For 1st time in OZ history, number of asylum seekers refused at primary stage and not departed for exceeds 100k. 100,157 at end August 2025.

Optus outage goes back to fact OZ is a huge, low population density continent with 3 overlapping privately owned mobile networks. That has led to underinvestment in infrastructure resilience & coverage. Sale of Telstra was a disaster we continue to pay for.

Rather than apologise for rubbish peddled to fuel anti-immigration marches, the IPA continue to make fools of themselves. Net migration prior to pandemic was 230,000. In 12 months to March 2025, it was 315,000. That’s not double. ipa.org.au/publications...

So will these many media outlets & think tanks that got it wrong on net migration now apologise to the ABS & report the correct figures to their audiences? I doubt it. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

NOM in MarchQ25 was 110,062. Significantly lower than the 190,000+ it needed to be to support media & think tank assertions NOM was rising not falling. NOM for 12 months to March25 was 315,924.

For media & think tanks arguing NOM in 24-25 & 2025 increased & is increasing, March Q25 NOM (out tomorrow) will have to be over 190K. It is more likely to be between 100K & 130K which would mean NOM in 24-25 fell.

Since start of post-war migration, we have always granted permanent visas to whole nuclear families. The idea we would grant permanent visas to just the primary skilled applicant & not to spouse/kids is nonsense. www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...

While India’s fertility rate is now below replacement (and will fall further), its population will continue to grow for a few more decades because of its younger age structure & rising life expectancy. www.newsweek.com/india-fertil...

Migration (non-asylum) appeals at ART at end July25 were a record 59187. Of these 39195 were student refusals; 1080 student cancellations & 2019 temporary graduate refusals. One of the flow on consequences of letting student numbers get out of control.

Despite some sensible reforms to skilled temporary visas, it’s still not working as it should. Too many former students getting these on basis of cookery courses & not enough construction tradies. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

NPLT movement for July25 around 2,000 higher than July24. That will send some media into a frenzy about net migration (NOM) not falling. NOM is falling & that will be confirmed next week when NOM for MarchQ25 is released. But NOM is not falling as fast as Treasury is forecasting in 25-26.

If neo-Nazi Thomas Sewell is a dual OZ/NZ citizen, under current law his deportation to NZ is highly unlikely. Calls to change citizenship law to enable deportation of neo-Nazis would be poor policy. Political ideology should be dealt with at the ballot box. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

It was Dutton/Pezzullo who let this situation get out of hand. Now we have an impossible public policy challenge no Govt will have the money to address. www.news.com.au/finance/econ...

My eldest daughter writing about the migrant experience. A good way to reflect given current controversies. www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/li...

There is no evidence of a looming deportation drive. If there was we would see it in a huge budget measure for increased staff, detention centres, guards, etc. www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/albanes...

If he is an OZ citizen and he didn’t lie on his application, there is no legal basis to deport Sewell (no matter how horrible he is). www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...

I talked to Michelle Grattan about the immigration policy vacuum left by politicians on both sides that has opened the door to extremists. podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/p...

I discussed today’s Migration Program announcement on ABC Afternoon Briefing. iview.abc.net.au/video/NU2522...

I talked to Ellen Fanning about the anti-migration marches this Sunday. Segment starts from 1.36.10. www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...

While all Aussies have the right to protest immigration levels, the forthcoming anti-Immigrstion marches are being whipped up by misuse of migration data by the usual media suspects. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

johnmenadue.com/post/2025/08... %26 Irritations

A contrast to the unfouunded allegations by right wing media about a month ago that the Govt had reduced English language requirements for migration purposes. www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08...

When did owning lots of guns become a ‘traditional Australian value’? www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

Refused at primary stage but not departed asylum seekers at end July25 reached 98,979. This has been rising steadily since 2015-16 & will keep rising without further govt action. Thus us a very bad outcome & makes us look more like Nth America & Europe.

