spending rose by 9.2% while revenue only grew 2.5%

The EU is proposing new sanctions on Russia such as video game consoles and other entertainment tools to restrict access to flight simulators and joysticks which could be used in drone technology EU foreign policy chief claims Russia was "really being creative" in finding alternative equipment

Straightforward trend of less "unicorns" (private startup that's achieved a $1 billion valuation) during periods of high interest rates

Only 6% of companies report using AI for regular production today (top chart), even though the types of work tasks automatable by Gen AI would result in several thousand dollars of cost savings per worker (bottom chart) The (good?) thing is most industries expect to expand adoption in 6 months+

Thank you for helping me get to 1,000 followers! 🥳 Hope to continue sharing insightful international macrofinance until we reach 2k!

European stocks have outperformed equities in the US for January, benefiting from solid earnings and on speculation the region will be spared from immediate US tariffs The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is up 6.6%, their biggest monthly gain in two years, while the S&P 500 is up 3.2%

Investors are struggling to reach consensus on DeepSeek's disruption to Magnificent 7 stocks

Even during the DeepSeek AI disruptions this week and after the NASDAQ fell nearly 3% on Monday, its largest ETF saw its largest one-day inflow since 2021 of more than $4.3 billion By sector, technology ETFs easily saw the largest amount of investment flows in January