Georges Florovsky, a prominent Russian Orthodox theologian, addressed the concept of “creeping determinism” in his 1969 essay “The Study of the Past,”.

Cognitive analysis theory.- Utility of anger and disutility of fear. Anger increases the perceived probability of overcoming the problem. Fuzzy trace theory- A gist of information is taken more seriously than a verbatim explanation of the problem. #cognition #pilots #aviation #airlines #bizav

She just wants to fly — add more than 5 to the ref and she’ll keep rolling, leaving the asphalt behind like it was never meant to hold her. #aviation #airplane #pilots

🧵 An overriding Importance of context: When we look at any accident and see the report, it almost seems that the crew was making perfectly rational decisions; it was just that they were using the wrong context (AA 587, use of full L and R rudder, Lion Air and Ethiopian 737 Max for example).

How does one hold a moment in time that’s now? Fleeting as it is, between the now becoming the past from when it was only a hopeful or hopeless future. Every breath is a farewell, and every step is a return—momentarily built to fade like your favorite song. #aviation #aviationlovers

🧵Risk homeostasis. Some captains I have flown with exhibit more clearly than most the problem discussed by economists: risk homeostasis.

I would like to offer this hypothesis most tentatively. The air transport industry supports safety regulations and implementations when the safety requirements primarily Increase production efficiency.

🧵 An excerpt from the book "Normal Accidents," published in 1984: "We will refer to the pilot as 'he'; there are only 100 female airline pilots out of 30,000, likely because there are none in the major supplier, the military."

🧵No company or industry succeeds without insights. It's hard to get insights without committing errors. The issue is that most of us work solely on reducing errors, which seems like a noble cause, yet we forget that mistakes play a crucial part in bringing insights. lnkd.in/g3mnwX4R

Horsie. @alula.bsky.social

One of my favorite city in the World. Basel.

🧵:In our accidents is our salvation. In an attempt to make the system safer, sometimes an ill-conceived technology makes the system more dangerous.

www.airmedandrescue.com/latest/long-... A 🧵My article on sleep. Click on the link above. Here's an excerpt below.

🧵A storyboard. A metaphor. Failure in design, equipment, process, operator, supplies, environment.

🧵 A fallible Human is a design for success. Fallibility is not a function of a Human being but a feature. Instead of doing away with humans in the cockpit, we should propose a more realistic cockpit with two pilots and one machine and add an incredible number of successful flights.

When a Captain abandons his post: What happens when the roles and functions of a corporate/airline crew break down?

Never take the anti-intellectual side of arguments because people who will applaud you are the people you will hate. #rational #aviation

Random: As a crew you will face uncertainty. But you will manage that uncertainty. This is the nature of the beast. During the moments of uncertainty your success will come through reconciling the opposing viewpoints.

At 94 feet wing span and a 97 feet fuselage length. Almost a 1000 sq ft apartment. That swept back wing needs TLC on landing especially during X crosswinds. #aviation

Bird strike. Twice. #aviation

Here’s a Christmas present for you: “ You've always had the power, my dear. You just had to find it for yourself." - Glinda the Good Witch, The Wizard of Oz

Merry Christmas to all.

in 1988, the Cruiser, Vincennes was dispatched to the Persian Gulf. The Iranians had purchased Silkworm missiles from China which had the capability of attacking the US Naval vessels.

The Whale tail that never lets you down. #aviation

How many engines do you see? #aviation

On two flights, two different captains make decisions that lead them into the zone of ignorance—one results in a passenger's death—decision-making matrix of two Captains.

Metaphors and analogies were key to the aviation industry's modernization success. Analogous information created the modern cockpit, hydraulic systems, parts reliability, and navigation.

Singularity? But Automation lies.

Let's look at the research on what separates a great captain from those adorned with strips alone.

Pilots are storytellers, but so are most people. #CockpitChronicles #TalesFromTheSky #FlyingStories #PilotLife

Color coded information. Amber, Cyan, White and monochromatic Green. #aviation #pilots

We treat our retiring pilots with such disdain. You are too old. Go and be a Walmart greeter. Pilots, mechanics, and cabin crews hold much of the tacit knowledge in any airline, and the company needs to have a flow for sharing this tacit knowledge.

Hubert Dreyfus and Stuart Dreyfus (1986) research how people move from novices to experts. (Here, Rules = cognitive tasks, not legal or illegal company rules).

The most typical perspective is that experts know more; they have more facts and rules at their disposal. Here’s a different perspective: expertise is learning how to perceive. #aviation #criticalthinking #cognition #pilots “The power to see the invisible”.

All flights are a fantasy of madness and sanity. A part of it’s optional and other mandatory. Between the lunacy of 40000 moving parts insync, yet assembled by the lowest bidder. #aviation

Humans tend to think in a linear fashion, influenced by patterns of contours, symmetry, and geometric shapes. This pattern of thought can be seen in various aspects of design, including the layout of cockpit displays, which are designed to enhance functionality and ease.

A view to the sky is more than the sum of its parts.

The Captain: A novice and an expert.  Expert decisions are based on negative cues. Experience teaches them pattern recognition, and these patterns are based on the expectations of events they face. An expert Captain sees two sides of the coin. A- Something happened. B- Some things did not happen.

Decision making in different environments: 1- a stable environment permits more precise and complex decisions. 2- a rapidly changing environment favors a more modular plans and improvisations

Between the takeoffs and landings. #aviation

Mighty Kalahari. #aviation

A Pilot's decision matrix. 1-Linear process: A Fault on CAS leads to an automatic checklist, which leads to actions/evaluations, "No Further Actions Required."

A Haiku: The cockpit glows. God paints the sky. Pilot guides his thoughts. #haiku #pilotlife #aviation

A Captain's Dilemma: 1-Functioning in failures of a well-conceived plan. 2-Functioning in failures of an ill-conceived plan.

Jack, goodbye, my sweet friend. Climb unrestricted and head due west. I always yearned to see you and I always knew that no matter how tired you and I would be we would not miss the conversation and the Cigars. #aviation #friends

Giddy up. Horsey. #aviation #bizav

Me and my trusted steed over the Atlantic. #aviation.