Clogging of OZ visa system accelerated under Dutton/Pezzullo. But Burke’s determinination to avoid developing a longterm immigration plan will mean that gets worse.

Politicians in both major parties continue to fail us on immigration policy. That is opening the door for Pauline Hanson - a politician who we all know has zero policy or administrative nous. Just lots of hate.

Immigration can be too high or too low or poorly targeted. Getting balance right is tricky. Too low immigration means population ages faster & reaches point where deaths exceed births more quickly. Most economists are not accustomed to that.

Why wouldn’t farmers do this on their own initiative? Costs would be tax deductible.

Boom in WHMs largely due to changes made by Coalition Govt. Significantly reducing NOM requires undoing those changes. But that largely requires renegotiating agreements with a lot of Govts around the world. Nationals won’t agree to any restrictions on WHMs. www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...

This headline is untrue. Comyn was referring to a migration program of 180k compared to current 185k. That would make negligible difference to housing demand. More importantly he referred to ‘predictable’ levels of immigration. We don’t have that. www.9news.com.au/national/com...

While the numbers involved are small, this is really poor practice as it misleads the public on the level of permanent migration.

While I agree with the decision, I cannot recall a s501 cancellation (not refusal) based on political belief (assuming Nazis aren’t a designated terrorist org). If decision personally made by minister, it can’t be appealed to ART. He must go to Fed Court.

Similar to situation in OZ (just bigger), US has 3.8m deportation cases on hand (will grow rapidly with extra $US100billion for ICE) & only 800 immigration judges & 100,000 extra detention beds. Trump’s deportation agenda was always going to be a quagmire. www.migrationpolicy.org/research/dys...

Strong labour market will mean net migration is unlikely to fall to 260,000 in 25-26 as forecast by Treasury. But it wont increase to well over 400,000 as suggested by the IPA. www.abs.gov.au/media-centre...

These people have learned nothing about the difference between NPLT & net migration. But they have no interest in learning when peddling shit to One Nation types is the objective.

Even if CBO estimates of additional deportations due to $US100B funding are too low by 100%, that will make Trump angry given his promise to deport 10m-20m people. Perhaps it was always just about brutality, scaremongering & feeding his base? independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

While merits of Canada’s longterm immigration program are debatable, the fact they have a longterm plan & are delivering it shows arguments of OZ govt against such planning are just silly. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

After 18 months of decline, signs are for a major rebound in offshore student applications. But what will that mean for net migration & the permanent migration program? Both major parties refuse to commit to a longterm migration plan. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

Total temp entrants in OZ at end Sept set a new record for end of any quarter at 2.905m. At end Sept22, it was 2.136m; at end Sept23 it was 2.626m; at end Sept24 it was 2.780m. After a weak June quarter for temp entrants, Sept was strong.

Huge partner application backlog is due to blow out in net migration & illegal restriction of partner places. No easy way out of this political/legal mess. Needs a longterm plan to manage both net and permanent migration. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

If you keep misrepresenting what the actual level of immigration is, as the Murdoch press has been doing, is this any surprise?

Under current policy, hard to see net migration falling much below 300,000 without a much weaker labour market. Coalition’s promised net migration of 160,000 would require brave policy changes plus very weak labour market. www.afr.com/policy/econo...

A surprising 51 asylum applications in Sept25 from UK nationals. May just be WHMs trying to extend stay with work rights.

A good overview of the recent misunderstandings about what is happening to net migration. www.afr.com/policy/econo...

Burke is right to say net migration is hard to manage but that is not an excuse to not set a longterm net migration target range & establish a policy framework to manage to that. The void just opens the door to extremism. www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...

There was buckley’s chance she could have won this appeal. Her lawyers would have told her that. She just wasted her money. www.news.com.au/national/cou...

Crucial immigration policy qyestion is when net migration will stop falling & at what level? Quite likely net migrstion will stop falling in 2025 & at well above pre-pandemic levels. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

DHA says backlog of partner visa apps is 98,000 (beating Dutton’s record). With 40,500 planning level in 25-26 & new apps in 25-26 of 60,000, backlog will keep growing despite law requiring these to be processed on a demand driven basis. A class action now seems inevitable.

While govt may not have assisted their return, the ISIS brides would have been on Movment Alert List so DHA & relevant law enforcement orgs would have known when they boarded a plane to OZ & when they landed. Ministers would have been advised. www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...