While we are still a long way from the PM’s promise to get net migration back to pre-pandemic levels, the rubbish being produced by the Daily Mail & the Coalition plucking net migration targets out of thin air don’t help public understanding of the issue.

According to Trump, Russia is a big powerful country & Ukraine is not. Therefore Ukraine should agree to Putin’s demand for more Ukrainian land. The Art of the Deal!! www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2...

Hastie rushing to recommit to Dutton’s 160,000 net migration target makes no sense if he hasn’t worked out how he would deliver that. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

Net permanent & longterm movements for 24-25 was 457,560 compared to 469,140 for 23-24. That will get parts of the media hyperventilating. But that won’t mean net migration in 24-25 will be anywhere near that high. The corroborating data suggests it will be much lower. Likely well below 400,000.

Public discussion on high net migration has focused on students. But WHMs also make a major contribution to net migration. Both Labor & Coalition targets for net migration cannot be achieved without tightening WHM policy. But Nationals won’t support that. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

The risk of acting illegally on tarrifs. If Trump loses this case (likely at Fed appeals level but may be not at Supreme Court), he may need to identify and repay millions of US companies and households). www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

This is a classic Murdoch beat up. Standards have not been lowered.

This rush to placate universities with a higher NPL for overseas students before Govt has decided 25-26 migration program & whether it can deliver PM’s promise to get net migration to pre-pandemic levels puts the cart before the horse. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

Must have been a ‘nasty woman’ producing such awful jobs data. Her Trump appointed replacement will ensure much better jobs data in future!

I talked to John Stanley on 2gb about the dilemmas the govt is facing in setting the 25-26 migration program.

I was on ABC 7.30 last night discussing why the Govt hasn’t landed on a migration program for 25-26. Options are legally & politically awful. iview.abc.net.au/show/7-30

While govt may cut visa fees for ELICOS students, numbers will never return to 22-23 boom levels. Likely govt will require a mandatory ‘no further stay’ condition that will keep numbers down. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

The Art of the Deal!!!

Creighton says net migration will increase from 340,000 in 2024 to at least 550,000 in 550,000 in 2025. There is buckley’s chance net migration in 2025 will get within 150,000 of Creighton’s estimate. It’s just pure IPA scaremongering.

Unsuccessful asylum seekers in OZ now approaching 100,000. Both major parties blame each other. Neither proposes a policy solution. www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/faile...

Delays in publication of govt reports such as this to avoid them being out before an election does nothing for public trust in govt. Both major parties do it (eg Taylor delaying release of an energy cost report before 2022 Election). independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

This article carefully avoids mentioning the Malaysia Agreement which was the last chance we had of avoiding the policies this article tails against. Is that because it was asylum advocates who encouraged the Greens to vote it down?

It’s a weird world when a hard man politician like Mahathir sounds sensible.

Despite using the most modern precision weapons, Israel seems to regularly miss its target, kill innocent people & destroy non-military buildings, apologise, promise to investigate and find no one was at fault. And then do it all over again. www.cnn.com/2025/07/17/m...

Article looks at drivers of change in net migration over 15 years to covid & prospects for longterm net migration under current policy compared to Treasury’s long term net migration forecast. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

If they dont want to give the food to foreign children, arent there enough hungry children in America? www.theatlantic.com/health/archi...

Yes after the files have been carefully curated.

Perhaps Trump intends to make a change to the US Character test. A probibition on saying things that hurt Trump’s feelings? www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07...

What does Isreal accepting responsibility for killing children queuing up for water actually mean given they kill children so regularly? Certainly doesn’t mean they are going to stop killing children. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Apparently this judge thinks having dark skin & speaking a language other than English does not qualify as ‘probable cause’ to be arrested by ICE! Who knew? How will ICE now meet Trump Admin’s 3,000 per day ICE arrest target? www.cnn.com/2025/07/11/p...

As always, the brilliant Louise Adler says what the Govt and Murdoch will not. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...