A much steadier tone in the market today as volatility eased and tech regained its lead. I’m diving into the mailbag to talk about year-end seasonality and how I’m managing risk into 2026. Full breakdown on CHART THIS → youtu.be/da6E4g8hZq8

As we close out 2025, it’s a great time to reflect—not just on returns, but on lessons. I joined Grayson Roze on StockCharts TV to discuss market psychology, rotation, and how I’m thinking about 2026. Happy Holidays! 🎄❄️📈 youtu.be/XLLaKxabdGc

Markets gapped higher today, but follow-through was limited. Some encouraging signs, some reasons for caution. I walk through what mattered most on today’s CHART THIS: youtu.be/3cd2cHO1_oo

Today felt different. Tech leadership weakened, volatility picked up, and the market tone shifted. Still some good charts, but more caution is warranted. youtu.be/A87Ud4azHFQ

Markets improved into the close, but the message stayed mixed. S&P recovered, NASDAQ finished green, breadth was weak, and energy rolled over as crude broke lower. Full CHART THIS recap: youtu.be/phG9Ej_ofZo

I’m focusing on “change of character”—how a stock shifts from distribution to accumulation. Using Mastercard and Carnival, I show the signals I rely on: higher highs/lows, reclaiming moving averages, and RSI pushing above 60. youtu.be/SLUs175flLU

A calm-looking day, but plenty of rotation underneath. Tech and AI continue to struggle, other sectors are stepping up, and Tesla surprised with a breakout. Bitcoin breaking down adds another layer to the risk discussion. Full CHART THIS episode → youtu.be/KUN35Pr2U3A

Julius de Kempenaer joins me to break down what RRGs are signaling in late 2025: slowing tech momentum, defensive rotation, and why confirmation matters near all-time highs. youtu.be/JMbjtIoXx1c

Seasonality isn’t a guarantee—it’s context. I talked with Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac about 2025 surprises and what the midterm year of 2026 has historically meant for stocks, gold, and Bitcoin! Watch here: youtu.be/0i2HW1COOS0

I always find December to be the best time to slow down, reflect, and reset. If that resonates with you, I’d love for you to join this year’s conversation. Join me for our latest FREE webcast!

Definitely not toppy. $QQQ

Trying to make sense of the market moves that shaped your decisions this year? Same here. Let’s walk through it together in a relaxed, honest session.

AI leadership stumbled today as Broadcom sank, dragging tech and semis lower. Markets sold off despite low volatility, and I tackled great mailbag questions on divergences, Ichimoku Cloud analysis, and growth vs value rotation. Watch CHART THIS → youtu.be/4ysrXm2jSIM

I’ve been digging through this year’s trades and patterns, and wow—there’s a lot to learn from the mix of wins and misses. If you’re doing your own reflection, come hang out with me at Winners, Losers & Lessons. marketmisbehavior.com/lessons

Post-Fed whipsaw day: • S&P opened weak, closed just above 6900 • Value led: financials, materials, industrials • Tech, comm services, energy lagged • VIX under 15, breadth decent, cruise lines and gold miners strong Today’s CHART THIS → youtu.be/US-ND_cIv3A

Fed cut 25bps and stocks ripped. S&P touched 6900, breadth strong, SMID caps led — but key growth names like Microsoft and Meta didn’t join the rally. Today’s CHART THIS → youtu.be/2Hq5yP4mD2w

$META over 680 could be a pretty decent chart, as that would represent a new swing high as well as a break above moving average and Fibonacci resistance. But it needs to get above 680 first!

Future textbooks on technical analysis may feature this chart of silver $SLV. Symmetrical triangle or "coil" pattern after a big run higher into October. Pattern resolves to the upside, indicating a new accumulation phase with stronger momentum. #breakoutsarebullish

Literally a coin flip right now as to whether an $SPX stock is above its 50-day moving average. McClellan Oscillator is hanging just above the zero line, and both indicators suggest short-term breadth still ok... but very close to being not-really-ok.

Why are moving averages a part of our process? Because they remove noise and define the direction of the trend. Why are Fibonacci retracements part of our process? Because they help provide structure for risk/reward assessments. See $META for a current example of combining these two approaches!

Fed week and the market stalled. Early strength faded, breadth weakened, and fewer S&P names remain above the 50-day. Silver’s breaking out while semis hang in, but distribution signs are building. Watch CHART THIS → youtu.be/6Ntuc_wphII

Salesforce $CRM finally pushing above the 200-day moving average for the first time since May 2025. With RSI pushing above the important 60 level, and price finally breaking above moving average resistance, $CRM could be setting up for a new accumulation phase. See September 2024...

Noting a confirmed head and shoulders top for bond prices $TLT, suggesting higher rates $TNX going into the last Fed meeting of 2025.

Last Friday, the equity-only put call ratio hit its lowest level since May. Spikes lower in this sentiment gauge have usually led to $SPX weakness over the next 3-5 sessions.

Only 31% of $SPX members have actually outperformed $SPX so far in 2025. schrts.co/kbccMHtc Only three $SPX sectors have outperformed the $SPX in 2025 (see attached). For a "broad advance", there's an uncomfortably large number of stocks that are underperforming!