If child of an OZ citizen applies for citizenship by decent, on what legal basis could that be refused? If that child applies for a passport, on what legal basis could that be refused? Seems critics of this have contempt for OZ law.

I’ll be in Sydney Radio (2GB) tonight at 8.30pm discussing implications of the bridging visa backlog growing from 100k about 10 years ago to 400k today.

Sorry tale of time & cost blow outs of OZ’s newest & biggest gas fired power station. It will be far less responsive than any big battery. Yet we are expected to believe much more complex nuclear power stations will be built on time & budget? reneweconomy.com.au/the-abject-s...

Recent JSA report provides an excelkent basis for reform of immigration policy, inc delivery of PM’s promise to get net migration to pre pandemic levels & deal with the rising pressures on the permanent Migration Program. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

Collapse in chinese student numbers over next 15 years inevitable rather than just highly likely. www.timeshighereducation.com/news/collaps...

No of people in OZ on a bridging visa has exceeded 400k for 1st time in our history. That reflects a visa system in deep trouble. But does the govt have a plan to address that?

When he says this, is he proposing OZ abandon the 1989 Parliamentary motion on a non-discriminatory migration program? Which races/religions, etc does he propose we favour/oppose? Perhaps he could clarify? www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09...

For 1st time in OZ history, number of asylum seekers refused at primary stage and not departed for exceeds 100k. 100,157 at end August 2025.

Optus outage goes back to fact OZ is a huge, low population density continent with 3 overlapping privately owned mobile networks. That has led to underinvestment in infrastructure resilience & coverage. Sale of Telstra was a disaster we continue to pay for.

Rather than apologise for rubbish peddled to fuel anti-immigration marches, the IPA continue to make fools of themselves. Net migration prior to pandemic was 230,000. In 12 months to March 2025, it was 315,000. That’s not double. ipa.org.au/publications...

So will these many media outlets & think tanks that got it wrong on net migration now apologise to the ABS & report the correct figures to their audiences? I doubt it. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

NOM in MarchQ25 was 110,062. Significantly lower than the 190,000+ it needed to be to support media & think tank assertions NOM was rising not falling. NOM for 12 months to March25 was 315,924.

For media & think tanks arguing NOM in 24-25 & 2025 increased & is increasing, March Q25 NOM (out tomorrow) will have to be over 190K. It is more likely to be between 100K & 130K which would mean NOM in 24-25 fell.

Since start of post-war migration, we have always granted permanent visas to whole nuclear families. The idea we would grant permanent visas to just the primary skilled applicant & not to spouse/kids is nonsense. www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...

While India’s fertility rate is now below replacement (and will fall further), its population will continue to grow for a few more decades because of its younger age structure & rising life expectancy. www.newsweek.com/india-fertil...

Migration (non-asylum) appeals at ART at end July25 were a record 59187. Of these 39195 were student refusals; 1080 student cancellations & 2019 temporary graduate refusals. One of the flow on consequences of letting student numbers get out of control.

Despite some sensible reforms to skilled temporary visas, it’s still not working as it should. Too many former students getting these on basis of cookery courses & not enough construction tradies. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

NPLT movement for July25 around 2,000 higher than July24. That will send some media into a frenzy about net migration (NOM) not falling. NOM is falling & that will be confirmed next week when NOM for MarchQ25 is released. But NOM is not falling as fast as Treasury is forecasting in 25-26.

If neo-Nazi Thomas Sewell is a dual OZ/NZ citizen, under current law his deportation to NZ is highly unlikely. Calls to change citizenship law to enable deportation of neo-Nazis would be poor policy. Political ideology should be dealt with at the ballot box. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

It was Dutton/Pezzullo who let this situation get out of hand. Now we have an impossible public policy challenge no Govt will have the money to address. www.news.com.au/finance/econ...

My eldest daughter writing about the migrant experience. A good way to reflect given current controversies. www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/li...

There is no evidence of a looming deportation drive. If there was we would see it in a huge budget measure for increased staff, detention centres, guards, etc. www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/albanes...

If he is an OZ citizen and he didn’t lie on his application, there is no legal basis to deport Sewell (no matter how horrible he is). www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...

I talked to Michelle Grattan about the immigration policy vacuum left by politicians on both sides that has opened the door to extremists. podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/p...