Fed week opens with a stealth distribution day: S&P barely down, but 10 of 11 sectors in the red, breadth weak, and bond charts breaking as yields push higher. Full CHART THIS breakdown → youtu.be/F5ws1TP8WsQ

Are we in AI-driven optimism—or euphoria? I talked with Steve Sosnick about bubble parallels, why dips still get bought, and how investors can hedge as markets get more concentrated. Watch here: youtu.be/trzUqoXHHZE

Bull or bear for the Nasdaq next? I map out 4 realistic scenarios for the next market phase—no predictions, just probabilities. Which path do you see ahead? 📈📉 👉 articles.stockcharts.com/article/bull...

Quiet session to end the week with the S&P slightly higher and the VIX settling into the mid-15s. Crypto weakness stood out, and breadth was weaker. In today’s CHART THIS, I walked through your top questions on RSI vs. RS, RRGs, cup-and-handle setups, and more. Full episode → youtu.be/753vEGMYBJs

New video today! I break down four potential paths for the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) as we move through December and into early 2025. Great exercise to challenge your biases and think in probabilities. Which scenario feels most likely to you? 📽️ Watch: youtu.be/H-D3PGSOe7w

Choppy session today with $SPX barely finishing higher as the VIX dipped < 16. Some charts broke out, others rolled over hard — including a bearish evening star on INTC. Check out the mixed sector picture, sentiment shifts, and a few standout setups (IVZ, OIH). Full episode → youtu.be/EHjO-W83oa0

Where are the real opportunities in fixed income right now? I spoke with BondBloxx’s Joanne Bianco about credit spreads, the Fed, bond ETFs (Treasuries, IG, high yield, private credit), and how to think about risk into 2026. Watch here: youtu.be/kd5sbU_I3I0

Interesting rotation today: small caps outperformed, energy and financials led, and banks broke to new highs while some former leaders (NFLX, MSFT) continued to struggle. I walked through the S&P “traffic light” levels, Bitcoin’s rebound, and a big move in semis. CHART THIS → youtu.be/ahnjjnaxjtw

$GM in a clear uptrend phase with higher highs and higher lows. Price sits above two upward-sloping moving averages. Only negative mark here is a bearish momentum divergence, with price moving higher on weaker RSI readings. "The trend is your friend."

High beta $SPHB outperformed low volatility $SPLV from the April low through the end of October. November saw a dramatic reversal as investors went risk-off. How bearish do I want to be if this ratio keeps trending higher into year end?..... $SPX

Initial bullish sign for #Bitcoin with a move above "big round number" resistance at 90K. The "all clear" signal back in April involved the RSI pushing above 60, representing a strong bullish momentum thrust. Will we get a similar signal in December?...

Equity-only put call ratio on Monday spiked down to 0.45 or lower. Has happened five other times since the April market low. In all previous instances, $SPX has been lower over the next week.

A quiet day for the indexes but plenty happening underneath. Tech and semis led, breadth weakened, and Bitcoin bounced sharply off the lows. I walk through the key signals to watch as December begins. Full CHART THIS → youtu.be/mu-iQxv3X-I

I just released my “Top 10 Charts for December 2025.” From FOX, RL, and RTX to short candidates like NFLX and COIN, I walk through sector setups using moving averages, RSI, and Fibonacci, and all sorts of other technical analysis goodness. Full video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6hr...

The quiet Thanksgiving drift higher gave way to a Monday pullback. In today’s CHART THIS, I dig into why post-holiday weeks often bring the real signal. New episode here: youtu.be/QQR4y54KPJ0

Still patiently waiting for $NVDA to rip higher after that stellar earnings report last week. 🤔

Most bullish evidence this week? How about the $VIX dropping back below 20. That suggests milder daily swings for $SPY $QQQ, less fear of a waterfall decline, more confidence that things are going to be just fine.

No denying the stronger breadth readings this week. Back up to 61% of $SPX names above their 200-day moving averages, and 57% above their 50-day. Not bad!

$SPX threatening to overtake the trendline based on the Oct-Nov highs. Would expect that to happen given lighter volume up days around a holiday. The real question is whether major equity indexes resume a new uptrend phase after the turkey day hangover!

Another solid rebound day into Thanksgiving week. On today’s CHART THIS I break down the S&P’s drift higher, the post-NVDA setup, and what early December may have in store. Watch here: youtu.be/VIExJ4VF-Hc

Question of the Day: How bearish do I want to be when $AAPL is making new all-time highs?

For now, $GLD rallying off support at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Momentum readings have remained in the bullish range (above 40) for basically all of 2025! Currently testing trendline resistance from Oct-Nov highs...

A short-term rally for #Bitcoin that stalls out at or below 93K would be a solid validation of the ongoing distribution phase!

$QQQ Bullish Percent Index $BPNDX could be a crucial chart to watch. Tagged the 30% level last week, similar March 2025 also August 2024. The former ended up being a short-lived rally, the latter was followed by upside acceleration. Will the BPI get above 70%?

Strong start to Thanksgiving week with a sharp Monday rally. Is the tone shifting or is this just a reaction bounce? Digging into the charts in today’s CHART THIS. youtu.be/-HalcoCTfgc